Last night didn’t go quite as planned. Noah Syndergaard (31 fantasy points) got about half the points Trevor Bauer did, while Yankees and Mariners stacks weren’t quite as explosive as I expected.
The good news is that lineup was good enough for me to cash, so if you used my MLB DFS picks in a bigger entry GPP, you may have had a fun night.
It wasn’t an amazing outing, though, so the aim is to get even higher in the standings come Tuesday. Let’s dive into FanDuel’s huge 14-game main slate:
SP: Chase Anderson – San Diego Padres ($7.6k)
Mad Max leads the way tonight but he’s really pricey and he gets a dangerous (and motivated) Braves offense. I’m not sure this is the slate to pay up for him, while none of the other elite arms really call out to me.
Carlos Carrasco should be fine against the Twins, but they did rough him up earlier this year and he tends to have most of his issues at home at Progressive Field. I see Zack Greinke’s home splits and upside against the Phillies, but Philadelphia can also be tough to shut down. Even if he has a good night, I’m not sure he’ll be worth his staggering price tag.
There are a few intermediate options to consider and maybe a couple of dives, but I’ll just roll out Chase Anderson at home against the Padres.
San Diego is bad in general but they specifically struggle against right-handed pitching. With a 22% whiff rate against righties and very little reliable pop in this type of matchup, things project well for Anderson, who dropped 40 fantasy points on them earlier this year.
Anderson has issues with contact and isn’t always sharp at home, but he’s a good price and in too good of a spot to ignore on this slate. If you must pay up, Mad Max is the guy I’d target. I’m just seeking value on this slate and he’s really not the way to get it.
C/1B: Jesus Aguilar – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.4k)
I also like Ryan Zimmerman ($3.1k) here, but Aguilar is in a hitter’s park and has nasty splits (.389 wOBA, .269 ISO) against left-handed pitching. Clayton Richard can be tough at times and he does induce a lot of ground balls, but Aguilar has the lowest ground ball rate (32%) of Milwaukee’s projected starters.
Richard could make Aguilar whiff every time up, but his strikeout rate (16%) isn’t scary and his splits (.342 wOBA, .171 ISO, 43% hard hit rate) against righties do not favor him in a steep park downgrade.
2B: Jeff McNeil – New York Mets ($2.7k)
McNeil is dirt cheap at a position I routinely hate. I don’t feel like spending top dollar on 2B tonight, so I’ll drop down to the Mets slugger who is quickly rising thanks to a hot .364 batting average. McNeil also just donged last night and will be at home against the beatable Sal Romano.
Romano isn’t a scary arm and he specifically has issues against left-handed hitters (.388 wOBA, .230 ISO, 35% fly ball rate, 41% hard hit rate). A full Mets stack from the left side is certainly in play tonight and will go overlooked, but I’m targeting a one-off thanks to McNeil’s hot hitting and nasty splits (.470 wOBA, .267 ISO) against right-handed throwing.
3B: Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals ($3.8k)
I love Rendon’s power (.296 ISO) against southpaws, so I’m game for trying him out even though he’s facing the talented Sean Newcomb. The Braves lefty comes in red hot, but he’s struggled a bit over the past month and this is a huge game (and series) in D.C.
SS: Manny Machado – Los Angeles Dodgers ($3.9k)
I don’t normally go out of my way to target Sean Manaea, but he does give up some contact to the right side of the plate and Manny Machado is always worth a shot. Machado comes in at a discounted price and also happens to wreck left-handed pitching (.386 wOBA, .221 ISO).
Teammate Chris Taylor ($2.6k) is an amazing value if you can’t pay up for Manny here.
OF: Teoscar Hernandez – Toronto Blue Jays ($3.2k)
There are a lot of eye-popping splits to exploit on this massive slate. Hernandez has cooled off remarkably over the past month or so, but he still mashes lefties (.291 ISO) and gets one in Drew Pomeranz that can be gotten to.
Pommy is undoubtedly a talented arm, but he serves up a ton of contact (.409 wOBA, .255 ISO, 37% fly ball rate, 37% hard hit rate) to the right side of the plate. A Jays stack from the right side isn’t at all crazy, but I’ll limit my exposure to Teoscar tonight.
OF: Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.1k)
Braun is always a roll of the dice, but he pieces together a fun two-man Brewers stack. The Brew Crew is a viable three or four-man stack, too, but I’ll stop here and really would limit my exposure to the right side of the plate.
Aguilar is easily the top Brewers masher to eye here, but Braun’s splits against southpaws (.229 ISO) are also quite fun.
OF: Nicholas Castellanos – Detroit Tigers ($3k)
Castellanos is another guy with awesome splits (.466 wOBA, .245 ISO) against left-handed pitching and he remains too cheap to ignore. He could be heating up, too, as he donged in his last game and has four hits over his last four games.
He’ll get Andrew Heaney, who is a talented arm in a pitcher-friendly park, but also gives up loads of contact (.192 ISO, 39% fly ball rate, 41% hard hit rate) to righty bats. I’m not stacking Detroit hitters here, but one or two are worth a look and I’m certainly not paying up for Heaney in this spot.
Util: Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies ($4.2k)
There is so much value on the board tonight that I don’t even think you need to go out of your way to force would-be elite bats into your lineup. You also can comfortably get to Mad Max or another elite arm if you sacrifice in a few spots and pick the right value bats.
That being said, I do like Blackmon in this spot. He comes in ice cold (1 for his last 19) and there are a ton of games on this slate, so I love the idea of him being really low-owned. He’s still in Coors against Jameson Taillon, who is way less effective against lefties. Blackmon’s splits (.366 wOBA, .246 ISO) and this park make Chuck a really fun play.
I know I’m playing with fire by testing out Chase Anderson in Miller Park, but his matchup with the Padres is obviously great and using him opens up room for all of the bats I covet.
I’m only forced to take one dive, yet McNeil doesn’t really feel like a big risk given his matchup and the way he’s been swinging the bat.
Overall, I’ve got lots of power in this lineup and very favorable matchups. Hopefully it all leads to a big finish and also gets you in the green. Thanks for reading and good luck with your own daily fantasy baseball picks tonight at FanDuel!