After a few days away for personal reasons I am back today to deliver some DraftKings picks on a slate that is a little uneasy due to weather. That said, we will do our best to avoid games with grim forecasts in order to ensure we get the most bang for our bucks this evening! Let’s go!
P – Chris Sale (BOS) – $13,500 vs. TEX
At the rate Sale is going at right now you almost know that the winning lineup in GPPs and cash games tonight will have Sale included in them. The guy is on a torrid stretch right now, having punched out at least 10 hitters in eight straight starts and now boats an enormous 13.02 K/9 on the season. He also enters play today with a sparkling 2.19 ERA, and even lower 1.62 FIP and takes on a Rangers team that has the fifth most strikeouts in the American League this season. Roll him out there with confidence today.
P – Charlie Morton (HOU) – $8,600 vs. DET
Morton has been one of the most surprising pitchers in the AL this season, not because of his mediocre 4.26 ERA, but because of his 10.48 K/9 figure after posting a 6.70 K/9 mark in his most recent full (ish) season in 2015. Morton has gained a full 4 MPH on his four-seam fastball since that season after battling injuries ever since, which is almost unheard of as it’s usually the opposite. He is now up to an average of 96.1 MPH on the four-seam fastball and that increase in velocity has him racking up more strikeouts than ever, something that could continue tonight against the slumping Tigers.
C – Christian Vazquez (BOS) – $3,000 vs. TEX
Texas will send lefty Martin Perez to the mound tonight who has very traditional splits and therefore has notable struggles against right-handed hitters. So, let’s cue the Red Sox right-handed hitting stack beginning here with Vazquez. Although Vazquez has yet to hit consistently at the big league level, he has shown some more power against left-handed pitching and has the ballpark factor in his favor tonight as Fenway yields plenty more home runs over the green monster in left field than it does to right field.
1B – Hanley Ramirez (BOS) – $4,600 vs. TEX
Next man up is Hanley Ramirez who boasts a .200 ISO on the season against left-handed pitching which trumps his .164 figure against righties. His splits were extremely drastic last season as he hit to a .331 ISO and a 1.097 OPS against left-handed pitching while compiling a .185 ISO and a .796 OPS against right-handed pitching. Considering we have traditional splits on both sides of this matchup and the ball park in our favor we are in good shape with this pick.
2B – Starlin Castro (NYY) – $3,700 vs. KC
While we could have had Pedroia in this spot we will pivot to the cheaper, more powerful Starlin Castro who could also be lower owned due a reverse-splits situation for both Castro and Royals’ righty Jason Hammel. Hammel is getting torched by right-handed hitting this season as evidenced by his 7.31 FIP and 2.45 HR/9 surrendered against righties. Castro has been hitting right-handed pitching better than he has lefties this season with a .197 ISO and a .903 OPS against righties compared to a .114 ISO and an .832 ISO against righties. This double reverse splits situation could be profitable tonight.
3B – Deven Marrero (BOS) – $2,700 vs. TEX
Marrero could be a sneaky GPP play this evening as part of this Red Sox stack at a very cheap price. His numbers don’t scream power by any means, but he has hits in back-to-back games to go along with two RBIs and a walk in that stretch. If the Red Sox can deliver against Perez tonight that means Marrero could hit with plenty of traffic on the bases and it may only take one hit with runners on base to reach value at a low ownership tonight.
SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) – $3,800 vs. KC
Although the left-handed hitting Gregorius doesn’t fit the same double reverse splits scenario that Castro does before him, he hits right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching so we will roll with him at a nice price at the shortstop position. Gregorius posted a .179 ISO against righties in 2016 compared to a .149 mark against lefties and could very well benefit from the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium tonight. He and Castro could form a nice little Yankees mini-stack this evening.
OF – Chris Young (BOS) – $3,600 vs. TEX
We will conclude the Red Sox stack here with lefty masher Chris Young. Young has a career .212 ISO and .843 OPS against left-handed pitching in his career and boasted a massive .260 ISO and a .999 OPS in 2016 against lefties. He will likely move up the lineup tonight and hit 5th or 6th in what should be a productive lineup tonight for the home team.
OF – Kevin Kiermaier (TB) – $3,100 vs. LAA
We will fill our last two spots tonight with a Rays mini-stack beginning here with outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. He isn’t the most powerful bat to roster, but he is hitting over 100 points higher against righties this season than he is against lefties and that is what he is getting tonight against Angels’ righty Ricky Nolasco. What we also have with Kiermaier is stolen base upside as he already has swiped seven bags this season after stealing 21 in 2016. He will likely hit near or at the top of the order tonight against Nolasco.
OF – Colby Rasmus (TB) – $3,200 vs. LAA
Another cheap Ray with high upside tonight is Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is much better against right-handed pitching in his career with a .207 ISO and a .774 OPS against them compared to a .156 ISO and a .661 OPS against southpaw pitching. He has a .208 ISO against righties in 2017 and will come at low ownership tonight, which is exactly what we want when we are rolling out this GPP lineup this evening.