Gerrit Cole was a total fiend (58 fantasy points), while the rest of my team was pretty solid. Joey Votto (9.5), Ozzie Albies (12), Dansby Swanson (6), Jesse Winker (15) and Matt Olson (15.7) weren’t amazing, but they all got on the board and did a fine enough job.
Adrian Beltre was a late scratch you had to pivot off of, while Preston Tucker (0) was my only true gaffe on the night. Overall, this lineup didn’t produce a winner, but it really wasn’t far off. If you pivoted from Beltre to someone like Luis Valbuena (21), then you may have made out okay.
I took Sunday off, but it’s back to the grind as I try to piece together a GPP winner at FanDuel for Monday night. Let’s get to it:
SP: Jon Gray – Colorado Rockies ($7.7k)
Obviously Mad Max and Thor are the top plays on the board, but I want some bats tonight and this is a huge 10-game slate. I think you can get away with getting some savings at pitcher and there is a lot working in Gray’s favor.
Not only does he get a punchless Padres lineup he burned in his last start (52 fantasy points), but he actually thrives at home. Coors Field is very dangerous, but Gray was stout here in 2017, going 5-1 with a respectable 3.13 ERA and holding opposing bats to a collective .244 batting average. He also allowed just four home runs across eight starts.
I like all of that, plus the value here is pretty sweet. Gray does come with big risk, but San Diego is still down their best power bat (Wil Myers) and collectively boast a weak .160 ISO versus right-handed hurlers. I’m not saying Gray is safe here or you should fade all Padres bats (this is still Coors we’re talking about), but I like Gray here.
The fact that there are a ton of elite arms and this is Coors will lower Gray’s ownership. I’d create a few other GPP teams centered around Thor or Mad Max, but I love Gray for my main squad tonight.
C/1B: Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks ($4.3k)
I feel like there are going to be a lot of super chalky bats that end up disappointing tonight. Bryce Harper could be one of them, while Freddie Freeman could easily disappoint against Mad Max. I will go contrarian here with Goldy, who has been horrendous out of the gates, is still pricey and will be going to work in a pitcher’s park.
I still love him, though. He has awesome splits (.416 wOBA, .288 ISO) against southpaws and he’s facing one in Derek Holland that is typically vulnerable to righty power. As in, Holland gives up a 40% hard contact rate and a 43% fly ball rate to that side of the plate.
I know AT&T Park isn’t the place to chase dongs, but I’m getting myself an elite (and low-owned) hammer to close up shop tonight.
2B: Ryan Schimpf – Los Angeles Angels ($2k)
This is a major dice roll, but the Halos are giving Schimpf a shot to prove he’s morphed into a more efficient hitter. He has always been a long ball fiend, though, while he sports nasty power (.256 ISO) against righties.
Tonight he’s in a hitter’s park against a beatable arm in Doug Fister. Fister can be annoying, but he’s in a tough spot and struggles more with power against lefty bats. Mike Trout and Justin Upton will be the popular Angels in this spot, but I’d rather fade them and pay the minimum for Schimpf. Cue the double-dong.
3B: Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies ($5.4k)
If you’re going to spend big on a chalky bat, Arenado is the guy. I do not love the pricey plays at 3B tonight beyond him and so far I’m not seeing a 3B value play I have to roster. It’s not exactly a great daily fantasy baseball strategy to constantly pay down with a volatile bat like Luis Valbuena after all.
There is a lot to love about Arenado tonight. I don’t really think the steep price tag will keep ownership that low, but obviously that’d be fantastic. He is a very logical play from every angle, as he’ll be hitting in Coors Field and facing a lefty.
Clayton Richard has gotten ripped up (11 for 17, 1 HR) by Nolan in the past, while Arenado shreds southpaws (.536 wOBA, .432 IO) regardless. I don’t need to sell this play much more than that.
SS: Scott Kingery – Philadelphia Phillies ($3k)
Here is another fine play where the ownership will be next to nothing. Perhaps some people will use Kingery to save cash, but there are a ton of elite SS options to consider on this slate. I love Kingery at home in a hitter’s park, plus he offers a nice power/speed guy against a beatable arm in Cody Reed.
Reed sees his K rate drop by 13% against right-handed batters, while he also gives up a dangerous 41% hard hit rate. In this park, I’m going to want a few righties going up against Reed and I love that I can get one on the cheap. Hit a dong and swipe some bags, Kingery!
OF: Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies ($4.9k)
Bryce Harper and Mike Trout should be more popular than Hoskins, who seems to put up solid numbers every single game. I am always high on Rhys, who has the power to go yard in any matchup and has proven to be a very efficient player.
He’s super pricey in this spot, but much like teammate Kingery, he has an awesome matchup against a beatable southpaw. Hoskins sports nasty splits (.400 wOBA, .429 ISO) in this spot and is at home in a great park for hitting. Hoskins has somehow been crushing despite donging once on the year. I think he rectifies that for you tonight.
OF: Aaron Altherr – Philadelphia Phillies ($2.7k)
Altherr has been horrendous to start the year, but his splits versus lefties (.350 wOBA, .266 ISO) could get me on him tonight. He brings solid power to the table and could be a third problem for Reed to work around.
I love the value here and given his immense struggles to start the year, I doubt he’s going to be high-owned in tourneys. If you hate his volatile nature you can play it a bit safer via Kole Calhoun or Brian Goodwin, but I love the splits and upside here.
OF: Hunter Renfroe – San Diego Padres ($2.2k)
I’m not sold on sticking with Renfroe, who is clearly going up against my arm and is a way better play versus southpaws. Those are two good reasons to play him as a cheap, contrarian bat, plus he’s really a discounted shot at exposure to Coors.
I’m not going into tonight assuming Gray shuts the Padres out and if someone is going to dong him, Renfroe’s power (still has a .180 ISO versus righties) makes him a solid try. If better value opens up (or Renfroe doesn’t start), I’ll pivot elsewhere. For now, he’s a fun one-off flier for tourneys.
Util: Scooter Gennett – Cincinnati Reds ($2.8k)
I’m capping this GPP FanDuel lineup with another bat from this Reds/Phillies game. I love this as a game to target, as it boasts the second highest Total (9) of the night, per Bovada. This game could be really explosive, yet I bet a lot of these hitters go low owned due to people wanting elite pitching and/or exposure to Coors Field.
I’m hoping that’s the case, but I don’t mind capping things off with Gennett either way. He’s in a great park for hitting and gets Lively, who struggles versus lefty power.
Gennett has yet to dong on the year and I love this spot for him. He boasts fun splits (.389 wOBA, .262 ISO) going into this spot, too, so I’ll roll the dice that he dongs tonight. Cue the quad-dong? Probably not, but one can hope.
Overall, I love chasing value on this slate. I want the elite arms like everyone else, but I like Gray at home against the Padres. That opens things up for some reall fun, contrarian plays. It also still allows me to land Arenado and Hoskins, while I can also freely stack one of the (hopefully) most explosive games of the night.
I’m in trouble if this Reds/Phillies game doesn’t work out, but sometimes you need to take sharp stances in MLB DFS. Whether you’re with me there or not, hopefully these MLB DFS picks help you win some cash tonight. Good luck in your FanDuel daily fantasy baseball contests!