gravatar

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – April 4th

Well, last night was a lot of fun. I’m a Brewers fan, so that ending to Milwaukee’s win over the rival Cardinals was certainly exciting (and historic).

Beyond that, my MLB DFS picks also worked out swimmingly.

Had I chosen the right Brewers bats, I may have won all of the money. If you faded Eric Thames and Travis Shaw and pivoted to guys like Joey Gallo and Josh Donaldson while also stacking most of my other picks, you could have easily done so as well.

Overall, it was a great night for my daily fantasy baseball FanDuel picks.

Starting at pitcher, Zack Godley (37) was a very nice play based on his price. He kept the Dodgers in line and even got the win. Had he made a few more batters miss, he could have been the best overall arm of the night.

It’s tough to complain with a score of 37, while I didn’t fail much in the hitting department, either. Eric Thames (3) was my only guy below 9.7 on the night, while Travis Shaw was responsible for my lone score below 15.4 when it came to my bats.

Last night was very explosive and I nailed almost all of my hitting picks. Freddie Freeman led the way (44.6!), while Bryce Harper (25.2) was also worth paying up for. Trea Turner (18) wasn’t as good as Carlos Correa (31!), but he was a hit and Ozzie Albies (25) was another fine play.

I crushed it in the value department, as Curtis Granderson (24.9!) was the bare minimum and worked out beautifully. Hunter Renfroe (15.4) was also an elite value play. He didn’t dong like I hoped he would, but he still churned out solid production to wrap things up.

It was a very good night and if things broke slightly differently, I (and perhaps you) could have won big. This team still topped 200 fantasy points and did finish in the green in my single entry GPP, though, so you can’t as for much more than that.

Things quiet down on Wednesday night’s main slate, as you’ll have just five games to work with. The early slate is pretty attractive and is hogging all of the elite pitching, but I actually love this main slate. Let’s take a closer look at some of the best MLB DFS picks as I build my team out for FanDuel GPPs:

SP: Jon Gray – Colorado Rockies ($8k)

I have mild interest in Carlos Martinez after seeing the Brewers get K’d 9 times by a young arm last night, but he’s tough to trust on the road. I’d rather pay $100 more for Gray, who is somehow better at Coors Field but still has a really good matchup in front of him.

This really is a bad slate for pitching, but I like Gray in this spot. Petco Park is traditionally a solid spot for hurlers, while the Padres are down Wil Myers and overall are not a very scary offense. San Diego did pop off for 8 runs last night, but they historically don’t hit righties well and I don’t fear them in this spot.

More specifically, Gray is an easy guy to get behind on this short slate. Last year alone Gray worked the Padres pretty easily, posting a 2-0 record with a blistering 2.65 ERA and 22 Ks across 17 innings. Expect more of the same to close this slate out tonight.

Add in the fact that Gray’s Rockies are a solid -121 favorite at Sportsbetting.ag tonight.

C/1B: Matt Olson – Oakland Athletics ($3.4k)

Olson is a total masher (.439 wOBA, .434 ISO) against right-handed pitching and tonight you can get him at home against a beatable arm in Doug Fister. Fister can actually be annoyingly decent at times, which is one reason why I’ll refrain from a total A’s stack.

I still love Olson, who has elite splits and has yet to really go nuts this year. He hasn’t donged since Opening Day, so there is an argument he’s a little due tonight. There isn’t a better setting for him to reward you for rostering him, especially considering the only time Olson faced Fister he donged him.

2B: Yoan Moncada – Chicago White Sox ($3.3k)

Moncada is not a great play against left-handed pitching, but tonight he’ll face a righty in Aaron Sanchez. I’m not about to stack the Sox on this slate, but I’ll certainly look at Moncada and his strong splits (.345 wOBA, .209 ISO) against righties.

Moncada is no lock, but 2B is pretty bad tonight. I like the splits and Sanchez wasn’t amazing in his 2018 debut. He gives up contact and gave up six dongs in just eight starts in 2017 (15 in 30 in 2016). I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Moncada go yard in this one, while there is plenty of opportunity for multiple base hits if he can keep the ball off the ground.

