We have a huge 15-game MLB main slate on tap tonight with plenty of opportunities throughout.
Let’s get right into tonight’s FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and see if we can enter the weekend with some money in our pockets!
P – Charlie Morton (TB) – $11,300 vs. DET
Two of the AL’s top Cy Young candidates are on this slate as Justin Verlander takes on the Oakland A’s in Oakland while fellow right-hander Charlie Morton takes on the Tigers tonight in Tampa Bay. Of the two, Morton has the better matchup by far and given the price tag is $900 cheaper, it wasn’t a difficult decision to roll with the big Tampa hurler in this one tonight. Morton enters this one sporting a 2.90 ERA, a figure that is very much supported by his 2.79 FIP and 3.25 xFIP as well. He’s also punching out a whopping 11.11 batters per nine innings this season and that number could very well get a boost tonight against a Tigers team that ranks 28th with a 26.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching on the season while their .285 wOBA off of them ranks 29th. Morton has faced the Tigers once this season – in Detroit – where he hurled seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts. The fact this one is taking place in Tampa bodes well for the upside as well where Morton owns a 2.75 ERA, but also a 2.42 FIP, 2.83 xFIP and a massive 12.45 K/9 clip to go along with a 5.94 K/BB ratio. Needless to say, the ceiling is extremely high, as is the floor, in this matchup tonight.
C/1B – Rowdy Tellez (TOR) – $2,200 vs. SEA
The Blue Jays and Mariners open up a series from the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre in Toronto tonight and I like me some Blue Jays bats in this one. The Mariners will send opener Matt Wisler to the mound, a right-hander, but Wisler is only expected to throw one innings or two innings max. in this one tonight. He will then be followed by left-hander Wade Leblanc who owns a ghastly 7.64 ERA on the road this season as well as a 5.68 FIP and huge 2.73 HR/9 rate. After Leblanc, a Mariners bullpen that ranks 23rd with a 4.88 ERA on the season will then take over. Needless to say, there’s opportunity for the Blue Jays to do some damage here. In the season’s second half, the Blue Jays rank sixth in baseball with a .218 ISO, so they’ve pretty much hit for as much power as any team in the league over the last month. Enter Tellez who swings from the left side, but has some reverse splits as he’s posted superior numbers versus left-handed pitching. He owns a .221 ISO and .782 OPS against lefties on the season, but the numbers explode at home versus lefties where he owns a .333 ISO, .906 OPS, .369 wOBA and a 131 wRC+ against them. That’s good news for when he faces Leblanc, which he certainly will a couple of times, giving him a ton of value upside in this one tonight.
2B – Marco Hernandez (BOS) – $2,100 vs. BAL
After filling in my main stacks in this lineup, I had just $2,200 to use on a second baseman, and while there are actually a few reasonable options at that price and under, my pick of the litter is Hernandez who lines up against right-hander Aaron Brooks of the Orioles tonight in Boston. Brooks has struggled this season as he owns a 6.35 ERA, 6.13 FIP and a 5.28 xFIP on the season to go along with a big 2.36 HR/9 mark as well. The ERA goes to 7.31 on the road and the HR/9 creeps up to 2.53 HR/9, so we certainly have a targetable pitcher, and Boston’s 7.7 run projection in this one proves that. Hernandez doesn’t bring a wealth of home run power to the table, but he’s handled himself quite well against righties with a .333 average, .188 ISO, .881 OPS, .370 wOBA and a 127 wRC+ against righties in a small 48 at-bat sample size on the season. Hernandez hit .319 with an .852 OPS against righties at Triple-A this season as well. Some extra-base power would be a bonus in this case, but I feel Hernandez can at least get on base a couple of times and perhaps score a couple of runs given the massive run projection against the worst overall pitching staff in baseball this season.
3B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) – $3,400 vs. SEA
Next man up in our Blue Jays stack is Guerrero who will actually be leading off this stack out of the projected three-hole tonight. Guerrero has been red-hot at the plate over the last three walks after putting on that epic clinic at the Home Run Derby in Cleveland during the All-Star break. Since returning from the break, Guerrero has produced a .222 ISO, .913 OPS, .382 wOBA and a 140 wRC+. Furthermore, in the month of August to this point, Guerrero has posted a .275 ISO, .990 OPS, .407 wOBA and a 157 wRC+. Needless to say, he’s swinging a hot bat and his game logs are laced with multi-hit games on a regular basis. Guerrero will surely get to face Wisler in the first inning of this one tonight, and that’s a good thing as his .208 ISO, .878 OPS, .369 wOBA and 131 wRC+ on the season versus righties greatly outweigh his figures against southpaws. He’ll certainly face Leblanc at least once as well, but he will see both righties and lefties in this one tonight and given how hot his bat has been in general lately I’m just not overly concerned with his overall struggles versus lefties this season. The 20-year-old’s future is sky-high, but I also believe that’s the case for the here and now in this matchup tonight.
