Tonight we have a very limited slate on our hands. There are seven games on the slate, however a couple of games have some unpredictable weather issues involved. With that in mind we will avoid these two games for now and I advise that you check the weather forecasts closer to game time for updates on these weather concerns. Let’s get to it!
P – Gio Gonzalez (WAS) – $8,000 vs. LAD
With a limited slate on our hands our first pitcher of the night will be Nationals’ lefty Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez isn’t an optimal pitcher tonight but can certainly work in GPP lineups. He will face upwards of six or seven right-handed bats which his splits are worse against, however his 8.08 K/9 against righties this season tops his 7.31 figure against left-handed bats. He has a strikeout percentage over 20% to both sides of the plate this season and has an excellent career 1.69 ERA against the Dodgers across five starts.
P – Junior Guerra (MIL) – $7,600 vs. SF
Guerra will make just his fourth start of the season against the Giants at home tonight as he sports an excellent 1.84 ERA on the season after a breakout 2016 campaign that saw him post a 2.81 ERA across 20 starts. Guerra’s peripheral figures spell regression as he has just a .158 BABIP against on the season as well as an unsustainable 98.4% strand rate, however he fill face a Giants team that ranks 28th in runs scored this season, making this a good matchup for the right-hander tonight.
C – Salvador Perez (KC) – $2,900 vs. HOU
I believe we are getting a huge discount on a player with big upside tonight. Perez already has 11 homers on the season tonight he will face off against right-handed pitcher in Mike Fiers who has some of the biggest reverse splits in the league this season. Fiers will enter play sporting a massive 10.02 FIP and a 5.23 HR/9 clip against right-handed bats this season. Obviously those numbers will come down some, but his 5.33 xFIP still tells me that he has been horrific to righties this season, as does his 39.7% hard contact allowed to them. The Royals could be a nice, low-owned stack this evening.
1B – Eric Thames (MIL) – $4,700 vs. SF
Thames and the Brewers will welcome the Giants and right-hander Jeff Samardzija to town this evening. Samardzija is having a strong season against righties, however he sports a 4.42 FIP to left-handed hitters on the season. He also has a 2.06 HR/9 to lefties this season. Enter Thames who has cooled down from his white-hot April, but still owns an enormous .320 ISO and a 1.030 OPS against right-handed pitching on the season. Considering Miller Park in Milwaukee is one of, if not the league’s best home run ball parks for hitters to right field, I love the left-handed hitting Thames in this spot.
2B – Whit Merrifield (KC) – $4,300 vs. HOU
Merrifield is having a nice breakout season for the Royals as he enters play today with an .856 OPS on the season while hitting six home runs and also stealing six bases as well, giving him solid power/speed upside tonight. That is a good thing against the aforementioned Mike Fiers and his brutal numbers to right-handed hitters like Merrifield. Fiers has already allowed eight steals in just 52.2 innings this season, therefore cross-category production isn’t out of the question from Merrifield tonight.
3B – Travis Shaw (MIL) – $4,700 vs. SF
Shaw is in this lineup for many of the same reasons as Thames before him as the two form a solid mini-stack in this lineup tonight. Shaw enters play tonight with a .253 ISO and a .908 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Combine that with Samardzija’s struggles with lefties and the very hitting-friendly venue at Miller Park and we have a solid play on our hands here with Shaw.
**UPDATE: Shaw has been placed on Paternity leave. Replace with Anthony Rendon (WAS).
SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) – $5,500 vs. KC
With Ian Kennedy’s struggles this season some Astros’ exposure is very necessary so let’s begin that exposure here with Correa. Correa is a reverse-splits hitter, meaning he hits right-handed pitching better than he does left-handed pitching. That is a good thing tonight as Kennedy sports a 5.71 FIP, 2.11 HR/9 and a 47.5% fly ball clip to right-handed hitters this season. This is a fantastic matchup for the young shortstop tonight.
OF – Josh Reddick (HOU) – $4,400 vs. HOU
Kennedy has struggled against right-handed hitters this season, but his 5.18 FIP, 1.48 HR/9 and 47.1% fly ball rate to lefties is nothing to write home about either. Reddick could be a lower-owned option in a Houston stack tonight compared to the Springer’s and Altuve’s of the world, and he is also hitting righties to a .192 ISO this season, showing some solid power against opposite-handed pitching after a down year in 2016.
OF – Jorge Bonifacio (KC) – $3,600 vs. HOU
The Royals’ stack is complete here with outfielder Jorge Bonifacio. Bonifacio has a whopping .265 ISO and .964 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching and those numbers speak even louder due to the reverse splits of Mike Fiers. He, along with Perez and Merrifield should form a very solid low-owned, high-upside stack on a short slate this evening. Excellent for GPP games.
OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) – $4,300 vs. OAK
A standalone play in this lineup, Bautista and a healthy Toronto lineup will take on the A’s and lefty Sean Manaea tonight in Oakland. Although it’s a pitcher’s ballpark in Oakland, Manaea is giving up hard contact 37.5% of the time to righties this season and Bautista had a .209 ISO from last season against lefties. His numbers are way down this season to lefties, but a paltry .179 BABIP needs to take some of that blame. If anything, the lower numbers will drop his ownership which increases his GPP value tonight.