3B: Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies ($4.5k)

Arenado isn’t in the more explosive Coors Field tonight, but he’s facing a southpaw and he remains one of the more dynamic hitters in baseball. His splits versus lefties (.536 wOBA, .432 ISO) are about as nasty as it gets and his BvsP (10 for 16, 1 HR) against Clayton Richard is impossible to ignore.

I don’t ever need much reason to play Arenado in general, much less against southpaws. Hopefully his steep price and the fact that he’s facing a ground ball pitcher in a notorious pitcher’s park helps keep his ownership somewhat low.

SS: Trevor Story – Colorado Rockies ($2.6k)

I don’t feel the need to force Rockies into my lineup tonight, but a small stack certainly wouldn’t be a terrible idea. Petco Park is not the ideal setting to target bats and Clayton Richard is a ground ball arm, but if I can get some dong artists at low ownership in tourneys, why not give it a shot?

Story is almost as attractive as Arenado, as he also brings insane splits against southpaws (.432 wOBA, .364 ISO) to the table. He’s not nearly the reliable hitter, but SS isn’t amazing on this slate. I’ll chase the splits and upside and get me a third hammer to close the night.

OF: Dexter Fowler – St. Louis Cardinals ($2.2k)

The St. Louis Cardinals have put up a healthy 12 runs in two games at Miller Park so far and something tells me they’ll be adding to that number again tonight. Fowler got the 2018 MLB season off to a really bad start, but has snapped out of his funk with three hits (including a homer) in his last 10 trips to the plate.

Fowler’s consistency could still be a mild concern, but I’m not that worried given the park, his splits against righties (.367 wOBA, .242 ISO) and this super cheap price tag. It doesn’t hurt that he’s facing a very beatable arm in Jhoulys Chacin, who did not look good in his season opener.

OF: Khris Davis – Oakland Athletics ($3.5k)

I’m not into a complete Oakland stack, but I’m not against a two or three-man squad. Doug Fister can eat up innings, but he’s far from an elite pitcher and he absolutely can get wrecked. While I don’t necessarily think he will, I’m a fan of Davis for a number of reasons tonight.

The biggest reason to roll with Davis are his nasty splits against righties (.367 wOBA, .293 ISO), while he’s already had some success (5 for 15) in this matchup. This is still a very volatile bat, but Davis hasn’t donged since Opening Day and could be due. The splits and matchup suggest he’s more than worth the risk, so I’m diving in head first.

OF: Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies ($4.9k)

I’ll complete a three-man Rockies stack with Blackmon, who is always a better try against righties, but carries equally disgusting splits (.403 wOBA, .234 ISO) against southpaws. I love Blackmon for the same reasons as Story and Arenado, while he’s also had some solid history against Richard.

Blackmon is the most expensive (and possibly best) OF option on this slate and I’m not letting Petco Park scare me off of him.

Util: Brandon Belt – San Francisco Giants ($2.5k)

There is some solid logic in fading Blackmon to get more balanced, but you should be chasing upside in a tournament setting. Belt helps me do that and I actually think he’s a really good play in his own way, too.

Belt has awesome splits against right-handed pitching (.366 wOBA, .240 ISO) and faces a fairly volatile ace in Felix Hernandez. Once considered an elite arm, Hernandez has dropped off considerably over the years. He’s still a solid pitcher, but not one you can’t target with a one-off option that makes sense.

The splits and a cheap price tag help put Belt on the map, while I like the fact that Hernandez’s K% drops by six when facing lefty bats. I’m not expecting a dong here, but Belt hasn’t had a ton of good matchups come at him yet this year.

This one looks good on paper and I think he can do enough to pay off. If you disagree you can drop a little further down and use Jed Lowrie or just fade Blackmon and go balanced for the final two roster spots.

I’m rolling out four Rockies tonight and refuse to look back. Jon Gray is my favorite arm on this slate and I’m just taking that stand and submitting this lone lineup into a single entry tournament. If Gray fails, he fails. I’m also into Colorado, both because their top two bats are very expensive and the park/matchup might scare some people away.

I’m hoping that’s the case, but even if Rockies end up being popular I think I’m going to want exposure to them. Overall, this is a really balanced roster with a lot of upside. The risky plays (Story, Dex, Belt) all have amazing splits and offer elite value. Love or hate my MLB DFS picks for tonight? Tell me all about it in the comments below!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.