SS – Amed Rosario (NYM) – $2,500 vs. KC
The Mets continue their second half roll into Kansas City this weekend as they take on left-hander Mike Montgomery in the series opener tonight. Montgomery has been good throughout his MLB career, but he’s struggled to find it this season as he owns a 5.19 ERA. 5.09 FIP and a 1.79 HR/9 clip as well. He’s coming off a huge outing in which he hurled seven shutout innings with a whopping 12 strikeouts against a brutal Tigers offense, but he still owns a 4.63 ERA as a starter in five starts this season, all of which have come with the Royals after being acquired from the Chicago Cubs. As a result of Montgomery’s work and an unreliable Royals bullpen, the Mets are projected to score a very healthy 5.5 runs in this one tonight, so I’ll unleash a three-man Mets stack as a result, beginning here with Rosario. There is a real nice combination of power and speed here with 12 homers and 14 steals on the season, but the numbers against southpaws are huge. Against lefties this season, Rosario has posted a .250 ISO, .905 OPS, .379 wOBA and 136 wRC+. Furthermore, he’s punished left-handers on the road to the tune of a .297 ISO, 1.062 OPS, .436 wOBA and a 176 wRC+. Rosario has also put together a .187 ISO, .948 OPS, .395 wOBA and 150 wRC+ since returning from the All-Star break on July 12th. The stolen base upside isn’t so high with just two of his 14 steals coming against lefties, but everything points towards a ton of value upside here at this price, especially considering his positioning in the lineup out of the projected leadoff spot tonight.
OF – Randal Grichuk (TOR) – $3,300 vs. SEA
Next man up in our four-man Blue Jays stack is Grichuk who we shouldn’t be overly concerned with the splits with as he hits both left and right-handers well and has throughout his career. The bat has been more productive against left-handed pitching, which is probably a good thing considering he’s projected to his sixth in the lineup and will therefore likely face the lefty Leblanc at least twice in this one. He owns a .194 ISO, .781 OPS, .330 wOBA and 105 wRC+ against lefties this season. However, he’ll also likely face at least one righty tonight, and that’s okay too as the power is increased versus righties with a .213 ISO against them, but also a decent .726 OPS, .303 wOBA and 86 wRC+. The thing I like about Grichuk the most is that he’s on fire at the plate like his teammate Guerrero. Grichuk owns a massive .412 ISO, 1.115 OPS, .448 wOBA and 185 wRC+ in the month of August to this point. He’s homered in two of his last three games and has mixed in a double, five runs scored and five RBI in that time as well. Finally, it’s nice to see that he’s much more production at home where he owns a .256 ISO, .803 OPS, .331 wOBA and a 106 wRC+ on the season. Lots to like in this matchup as well.
OF – Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) – $3,000 vs. SEA
Completing our four-man powerful Blue Jays stack is Hernandez who should get at least a couple of reps with Leblanc tonight and that is very good news considering the damage he’s done versus southpaws on the season. Hernandez enters this one tonight sporting a .231 ISO, .781 OPS, .324 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ against them on the season. While it’s nice to see him hitting lefties well as he’ll see Leblanc tonight, it’s also nice to see that he’s been swinging the bat much better against righties, unlike earlier in the year. He’s hit righties to the point where he now owns a .228 ISO against them while he’s also destroyed righties at home to the tune of a huge .297 ISO to go along with an .809 OPS, .331 wOBA and 106 wRC+. His low batting average takes away from the OBP which in turn drags down the wOBA and wRC+ figures, but to be honest I am completely here for the raw power and his ISO numbers give us plenty of reason to believe he sports power to spare, especially against a pitching staff that allowed a ton of home runs on the season. With 19 long balls on the season and even four steals to boot, I am liking the chances of some extra-base power from the 26-year-old in this one tonight.
OF – J.D. Davis (NYM) – $3,100 vs. KC
We will be completing this lineup with a pair of Mets to complete a three-man Mets stack, beginning here with Davis who is in the midst of a breakout season with the Mets thanks to getting near full-time reps compared to his previous time spent with a loaded Astros lineup. While his bat has improved all-around, Davis is swinging a deadly bat against left-handed pitching which bodes well for this matchup tonight against Montgomery and the Royals. His splits are actually fairly even on the season, but his .214 ISO, .901 OPS, .376 wOBA and 137 wRC+ do have a slight edge on his .201 ISO, .878 OPS, .368 wOBA and 132 wRC+ against righties. Now, the one thing I don’t like with Davis is that he has struggled on the road this season where he’s hit just five of his 14 home runs, but he does own a massive .340 ISO, 1.110 OPS, .442 wOBA and a 181 wRC+ for the month of August to this point and had four hits, a steal, and two RBI in his last road series and homered and doubled in his previous road series. I’m willing to put the home/road splits aside for a hitter that’s perhaps the most improved in baseball this season and one that is matchup proof thanks to his big-time numbers versus both lefties and righties this season.
UTIL – Pete Alonso (NYM) – $4,000 vs. KC
Completing our three-man Mets stack is Alonso who is making a mockery of the NL Rookie of the Year race this season. The hulking first baseman and 2019 Home Run Derby champ enters this one just one home run shy of the 40 home run mark which would be an all-time record for a rookie, knocking the 39 that Cody Bellinger launched in 2017. The power numbers are just massive all-around and there’s simply no holes here. Against left-handed pitching, he owns a massive .393 wOBA, .992 OPS, .397 wOBA and 152 wRC+. That’s the good news, of course, as he faces a left-handed starting pitcher. While the most is more productive at home, Alonso still pwms a .300 ISO, .831 OPS, .343 wOBA and 116 wRC+ on the season against left-handers on the road, so the home/road splits are nothing to worry about here. His production dipped, by his lofty standards, in the month of July but Alonso is once again on fire in August with a .340 ISO, 1.074 OPS, .436 wOBA and 177 wRC+ to this point in the month. After homering in four straight games from August 5th through 9th, Alonso went deep in yesterday’s outburst in Atlanta in which he recorded five hits and six RBI. The 24-year-old has indeed set the baseball world on fire this season and he makes for a wonderful play to cap this 1-3 Mets stack against a struggling starter and shaky bullpen tonight.