Last night’s lineup simply didn’t pan out. Somehow Ricky Nolasco managed to throw a gem against the Dodgers while Carlos Carrasco was beat up by the Rangers. Tyler Austin was our lone bright spot with a homer and easily eclipsing his value, but the rest of the lineup fell flat on its face. Let’s piece together a better group today!
P – Luis Severino (NYY) – $10,100 vs. CWS
For the top pitcher of the night I will roll with Luis Severino. Severino sports a lofty 26.9% strikeout rate on the season while his solid 3.30 ERA is supported by his 3.35 FIP and 3.18 xFIP. He is also a better pitcher on the road as his strikeout clip increases to 27.8%, his home run rate drops from 1.43 HR/9 at home to 0.62 HR/9 on the road and his FIP drops to 2.74 and his xFIP to 2.97. Severino also gets a White Sox team tonight that ranks 27th in the league with a .701 team OPS against right-handed pitching.
P – Jhoulys Chacin (SD) – $6,800 vs. ATL
There have been times this season I have targeted Chacin due to his poor numbers to left-handed hitters. However, Chacin’s numbers improve dramatically at home. His road FIP sits at 5.75, however his home FIP drops two full runs to 3.73. He is exceptional to right-handed hitters at home with a 2.92 FIP and a 28.1% strikeout rate, thus neutralizing Atlanta’s righties including the powerful Matt Kemp. It’s not a surprise Chacin is better at home as Petco Park in San Diego is one of the league’s most pitching-friendly venues. With Atlanta’s projected run total under 4 we have a solid opportunity with the cost-efficient Chacin tonight.
C – James McCann (DET) – $2,900 vs. KC
There won’t be a player with more value upside than McCann in this lineup today. McCann is once again mashing left-handed pitching this season as he will enter play tonight sporting a whopping .400 ISO and a .951 OPS against left-handed pitching which is what he will see tonight against Royals’ starter Matt Strahm. McCann is also making hard contact 47.1% of the time against lefties this season and Strahm is yielding fly balls on 41.1% of the balls put into play against him to righties this season, making this a very appealing matchup at a great price tonight.
1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) – $4,000 vs. WAS
With Max Scherzer toeing the rubber tonight for the Nationals we will be getting Rizzo at much lower ownership than usual. Rizzo is actually one reason I decided not to use Scherzer tonight as he sports a 4.37 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 1.38 HR/9 and a large 48.1% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters. Rizzo has been on an absolute tear since taking over leadoff duties for the Cubs as he has a .293 ISO and a 1.090 OPS in the month of June. With Rizzo’s hot bat and Scherzer’s so-so numbers to lefties, we could have a nice GPP play with Rizzo at low ownership.
2B – Ian Kinsler (DET) – $4,500 vs. KC
Kinsler will lead off for the Tigers tonight against lefty Matt Strahm and will also lead off this stack against Strahm. While Kinsler has shown plenty of pop against lefties with a .245 ISO against them this season, his OPS is being severely dragged down by an incredibly low .200 BABIP against southpaws. With that figure due to inevitably increase, Kinsler could be a player to watch who will likely fall under the radar tonight on a loaded slate.
3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) – $4,600 vs. BOS
Here is a guy who is absolutely mashing lefties and will face one in a very hitting-friendly venue for right-handed bats tonight at Fenway Park. Sano has hit lefties to a .333 ISO and a 1.033 OPS on the season to go along with a whopping 50% hard hit rate against them. Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz has displayed some reverse splits so far this season, but with the way Sano has been swinging it against lefties it’s hard not to look at the short porch in left field at Fenway as a viable target tonight for Sano.
SS – Eduardo Escobar (MIN) – $3,500 vs. BOS
Another lefty-masher, Escobar is also in a nice spot tonight as part of a mini-stack with Sano. Escobar has hit lefties to a .230 ISO and a .977 OPS on the season while making hard contact 40% of the time against them. He has also destroyed lefties on the road this season as evidenced by his .368 ISO and 1.119 OPS against southpaws away from Target Field this season.
OF – J.D. Martinez (DET) – $4,500 vs. KC
There arguably hasn’t been a better hitter in the American League against left-handed pitching this season than J.D. Martinez. If you don’t believe me, perhaps his .556 ISO, 1.680 OPS, 50% hard contact rate and minuscule 9.1% strikeout rate will help clarify things. Another factor in Martinez’s favor along with the other Tigers’ righties in this stack is the 10 MPH wind blowing out to left field at Comerica Park in Detroit tonight. Facing a fly ball pitcher, this is an excellent matchup for the slugging outfielder.
OF – Justin Upton (DET) – $4,600 vs. KC
Interestingly, Upton is priced a tick higher than Martinez, but we will take them both regardless. Upton sports a .196 ISO and a .970 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching and has made hard contact on 43.9% of the balls he has put into play against them. He appears to have moved up into the three-hole for tonight’s game against the Royals so let’s roll with the left fielder to complete this stack.
OF – Eric Thames (MIL) – $4,200 vs. CIN
Finishing off this lineup will be slugging first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames. Thames will take on Reds’ right-hander Tim Adleman tonight who has a 6.17 FIP, 6.02 xFIP, 51.1% fly ball rate and a 1.99 HR/9 clip surrendered to left-handed bats this season. Enter Thames who has posted a .306 ISO and a .958 OPS against left-handed pitching this season to go along with a 42.9% hard contact rate against them. He will also take his cuts in one of the league’s most hitting-friendly venues for left-handed home run hitters. There isn’t much to hate about this matchup tonight.