DraftKings MLB Picks – September 21st

Last night was an extremely frustrating night to stay the least. While our Cardinals stack went off and Kurt Suzuki provided a one-off home run, our pitching doomed us. Robbie Ray went from utter dominance to utter futility as he lasted less than five innings while Aaron Wilkerson was brutal over his 2.1 innings of work. A lot of things have to go right to be a successful MLB DFS player, and nights like last night show that no matter how accurate one portion of your lineup can be there is always another area that can hurt you. Let’s put a frustrating Wednesday slate behind us and move on to tonight’s nine-game Thursday slate!

P – Tanner Roark (WAS) – $9,200 vs. ATL

Today’s slate features a grossly thin pitching board, one that boasts a mix of starts on pitch limits, starters coming off of injuries and a handful of ineffective and low-strikeout options. Therefore, we will begin here with Tanner Roark who at least is very consistent and has the upside for a high strikeout game here and there. Roark actually sports a strikeout rate over 30% to both sides of the plate over the last month, and although Atlanta isn’t a high strikeout team, Roark has historically dominated them to the tune of a 2.80 ERA across 12 starts and 18 appearances.

P – Tyler Anderson (SD) – $7,500 vs. COL

There are a handful of options to settle into the second starter spot tonight, so by no means is Anderson a lock, but he has a decent matchup tonight against the Padres. Yes, the same Padres team that got to both Zack Godley and Robbie Ray the last two nights. Anderson had a rough start to the season, but has been much better lately, especially since returning to the rotation as he hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts spanning ten innings and has struck out seven in that stretch as well. He is a decent option among several so-so options in this price range tonight.

C – Yadier Molina (STL) – $3,700 vs. CIN

The Cardinals are an offense on fire right now and they will face Homer Bailey who is enduring a brutal season, so let’s fire up another Cardinals stack tonight for the second time in as many days. Molina doesn’t have superior numbers against righties overall this season, but he has a solid .188 ISO and .332 wOBA against righties the last month and has simply mashed Bailey in his career by going 15 for 39 (.385) with three homers and three doubles for a rather elite 1.092 OPS and .464 wOBA off the veteran.

1B – Matt Carpenter (STL) – $4,200 vs. CIN

Carpenter didn’t waste any time getting the Cardinals on the board in last night’s contest with a leadoff home run off of Rookie Davis. He has a fantastic opportunity to keep it going tonight against Bailey as he enters play sporting a .229 ISO, .875 OPS and a .376 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching. Bailey sports a 5.93 FIP to lefties at home this season, so we can feel comfortable with this pick, especially considering Carpenter has also mashed Bailey with a .548 average, albeit with just three extra-base hits, across 31 at-bats.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) – $5,200 vs. DET

Another offense in a good spot tonight are the Twins as they face Tigers’ right-hander Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been just terrible again this season as he enters play tonight sporting a FIP south of 5.20 to both sides of the plate and a HR/9 clip over 1.65 to both sides of the plate. Enter Dozier who has clubbed 21 homers and swiped 14 bases against righties this season, a nice combo considering Zimmermann has yielded nine stolen bases this season.

3B – Matt Davidson (CWS) – $3,300 vs. HOU

We should get Davidson at low ownership tonight consider he takes on lefty-hander Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel has improved since returning from injury, but has a 5.34 SIERA (skill-interactive ERA) against righties over the last month. Davidson sports a powerful .202 ISO and a 35.1% hard hit rate against lefties this season and could very a very sneaky play as a value one off tonight.

SS – Trevor Story (COL) – $3,900 vs. SD

Story could be another nice one off play tonight as he takes on the Padres and left-hander Clayton Richard. Richard is better at home, but Story still owns a .395 ISO, 1.098 OPS and a .443 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He is also 3 for 9 with a homer and a triple in his career against Richard.

OF – Dexter Fowler (STL) – $4,900 vs. CIN

Fowler is one of, if not the hottest hitter in all of baseball right now. In fact, he leads all of baseball with a .672 wOBA over the last seven days and his .625 ISO over that stretch ranks third. He has homered in three straight games and is 8 for his last 16 with those three homers, a double, seven RBIs, five runs scored and two walks. He also loves hitting at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati with a career .882 OPS at this venue.

OF – Tommy Pham (STL) – $4,700 vs. CIN

Last man up in the Cardinals’ stack is Pham who is also swinging a hot bat at the moment. After doubling twice in last night’s win, Pham is 7 for his last 15 including those two doubles. He owns a .929 OPS and a .398 wOBA against righties this season and also brings some stolen base upside with him tonight as he has 21 steals on the season and Bailey has already yielded eight steals in 80 innings.

OF – Max Kepler (MIN) – $3,400 vs. DET

I believe we are getting Kepler at a very nice price tonight. Kepler has a very nice .216 ISO, .832 OPS and a .354 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching. He also has six steals, giving him some stolen base upside but he also brings a huge 1.013 OPS across 40 at-bats in his career at Comerica Park into play tonight. Very high upside for a very low price tonight.

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