I’ve been off the radar (almost literally) for the last several days but I am back to deliver some MLB DFS Picks for tonight’s 15-game slate.
Moving forward, these MLB DFS Picks will be coming from FanDuel rather than DraftKings, but most of my picks will work for either site with the exceptions revolving around cost.
Let’s get going and see if we can make some money on our first set of FanDuel MLB DFS Picks on this jam-packed Tuesday night slate!
P – Jack Flaherty (STL) – $7,700 vs. PIT
Of course with FanDuel, we only roster one pitcher and I am going to pay down a little bit for young right-hander Jack Flaherty as he takes on the Pirates at home this evening. Home has been where Flaherty has been at his best this season and the splits aren’t even close. On the road, Flaherty has struggled to the tune of a 5.96 ERA, 5.15 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP to go along with a big 4.57 BB/9 clip. However, the 23-year-old has been much better at home to the tune of a 3.48 ERA, 4.37 FIP and 3.47 xFIP to go along with a much-improved 1.57 BB/9 rate. I also like the fact that his strikeout rate is slightly higher at home as well with a 10.10 K/9 clip at Busch Stadium this season. Now, the Pirates actually don’t strike out a ton against right-handed pitching with a 19.2% K-rate against righties on the season, however I want to note that the Cardinals are -178 to win this one on the moneyline tonight, giving Flaherty plenty of win upside on top of his excellent work at home. Finally, keep in mind that FanDuel also rewards quality starts, something Flaherty did his last time out with seven innings of one-run ball with six punchouts over the Giants.
C/1B – Carlos Santana (CLE) – $4,300 vs. DET
The Tigers have been an easy team to stack against this season and that doesn’t change tonight as the Indians get another crack at one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball. Left-hander Ryan Carpenter gets the nod tonight as it’s been a rough go for him this season. In eight starts at the MLB level, Carpenter has been touched up to the tune of an 8.36 ERA, 6.80 FIP and 5.82 xFIP. He’s also made 11 starts at the Triple-A level and posted an uninspiring 4.65 ERA, 4.41 FIP and 4.79 xFIP at the minors’ highest level. Add in the important fact that the Tigers’ bullpen ranks 26th with a 5.01 ERA and 29th with a 5.32 FIP and we have plenty to work with here. Santana is having a wonderful season as evidenced by his All-Star selection as he’s already cracked 21 homers in 91 games and is just three shy of the 24 he hit all of last season. The switch-hitting first baseman has hit right-handed pitching for more power than lefties, but still owns a .905 OPS and a huge 140 wRC+ against lefties, although he will still see right-handed pitching once that brutal Tigers bullpen enters the game.
2B – Derek Dietrich (CIN) – $3,300 vs. CHC
The Indians should see some ownership tonight and there are several other lineups that warrant ownership as well, but I am going to try and slide under the radar a little bit with the Reds as they tale on the Cubs and right-hander Alec Mills at Wrigley Field. Tonight mark Mills’ season debut in the big leagues and he hasn’t performed well in the minors with a 4.73 ERA, 5.32 FIP and 5.38 xFIP at Triple-A this season. In two big league starts and 12 big league appearances spanning 21.1 innings, Mills owns a 5.48 ERA in his brief big league career to this point. Along with the Reds projected to score five runs, I think we can get some low-owned production from a Reds stack tonight. Enter Derek Dietrich who has absolutely feasted on right-handed pitching this season with a massive .357 ISO and .931 OPS against them while all 19 of his long balls have come against right-handed pitching. He’s been better at home, but still owns a big-time .255 ISO against right-handed pitching on the road so I have no problems with Dietrich against the inexperienced Mills tonight.
3B – Eugenio Suarez (CIN) – $3,500 vs. CHC
Continuing our Reds stack is Suarez who has developed into a big-time power threat at third base. Suarez has proven that the 34 home runs and .243 ISO he posted last season were no fluke as he’s launched 22 homers and owns a slightly higher .249 ISO this time around. The .274 ISO and .981 OPS he owns against lefties is better than the .242 ISO and .773 OPS he owns against righties, however let’s also note that Suarez has hit 16 home runs against righties while 14 of his 16 doubles have come against a righty, so the power is very much present against right-handed pitching as well. I also like the fact that he’s hit righties for an increased .255 ISO on the road this season. He’s also white-hot at the plate right now as Suarez has homered twice and tripled over his last four games since the All-Star break. He’s also driven in three runs and scored five himself in that span. It’s fair to expect some notable power from Suarez against a pitcher who has allowed a 1.69 HR/9 clip at Triple-A this season.
SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) – $4,100 vs. DET
Lindor will actually lead off this Indians stack tonight as he will his atop the Cleveland batting order which should prove to be a very valuable spot against this Tigers pitching staff tonight. I believe Lindor logs at least five plate appearances and perhaps six in this one tonight thanks to that spot atop the lineup. He brings a wealth of power and speed to the lineup as he’s hit 14 home runs and swiped 13 bases in his injury-shortened season to this point. Now, the switch-hitting shortstop as been better against right-handed pitching this season with a .232 ISO and .886 OPS against righties compared to a .138 ISO and .732 OPS against lefties. However, for whatever reason, he’s hit left-handed pitching for a .236 ISO and 1.001 OPS with a huge 159 wRC+ at home this season. He’s also swiped five of his 13 bases against lefties, so the speed potential is there against southpaws. Let’s also keep in mind that Lindor will see right-handed pitching tonight as well out of that Tigers bullpen so I’m simply looking for him to tee off on more than the starter Carpenter tonight.
OF – Oscar Mercado (CLE) – $2,700 vs. DET
I like the value we are getting here with Mercado as he is projected to hit in the two-hole tonight which should have him logging plenty of plate appearances slotted in behind Lindor. Mercado had himself a night against these Tigers in the series opener last night as he hit two home runs as part of a three-hit night. Mercado has hit three home runs off of both lefties and righties this season, but the fact that he has hit those three homers in about half of the at-bats against lefties than he has righties is a good sign against the starter Carpenter who has allowed a whopping 2.63 HR/9 on the season in the big leagues. The 24-year-old rookie also brings some stolen base upside to the table with seven steals on the season, but I’m also thrilled to see that four of those seven bags have actually come against left-handed pitching. Mercado has hit lefties for a big-time .286 ISO and .840 OPS at home this season, so let’s look for the rookie to flash some of that power/speed potential tonight.
OF – Jordan Luplow (CLE) – $2,600 vs. DET
If you like the value we are getting with Mercado than you will love the value we are getting with Luplow who is projected to hit in the cleanup spot tonight, giving us a 1-4 Indians stack. Luplow has feasted on left-handed pitching this season as he enters this one tonight sporting an absolutely massive .369 ISO and 1.071 OPS on the season versus left-handed pitching to go along with his huge 174 wRC+ against southpaws. Those numbers get a bump up at home as well as he’s posted an unreal .404 ISO and 1.079 OPS on the season against lefties at Progressive Field. Luplow has logged 84 at-bats against lefties this season, and he’s homered eight times and doubled seven times against them. In other words, he’s logged an extra-base hit in almost 20% of his at-bats against lefties. He hasn’t shown an ability to hit right-handed pitching for much power, so the idea here is for Luplow to get on Carpenter early and often tonight before the right-handers come out of the bullpen.
OF – Jesse Winker (CIN) – $3,100 vs. CHC
Winker is confirmed to be hitting in the leadoff spot tonight against Alec Mills and the Cubs and the young outfielder has absolutely feasted on right-handed pitching this season. Entering this one tonight. Winker owns a big-time .243 ISO and .850 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching to go along with a 116 wRC+ Like his teammate Dietrich above, Winker has been better at home this season, but I still like his .186 ISO against righties on the road. All 13 of his homers and all 12 of his doubles this season have come against a right-handed pitching, although he doesn’t often start against lefties with just 35 at-bats against a southpaw this season. To be quite honest, this guy is one of the more underrated bats around. He consistently posted batting averages near, at, or well above the .300 mark throughout his minor league career and he owns a .281 mark in his brief big league tenure to this point. He also has a career .371 OBP in the big leagues and with the increased power this season he’s become a weapon out of that leadoff spot against right-handed pitching here in 2019.
UTIL – Yasiel Puig (CIN) – $3,600 vs. CHC
Completing this four-man Reds stack is Puig who has posted some big-time numbers this season against both left and right-handed pitching, making him rather matchup-proof when the bullpen arrives. Puig enters this one sporting a .233 ISO and .840 OPS against left-handed pitching and a .251 ISO and .809 OPS against right-handed pitching. Puig’s launched 22 home runs on the season, but he also brings plenty of stolen base upside to the table with 13 steals on the season as well. Puig has come out of the All-Star break swinging a white-hot stick as he’s gone 6 for 16 (.375) with two homers, a double, four runs scored and five RBI over the four second-half games to this point. Puig has enjoyed plenty of success at Wrigley Field this season as he’s gone 5 for 14 (.357) with two home runs and four RBI over three games at this venue this season. For his career, he’s posted a big 1.054 OPS with five home runs, four doubles and a triple in 79 career at-bats at Wrigley Field. Plenty of cross-category upside to be had with this pick here tonight.