Last night’s picks were very productive as the Cardinals and Twins both did some serious damage. Our pitchers both has solid outings, however neither were able to land in the win column due to next to zero run support. Tanner Roark and Tyler Anderson combined to go 12.2 innings, giving up six runs but struck out a combined 13 batters on the night. Not exceptional figures, but not bad at all considering the extremely thin pitching board last night. With a solid night of picks behind us, let’s end the week on a good note on tonight’s 15-game slate!
P – Rich Hill (LAD) – $9,400 vs. SF
The story is usually consistently the same with Hill. While he often doesn’t go deep into ball games, the resurgent lefty can certainly rack up the strikeouts in a hurry. Hill has pitched just ten innings over his last two starts combined, but he has only given up three earned runs in that stretch while striking out 12. He sports a strikeout rate of 32% or higher to both lefties and righties over the last month as San Francisco’s projected lineup has struck out in almost 22% of their at-bats against lefties during that same stretch. With Vegas implying only three runs for San Fran in this one Hill is a very attractive option.
P – Jon Gray (COL) – $8,900 vs. SD
Despite some time missed with injuries this season Gray has actually been remarkably consistent and is pitching extremely well these days. Gray has allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his 18 starts this season. In four September starts, Gray has a strikeout clip over 28% to go along with an impressive 2.94 FIP. He takes on a Padres team that ranks 23rd in team wOBA against righties over the last seven days and has a 25.4% strikeout rate in that time as well, the eighth highest figure in baseball. Gray also gets a nice park shift tonight, moving from the extreme hitting conditions in Colorado the pitching-friendly confines of Petco Park in San Diego.
C – Chris Iannetta (ARI) – $3,600 vs. MIA
Iannetta seems to be locked into the two hole against lefties for the D-Backs these days, a prime spot for a low cost catcher with power. Against lefties this season, Iannetta sports an impressive .203 ISO, .902 OPS and a .388 wOBA. Adam Conley of the Marlins sports a 5.51 FIP on the road against righties this season, a figure the D-Backs righties should be able to take advantage of, so let’s kick off the stack with Iannetta tonight.
1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – $5,500 vs. MIA
Goldy is an easy call in this stack despite the elevated price. He has mashed lefties to the tune of a .262 ISO, .975 OPS and a .392 wOBA on the season. Over the last month against lefties he has posted a .393 ISO and a .385 wOBA. He also brings a touch of stolen base upside with him into play tonight as he has swiped seven bases off of lefties this season, giving him plenty of cross-category upside in this matchup.
2B – Scooter Gennett (CIN) – $3,700 vs. BOS
Gennett and the Reds could fly under the radar tonight as they take on Rick Porcello. Porcello has not been good to lefties lately, having yielded a .259 ISO and a .379 wOBA to them over the last month. He also has a poor 4.99 SIERA against them in that span as well. Enter Gennett who is enjoying a career year and owns a .263 ISO, .934 OPS and a .389 wOBA against righties this season and a .253 ISO and a .384 wOBA against them over the last month. Excellent production at a low price.
3B – Eduardo Escobar (MIN) – $4,300 vs. DET
The Twins are hot, the Tigers pitching staff is brutal and thus we have some much needed exposure here with the Twins’ infielder. Escobar has actually seen a notable dip in his numbers against lefties from earlier in the season, but he will likely hit in the middle of the order tonight and is coming off of a two-hit, three-run performance in last night’s route. The Tigers are giving up more runs than anyone in baseball lately so some exposure to that here is necessary.
SS – Adam Rosales (ARI) – $2,600 vs. MIA
Rosales enters this lineup as a value play, but should hit at the end of this D-Backs stack and thus could provide big value in this spot. He actually has solid numbers against lefties this season, numbers that include a decent .165 ISO and a solid 34.7% hard contact rate against them. He also sports a huge .290 ISO against lefties over the last month, fantastic production from a sub-3K player tonight.
OF – J.D. Martinez (ARI) – $5,600 vs. MIA
Of course no Arizona stack against a lefty is complete without one of, if not the best bat in baseball against left-handed pitching. Martinez enters play tonight sporting a massive .500 ISO, 1.331 OPS and a .522 wOBA against lefties this season, and no there are not any typos there. This is over a 103 plate appearance sample size as well. He also owns a .469 ISO and a .447 wOBA against them the last month, so his production has clearly been consistently super-elite against lefties all season.
OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) – $3,800 vs. BOS
Schebler and Gennett should form a nice lower owned mini-stack tonight. The powerful Schebler has touched up righties to a .270 ISO, .812 OPS and a .338 wOBA on the season. Over the last month, his production has increased to an elite .324 ISO and a .361 wOBA against righties while hitting the ball in the air 54% of the time, a number that is beneficial at the home run-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
OF – Victor Robles (WAS) – $2,400 vs. NYM
The Nationals looks as if they are going to roll out a lineup filled with rookies and low-priced options, and I will take advantage here with the rookie Robles. Robles is actually a reverse-splits hitter, having clobbered righties to a .957 OPS at the Triple-A level this season. He will face Mets’ righty Robert Gsellman tonight who has yielded a .371 wOBA to righties at home this season, a much higher number than the .305 mark he has yielded to lefties, so let’s take advantage of this double-reverse-splits matchup at just over the minimum price tonight.