I had the right idea when I decided to back Chase Anderson on Tuesday night. It just didn’t work out. Anderson looked like a clear value arm at home against the San Diego Padres, but he couldn’t keep them in check as they went on to score 11 runs in an easy win.
While that was a gaffe, my bats weren’t all bad as using hitters from the Blue Jays and Brewers specifically wasn’t a terrible MLB DFS strategy. Fading the likes of the Red Sox, Pirates and Rangers probably kept you from cashing big money in any tournaments at FanDuel, however.
It’s tough to really hit everything on a loaded 14-game slate, but I was still shocked to see the Colorado Rockies score just two runs at home. The rest of my bats largely got on the board, but were ultimately too quiet. Hopefully you just used Jesus Aguilar and moved along last night.
The good news is we all get to start over and try again with Wednesday’s calm nine-game slate over at FanDuel. Even better, FD is offering a free roll so if you don’t feel like putting any cash on the line, you don’t have to.
With tourneys on the mind, here are some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for tonight’s daily fantasy baseball action:
SP: Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers ($11k)
If you’re worried about Kershaw against an extreme fly ball offense or think he’ll be too chalky, consider pivoting down to Luis Severino. The Yankees ace has been abysmal for several starts now, but he’s coming in at a discounted price, is still an elite pitcher and gets the White Sox. Recency bias may help to keep his ownership low.
While I’m interested in Sev, his recent form is just so bad. Kershaw is pricey, but while Oakland can hit the ball hard, they do whiff at a 22% clip versus southpaws and this is usually a pretty friendly park to pitchers.
I don’t have illusions of Kershaw shutting this team out, but he’s looked good lately and may have a shot at notching 10+ strikeouts for the first time since (gulp) April.
Personally, I tend to think the matchup and price tag makes Kershaw contrarian. That’s always something I’m game for.
C/1B: Max Muncy – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.9k)
The best part about paying up for Kershaw is that there is plenty of value to allow for it tonight. That starts with his own teammates, as Max Muncy and a slew of Dodgers are priced down as if they’re a bunch of spares.
Again, this isn’t the best park for scoring, but Muncy is dirt cheap and has smashed both sides of the plate this year. Mike Fiers makes his Athletics debut and while he’s not exactly a gas can, I think this is a nice spot to attack him.
Fiers has given up some power to the left side of the plate this year (.216 ISO, 46% fly ball rate, 37% hard hit rate) and only carries a 16% whiff rate against lefty bats. This isn’t a good spot for him, while Muncy’s .322 ISO against right-handed pitching is obviously worth chasing.
2B: Travis Shaw – Milwaukee Brewers ($3k)
A small Dodgers stack is in play tonight, but I also love the Brewers. Milwaukee didn’t exactly burn you last night, but tonight they could be even better when their nasty left-handed bats take on a right-handed pitcher making hi MLB debut.
Obviously MLB pitching debuts can go either way, so there’s a decent chance the Brew Crew stinks up the joint. However, the Brewers are stacked with power, in a tense NL Central division race and get to take on a newbie at home in a hitter’s paradise.
I’m siding with the Brewers here and I’m a bit shocked at how cheap their best lefty mashers are. Shaw stands out at his price and he sports a clean .282 ISO in these types of spots.
I will say that Brett Kennedy has been quite good in the minors (10-0, 2.72 ERA), so perhaps using him in a GPP as a hedge is another daily fantasy baseball strategy to consider.
3B: Mike Moustakas – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.1k)
While I do fear Kennedy’s staunch numbers in the minors, I prefer the Brewers tonight and will keep it rolling with Moose at a discounted price. The Brewers are simply loaded with power and there’s going to be way too much for Kennedy to work around.
Moustakas has demolished righties (.240 ISO, .341 wOBA) and is disciplined at the plate (15% whiff rate), so of everyone in this potential stack, he might be my favorite stick.
SS: Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox ($3.4k)
I’ll take a discounted Red Sox stick here in Bogaerts, who remains a very efficient hitter who can even pack some pop in his bat. He’s not J.D. Martinez or Mookie Betts, but Xander still owns a .254 ISO against righties and will face an inexperienced hurler in Mike Hauschild.
Hauschild was good in his 2018 debut, but he hasn’t been that sharp in the minors and was terrible with the Rangers last year. As always, a Boston stack is in play, but I want the best pitching option on the board, so I’ll be seeking value in their lineup instead.
OF: Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.9k)
The Brewers are simply too cheap. You can toss Ryan Braun, Jonathan Schoop or Lorenzo Cain in here (I’d prefer Cain), but I won’t pay all the way up for Christian Yelich ($4.4k!). I’ll cap it at three Brewers here and Thames is the perfect guy to end the stack with thanks to his dirt cheap price and disgusting power (.303 ISO) against right-handed pitching.
There’s a small chance Brett Kennedy schools the Brewers, but I tend to think he’ll get rocked here. Fire up your Brewers with confidence tonight.
OF: Adam Duvall – Atlanta Braves ($2.6k)
Tommy Milone was obscenely great in his last start. I’m not banking on him being that lethal again. He’s had a terrible time against right-handed hitters for much of his career and while I won’t throw a four-man ATL stack at him, a dirt cheap Duvall is worth a look.
Duvall gets the joy of playing for a winner after spending so much time losing in Cincinnati. He should relish swinging away at Milone with his nice .207 ISO against southpaws. Ronald Acuna, Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers are all in play as well, but I’ll limit my Braves exposure to just a one-off bat.
OF: Joc Pederson – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.8k)
Cody Bellinger is in play here at just $100 more and I really don’t think a full four-man Dodgers stack is a bad idea tonight. I’ll limit my exposure to their two best power hitters against righties, though, as Joc brings a nasty .309 ISO to the table and should lead off against Fiers.
Again, I really don’t label Fiers as a gas can, but tonight is a solid time to bet on him turning into that kind of guy.
Util: Teoscar Hernandez – Toronto Blue Jays ($3.2k)
I love the Brewers and Dodgers tonight, but I also like several one-off bats. I tried Teoscar and his awesome lefty splits last night and he was fine (9.5 fantasy points), so I don’t mind going back to the well again.
Brian Johnson has been pretty good for the Red Sox, but he’s not an elite pitcher and he’ll be dealing with a fairly dangerous Jays lineup in a park that can prove deadly. Hernandez has rocked southpaws (.288 ISO), so if you aren’t planning on going with full Brewers/Dodgers stacks, he’s a solid option to cram into your lineup.
Cleveland, Boston, New York and Chicago all promise to be fairly chalky tonight, so I like the possibility of both Milwaukee and L.A. being somewhat contrarian.
That, combined with Kershaw, could make for a GPP gem. That’s the hope, but pick your spots as needed. Either way, I wish you luck in your MLB DFS contests at FanDuel tonight!