Last night’s lineup had some ups and some downs. Luis Severino ended up being hit hard by the Angels, while the more impressive performance came from rookie Andrew Moore in his big league debut as he tossed seven quality innings and picked up the win against the Tigers. Austin Barnes had an excellent night and delivered huge value while Aaron Judge continued his torrid rookie campaign with a three-run homer. Let’s keep a solid week going with tonight’s picks!
P – Chris Archer (TB) – $12,500 vs. BAL
It’s pretty hard to fade Archer tonight. He sports a strikeout clip of roughly 30% to both sides of plate while he faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth in the league with 653 strikeouts on the season. Archer also gets to pitch in his pitcher-friendly home ball park of Tropicana Field where he sports an incredible 2.07 FIP and a 35.6% strikeout clip on the season. He is not cost-friendly, but Archer could very well end up as the top scoring pitcher on the slate tonight.
P – Dinelson Lamet (SD) – $6,200 vs. DET
We went with a rookie pitcher against the Tigers last night and it worked out fine so let’s test that same theory here tonight with Lamet. Lamet most recent struck out 12 Brewers across six quality innings as he now sports a massive 13.88 K/9 through his first five big league starts. The strikeouts should come as no surprise as he sported an 11.54 K/9 figure in Triple-A prior to his call up to the show. The Tigers are a scuffling team who rank 5th with 493 strikeouts on the season against right-handed pitching. Add it in the fact that Petco Park in SD is one of the most pitching-friendly venues in the league and we have a huge upside matchup here with Lamet.
C – Cameron Rupp (PHI) – $2,900 vs. ARI
Back to the well with Rupp. We have to be cost-conscious in some areas tonight and considering Rupp’s matchup and the huge hitting-friendly venue at Chase Field in Arizona and we have ourselves a nice play. Rupp sports a .245 ISO and a .927 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching while his opponent Patrick Corbin sports a 5.30 FIP and a 1.80 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. This is the second straight year Rupp has mashed left-handed pitching and he comes at a huge discount with his sub-3K price this evening.
1B – Tommy Joseph (PHI) – $3,400 vs. PHI
Similar reasoning here with Joseph. The second year first baseman has clobbered lefties since his big league debut last season and owns a big .281 ISO on the season against southpaws. Interestingly, that is the exact ISO Joseph finished the season with in 2016. However, his current OPS of .782 is being dragged down by a tiny .214 BABIP versus lefties, so expect more luck in the singles/doubles department from Joseph while enjoying the power he produces against southpaws.
2B – Brandon Drury (ARI) – $4,300 vs. PHI
We will have a bit of a game stack on our hands here tonight as the Diamondbacks will take on first-time big league starter Mark Leiter Jr. The D-Backs stack will begin here with Drury who owns an extremely productive .222 ISO and a .922 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching. Drury does own an elevated .367 BABIP against righties, but he is also making hard contact 37% of the time against righties so negative regression doesn’t appear imminent. Drury also owns a .298 ISO and a 1.028 OPS in the month of June so let’s roll with the sophomore second baseman while he is hot.
3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) – $5,200 vs. PHI
Here we have one of the largest righty-mashers in the entire MLB. Lamb owns an incredible .302 ISO and a 1.051 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching while also hitting 14 homers and knocking in 54 runs against righties on the season. Understandably Lamb hits much better at the hitting-friendly confines of Chase Field in Arizona where there should be plenty of runs being scored in this game tonight.
SS – Trea Turner (WAS) – $5,200 vs. CIN
Young pitching seems to be a theme on tonight’s slate as Trea Turner and the Nationals face another young arm making his big league debut tonight in Luis Castillo. Castillo has produced solid results in Double-A this season, but facing one of the top offenses in the bigs is a tall task for the young right-hander. Turner is a multi-category asset that could put up a ton of fantasy points in many different ways. Most notably, he has 26 stolen bases this season against right-handed pitching to go along with a nice .188 ISO and an .802 OPS against righties on the season. He should get plenty of at-bats tonight in the leadoff spot so expect big things from the young shortstop.
OF – Daniel Descalso (ARI) – $3,600 vs. PHI
The Diamondbacks’ stack ends here with Descalso who could provide big value as he is projected to hit directly behind Drury and just a few spots behind Lamb. This alone should present Descalso with some solid run-producing opportunities. He has a solid .184 ISO and .747 OPS on the season against righties. However, considering he is making hard contact 38.7% of the time against righties his low .254 BABIP should increase moving forward and tonight is a great opportunity for that positive regression to kick in against the rookie pitcher.
OF – Aaron Altherr (PHI) – $3,700 vs. ARI
Altherr sports the best numbers of all Phillies against left-handed pitching this season as evidenced by his .353 ISO and .914 OPS on the season against southpaw pitching. He also has a 41.1% hard contact clip against lefties. He will form a high-upside, low-owned stack tonight as the vast majority of players with forget about the Phillies and simply stack the Diamondbacks in this game. Considering their numbers against lefties and the venue where this game will take place, the Phillies are a solid GPP option tonight.
OF – Dwight Smith Jr. (TOR) – $3,000 vs. KC
This was the final spot in the roster to fill but we will roll with Toronto’s newest outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. Smith has a little bit of power and stolen base upside as he has recorded 5 steals at Triple-A this season after stealing 12 in the 2016 season. He also has six homers and an .807 OPS at the Triple-A level this season and an .809 OPS at the MLB level this season. There is a chance he will hit near the top of the order tonight as he did against Texas two days ago, however he holds some upside in multiple categories tonight against the Royals.