If you rolled with last night’s MLB DFS picks you probably cashed at the very least. The good times started with German Marquez, who racked up 13 strikeouts and was easily the best play of the night. I also finally got a dong out of Giancarlo Stanton and a few of my others bats chipped in some solid production.
Tyler White joined Stanton in the dong club, while Nicholas Castellanos (12 fantasy points), Shohei Ohtani (12), Trevor Story (9) and Ian Kinsler (9) were all productive as well. Eduardo Nunez and Mark Canha were my lone gaffes.
Overall, it was a winning team and depending what type of GPP you were in, perhaps it was rather profitable. It would have been even better if you correctly faded Nunez/Canha and inserted more rewarding plays.
Last night was fun, but we’re back to the grind with a fully loaded 15-game MLB DFS slate tonight. Let’s go over my favorite daily fantasy baseball picks to try to piece together a GPP-winner at FanDuel:
SP: Nathan Eovaldi – Boston Red Sox ($7.4k)
I’ve been doing a solid job with my pitching calls lately and hopefully it continues with Eovaldi, who is in a tough park against a powerful White Sox offense. He also is in bad form, so I’m hoping everything rolls up into a huge slate and keeps his ownership low.
There are some great arms to spend big money on, but I don’t really want to do that tonight. While there’s a few things working against Eovaldi, his team is favored to win and he could benefit from Chicago having a tough time all year against right-handed pitching.
Normally I really only consider White Sox bats against a lefty, while they whiff at almost 27% in these types of spots. Eovaldi is still risky in theory, but if there’s a get right spot for him, this is it.
Luis Severino ($10.6k) against the Tigers is probably the top arm for me if you have an extra $3.2k, but I’d rather take a value arm and load up on bats. Need a dumpster dive arm that nobody will be on? Consider Jordan Zimmerman in GPPs.
He’s in a brutal park and he’s facing the Yanks, but they’re missing three of their best bats and haven’t been very reliable lately. He also has an uncanny ability to show up and stifle really potent offenses. I personally won’t be going there, but I won’t be shocked if he just survives his way to 40 fantasy points tonight.
C/1B: Carlos Santana – Philadelphia Phillies ($3.2k)
I love Matt Carpenter ($4.6k) tonight against Homer Bailey and a full Cardinals stack is in play. I don’t think that will exactly be chalky on a full slate, but it’s not an unpopular play. I think a full Phillies stack is very interesting tonight. Not only will it not be chalky, but it actually feels like a good stack.
It starts with Santana, who owns a strong .220 ISO against southpaws. He and his Phillies brethren will be at home in a very hitter-friendly park and they’ll face a lefty in Jose Quintana who has had a tough time against righties (.344 wOBA, .199 ISO, 37% fly ball rate, 35% hard hit rate, 11% walk rate) in 2018.
This is a park downgrade against a very powerful offense, so while Quintana is a big name, I think his contact issues could come back to haunt him tonight. It’s a worthwhile GPP stack that I think can blow up on this loaded slate, but Phillies righties can also be looked to as one-off sticks as well.
2B: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros ($4.3k)
Eovaldi opens things up for me tonight and I also think a Phillies stack is good (and cheap) enough to help me piece together a potential gem. That’s because both daily fantasy baseball strategies are going to allow me to load up in a few spots.
I don’t particularly love the matchups for the likes of the Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees tonight, so I’ll just grab the Astros. They can be spare at home and they’re not cheap, but hopefully that (and a full 15-game slate) just lowers their ownership.
Houston is in the midst of a tense division race, though, so they need to be more dialed in going forward. I see them showing up tonight, as they face the very beatable Jaime Barria. Altuve is my favorite play of the bunch, as he brings sweet splits (.391 wOBA) to the table. Barria also gives up way too much contact (.396 wOBA, .245 ISO, 44% fly ball rate, 37% hard hit rate) to the right side of the plate.
Barria is on the road and his already weak K rate dips by 5% when facing righties. Altuve is a lock for me, but if you want a pivot at a surprisingly weak 2B position, I’d go with Jed Lowrie ($3.9k). He’s not cheap, though, so I’ll just pay the extra $400 for what I deem a vastly superior play.
3B: Maikel Franco – Philadelphia Phillies ($3.1k)
I’ll keep the Philly stack rolling with Franco, who has hit lefties well throughout his career and has a pretty low whiff rate (11%) in these situations this year. I also saw in a RotoGrinders post that he crushes curveballs (.457 wOBA) and Quintana relies on that pitch quite a bit. The park, power and curveball splits make Franco very appealing.
A nice pivot is Miguel Sano. He mashes righties and gets a big park upgrade against the beatable Drew Hutchinson.
SS: Carlos Correa – Houston Astros ($3.6k)
I have four Phillies bats and I’ll be tacking on either three or four Astros with that stack. Correa certainly needs to be part of that. Not only are Barria’s struggles with right-handers well documented, but Correa offers some of the best pop (.202 ISO) in this Houston offense when facing right-handed pitching.
OF: Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies ($3.5k)
If I’m stacking Phillies I need to lock up Rhys, who destroyed lefties as a rookie last year. He’s come back down to earth a bit in 2018, but still has success (.352 wOBA, 50% fly ball rate) in these spots. If he can get ahold of one, he’ll pay off instantly.
OF: George Springer – Houston Astros ($3.9k)
You can consider forcing Tyler White or Alex Bregman into your lineup, but I’ll cap this Astros stack with Springer. He’s always at risk of launching one deep and considering he hasn’t done so since August 5th, I’d say he’s beyond due.
Barria obviously has issues with righty power and Springer historically hits righties well. His 2018 numbers are a bit down, but I think he is a great play in this matchup.
OF: Joc Pederson – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.8k)
This should be a very contrarian bat, as nobody is going to be too excited about using Dodgers against Zack Greinke. I certainly won’t stack against him, but Pederson is just too cheap given his power upside (.292 ISO) in this matchup. L.A. is always dangerous at Dodger Stadium, too, while Pederson has already donged Greinke in the past.
You can move things around to try to fit Josh Reddick ($2.9k) in to complete the four-man Houston stack, while guys like Ian Happ or Steven Souza could be interesting pivots if you don’t want Joc.
Util: Wilson Ramos – Philadelphia Phillies ($3.2k)
I really like Matt Olson ($3.3k) tonight against Mike Leake, so if you’re not down with a full Phillies stack, just pick your spots and try to squeeze the A’s masher in. I’ll complete the four-man Phils stack with Ramos, though. He mashes southpaws to the tune of a .258 ISO and is certainly worth a look as part of a stack or one-off on this slate.
Overall, I’m not into the idea of spending big money on a pitcher tonight. Luis Severino is my call there if you do go way up top, but I think Eovaldi is in a great spot and saves you a ton of cash.
Not everyone will agree with a Phillies stack, but they’re in a great park against a pitcher who has issues with contact. They shouldn’t go away in this park against this offense. Again, if you’re not down for that contrarian roll of the dice, just pivot as needed or lower your stack share to two bats or your favorite one-off.
Stacking Astros doesn’t take guts, but on a 15-game slate they’ll probably garner low ownership. Anytime Houston can be contrarian, they’re worth using. Joc is a fine one-off and again, if facing Greinke worries you, feel free to pivot away from him.
Hopefully I can produce a solid lineup again tonight. Whether you’re using this lineup as it stands or picking your spots, I wish you luck. Keep in mind there is some minor weather concern for a couple of games and as always, anyone can be scratched from the lineup at anytime.
Good luck and enjoy the games!