Pitching did us in last night. Michael Pineda wasn’t at his best for the second straight start against the Angels while Amir Garrett also didn’t provide the strikeout figures I was hoping for. He was a risky play that simply didn’t deliver. Miguel Sano and Jonathan Schoop both hit home runs while Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler did some damage, but without quality pitching it’s tough to get into the cash. Let’s get some better pitching and some better results with tonight’s picks!
P – Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – $10,900 vs. BAL
Carlos Carrasco is enjoying a nice season for the Indians and has plenty of upside tonight against the Orioles. Carrasco sports a nice 24.9% strikeout clip on the season and strikes out hitters from both sides of the plate at a fairly even clip. He sports a 2.54 FIP to right-handed batters which can help mitigate the effect guys like Machado and Trumbo can have on an Orioles’ team that ranks seventh with 627 strikeouts on the season.
P – James Paxton (SEA) – $7,700 vs. DET
Paxton continues to have a real nice season for the Mariners as he enters play tonight sporting a 3.23 ERA and an even better 2.67 FIP on the season. Better yet, Paxton carries a very nice 27.9% strikeout rate to right-handed batters and is likely to see as many as 9 of them tonight. He also sports a 2.75 FIP to opposite-handed hitting so while on the surface is may seem like stacking righties limits Paxton’s upside, the opposite appears to be true, especially in the ever-so-valuable strikeout department.
C – Evan Gattis (HOU) – $2,900 vs. OAK
I truly believe we are getting a huge bargain on Gattis tonight. Gattis sports an impressive .216 ISO against left-handed pitching this season and his .667 OPS is simply being dragged down by an unsustainable .167 BABIP versus southpaws. After all, he hit lefties to a .256 ISO and an .886 OPS last season with a much more reasonable .304 BABIP. The positive regression against lefties begins tonight for the projected cleanup hitter for Houston.
1B – Matt Holliday (NYY) – $4,400 vs. LAA
The Yankees are implied to score more than six runs tonight against the Angels so let’s get some exposure to one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Holliday is one of several Yankees’ players to clobber right-handed pitching this season as evidenced by his .259 ISO and .904 OPS against them. Considering Angels’ right-hander Ricky Nolasco is giving up home runs to righties at a 3.00 HR/9 clip this season we could have a gem here with the Yankees’ projected cleanup hitter tonight.
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) – $4,500 vs. CWS
The Twins scored nine runs in last night’s game that was started by a lefty so let’s go ahead and target a lefty again tonight as David Holmberg takes the hill for the White Sox. Dozier is crushing lefties again this year with a 1.022 OPS to go along with a powerful .244 ISO and 40.5% hard hit rate against them. Holmberg boasts traditional splits and is much worse to right-handed bats so a Twins’ right-handed stack is in the cards tonight.
3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) – $3,900 vs. CWS
Huge bargain here with Sano. The Twins’ most powerful bat smacked a first inning homer off of Derek Holland in last night’s game and I see no reason why a repeat performance isn’t in the cards tonight. After all, Sano is hitting lefties to a .327 ISO and a 1.089 OPS on the season. Hitting third in the Twins’ lineup, Sano should have some RBI chances in front of him tonight while I would say his home run upside is among the best on the slate.
SS – Corey Seager (LAD) – $4,700 vs. NYM
While Seager is likely to be a very high-owned player tonight, I am still going to roll with the young Dodgers’ shortstop as he crushes righties, especially at home. Seager sports a .202 ISO and .893 OPS against righties this season, but sports a .250 ISO and a .924 OPS against righties at home. He also has a .300 ISO and a 1.036 OPS in the month of June after last night’s three-homer game. After a slow May Seager has caught fire in June and I plan to hop on the bandwagon while he’s hot.
OF – Brett Gardner (NYY) – $4,200 vs. LAA
I have a feeling that the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium is going to get some action tonight from Gardner. While Nolasco is giving up plenty of homers to righties, he is still giving up 1.80 HR/9 to lefties and considering his 43% fly ball rate to lefties that is a dangerous combination in this venue. Gardner has hit righties to a .224 ISO and .861 OPS on the season and carries with him a hint of stolen base upside as well.
OF – Robbie Grossman (MIN) – $3,200 vs. CWS
Grossman isn’t having the same excellent season he enjoyed last year against left-handed pitching. He has just a 0.60 ISO and .741 OPS against lefties this season after clobbering them to the tune of a .232 ISO and .994 OPS in 2016. The real Robbie Grossman probably lies somewhere in between this season and last season, so expect some more power for a guy projected to hit in the cleanup spot for a team implied to score more than 5.5 runs tonight.
OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – $3,600 vs. ARI
I will gladly take full advantage of the grossly underpriced Gonzalez tonight in the superb hitting-friendly confines of Coors Field. Gonzalez will take on Diamondbacks’ right-hander Taijuan Walker who has been home run prone in this big league career which is not a good thing at Coors. Besides, Gonzalez has already touched Walker up for a home run and a double in just three at-bats against the young right-hander. He is excellent exposure to this Coors Field game tonight at a more than reasonable cost.