My last installment of daily fantasy baseball picks did not produce a winning lineup. Chris Archer was a total bust and not enough bats went crazy. I took a break over the weekend to hit the reset button, though, and I’m back in action to start a new week with FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS slate on Monday night.
There are three elite pitching options to build around if you don’t mind paying up tonight, but there are also a handful of fun value picks to consider if you want to stack elite bats.
Let’s see what my favorite daily fantasy baseball strategy is with a look at tonight’s FanDuel MLB DFS squad for GPPs:
SP: Noah Syndergaard – New York Mets ($9.4k)
I’m well aware Thor hasn’t been swinging an elite hammer lately, but he’s still a fantastic pitcher and he’s at home against the Reds. Vegas favors New York in this one and Cincinnati does not have the most consistent offense in the majors.
I think there is a good chance a discounted Thor will go overlooked based on recency bias, as well as a couple of other tempting options.
I also like the most expensive arm on the board (Trevor Bauer) and am intrigued by Cole Hamels and Luke Weaver. I love the stacks I can get with Syndergaard, though. Here’s to hoping he rediscovers his elite form and murders a Reds lineup that has not fared well against him (.184 BA, 9 Ks, 0 HR) in limited duty.
C/1B: Ryon Healy – Seattle Mariners ($2.3k)
It is going to be hard to fade the Mariners tonight. Not only do they get an extreme ballpark upgrade on the road in Texas, but they also face a very beatable southpaw in Martin Perez. Seattle has been pretty good all year, but this is a special spot for them.
I’ll start a four-man stack off with Healy, who isn’t always high in the order (or efficient), but blasts left-handed pitching to the tune of a .200 ISO.
That sounds pretty good against Perez, who has gotten blasted from the right side of the plate (.437 wOBA, .221 ISO, 47% hard hit rate) in 2018. Seattle might be chalky in theory tonight, but with a game in Coors Field I don’t mind taking my chances.
2B: Gleyber Torres – New York Yankees ($3.6k)
New York feels like they could be a bit overlooked tonight. Even if they and the Mariners are a bit chalky, though, I don’t mind it as long as they work out. On a slate with Coors and a few positive matchups for lesser offenses, though, it’s possible they could go lower owned that some project.
Either way, the Yanks are a great stack to chase as they face the very beatable Dylan Covey in a hitter’s park. Torres leads the way for me, as he mashes right-handed pitching (.356 wOBA, .240 ISO) and he’ll be facing a guy who can turn into a true gas can in a hurry.
Covey has been blasted quite a bit over the last two years and in 2018 specifically he’s coughed up a ton of contact to both sides of the plate. I prefer to target him with lefties usually, but I won’t pass up Yankees righties. The value and matchup is just too good.
3B: Kyle Seager – Seattle Mariners ($2.6k)
Seager is a great contrarian play tonight (hopefully). Not only is he dirt cheap at a loaded position, but people often feel weird about using a lefty bat against a lefty arm. I will jump at the opportunity in this spot, as Seager has destroyed Martin Perez (.348 BA, 4 HR!) throughout his career and has actually hit lefties (.333 wOBA) just fine this year.
SS: Didi Gregorius – New York Yankees ($3.9k)
While I don’t mind using Torres due to his splits and upside, I do prefer New York bats from the left side of the plate. That brings me to Didi, to can really mash righties (.235 ISO) and Covey’s problems there (.352 wOBA, 37% hard hit rate) can’t be understated.
Don’t ignore Jean Segura ($3.1k) at a discounted price in a great spot, either.
OF: Nelson Cruz – Seattle Mariners ($3.9k)
I don’t need to waste much time here. Cruz is in play for the exact same reasons every other Mariners bat is, plus he’s donged Perez thrice before and owns a disturbing .378 ISO against southpaws this year. If Cruz doesn’t dong here, it’ll be rather shocking.
OF: Mitch Haniger – Seattle Mariners ($3.2k)
Ditto for Haniger, who doesn’t sport a mean ISO this year but still hits lefties very well (.351 wOBA) and has nice pop in general. The park upgrade and the matchup with Perez look favorable, while he’s too cheap given the upside he’s showcased all year long.
OF: David Dahl – Colorado Rockies ($3k)
I don’t really feel the need to cram Coors bats into this lineup, but Dahl stands out as an elite value.
Obviously you can make a case for anyone in this game, but he’s dirt cheap and has really wrecked right-handed pitching (.409 wOBA, .254 ISO) when given a chance in 2018.
Joe Musgrove has been solid with Pittsburgh this year, but a trip to Coors can throw a wrench in anyone’s plans. He’s also had his toughest times against lefties (.346 wOBA, 5% decrease in K rate) this year, so taking a crack at a lefty bet (Charlie Blackmon would be a pricey option) is worth it tonight.
If you can’t afford this, consider pivoting down to Ian Happ ($2.7k). The Chicago Cubs are another terrific stack as they face a hard hit fiend in Jakob Junis. They’re in a tough park for offense, though, so I’m personally considering the full fade.
Util: Greg Bird – New York Yankees ($3.1k)
I’ll end things with a third Yankee, my second of the left-handed variety. You can also look at Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner, but I won’t force a four-man stack if it doesn’t fit comfortably and Bird offers more value.
You’re getting a clean .208 ISO in a good park against a bad pitcher. I’m not sure you can ask for a better situation than that.
Ultimately, I’m eating a little chalk here but this is still a 10-game slate and I think I’ll end up differentiating enough that it really won’t matter. I’m building a dong party around Thor, who should have a chance to churn out his first truly elite outing in quite some time.
This isn’t the most contrarian GPP lineup you’ll happen upon, but sometimes eating the chalk makes good sense. I also like Cardinals righties, Cubs lefties, Angels righties and Pirates righties, but not necessarily enough to stack them or go out of my way to force in one-offs.
In fact, the Mets, Cubs and Angels all feel pretty trappy tonight and I might even go as far as saying the same thing for the Pirates in Coors.
I like the lineup I have here. Pick your spots or submit this squad as it stands. Either way, good luck in your FanDuel daily fantasy baseball contests tonight!