We received a real nice and almost historic outing from our pitcher inside of last night’s FanDuel MLB DFS Picks, however despite getting plenty of hits from our offense we lacked extra-base power.
Chris Paddack took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the light-hitting Marlins, but a leadoff home run surrendered to Starlin Castro quashed that notion. Paddack wound up going 7.2 innings and allowing just the solo home run while striking out eight en route to the rookie’s sixth win of the season.
Our four-man White Sox stack just didn’t get the job done despite scoring five runs as projected. Yoan Moncada and James McCann were held to zeros, which destroyed our lineup. Jose Abreu notched two singles and scored a run as the highest-scoring member of the stack while Leurys Garcia provided just one single. The bottom of the White Sox lineup did the damage in this one.
Our three-man Royals stack fared better, but we still received very little extra-base power. Whit Merrifield indeed delivered on his cross-category upside with three singles, two walks, an RBI, a run scored and a stolen base to boot. Alex Gordon gave us our lone extra-base hit of the night with a double while he added a single, a walk and a pair of runs scored as well. Jorge Soler singled twice and notched three RBIs as well.
Our one-off second baseman did not start as Domingo Leyba managed to log a pinch-hit at-bat and struck out. We missed out on a D-backs stack as they hung 19 runs on the Rangers in last night’s win.
Our pitching has been real good on back-to-back nights but we need to get the sticks going, something I’ll look to do on tonight’s seven-game main slate!
P – Madison Bumgarner (SF) – $9,000 vs. NYM
The Mets and Giants get together for tonight’s series opener and San Francisco and we have a couple of low run projections for this one. The Giants are projected to score just 3.6 runs while the Mets sit with a 3.5 run projection. Regardless of run projection, however, I like Bumgarner in this one tonight as he has been good at home this season and very good as of late. The left-hander enters this one sporting a 3.62 ERA at home this season to go along with a 9.60 K/9 clip. His 3.34 FIP and 3.84 xFIP at home very much support his rock-solid work at home this season. Bumgarner has also been on a roll of late, pitching to a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts with a 12.60 K/9 clip in that span as well. The Mets scored 14 runs in a win yesterday afternoon and they rank sixth with a .340 wOBA against lefties this year, but they struggled against left-hander Martin Perez in yesterday’s game before attacking the Twins’ bullpen. With the roll Bumgarner is on and his work at home this season I am very confident in the Giants’ ace at a reasonable price tonight.
C/1B – Christian Walker (ARI) – $3,000 vs. MIL
Call me a day late on the D-backs stack after they scored 19 runs in last night’s blowout win in Texas, however I like their upside against the Brewers and right-hander Zach Davies tonight. There’s no doubt Davies has been good in suppressing runs this season with a 2.89 ERA, but according to his peripherals he is due for some serious regression. He also owns a 4.28 FIP and 5.00 xFIP and the right-hander owns a minuscule 5.96 K/9 rate. His SIERA (skill-interactive ERA) sits at a whopping 5.27. This guy is going to get blown up soon and I’ll look for the D-backs to do just that tonight. The right-handed hitting Walker 0wns some reverse splits on the season as he has hit right-handers to the tune of a huge .260 ISO and .872 OPS on the season to go along with a .361 wOBA and 121 wRC+. He’s launched 18 home runs overall, 15 against righties, and we also get a hint of stolen base upside with five steals on the season. The 28-year-old has a serious power track record in the minors and he’s made good on his first full season in the big leagues this year, so let’s see if he can keep rolling tonight.
2B – Eduardo Escobar (ARI) – $3,700 vs. MIL
Escobar was a big-time culprit in last night’s blowout win as he launched a pair of home runs and knocked in five of the 19 runs the D-backs posted on the Rangers. The power has very much been there for the switch-hitting infielder, although unlike last year the power has been much more prevalent against left-handed pitching as he owns a ridiculous .339 ISO and 1.139 OPS against lefties on the season. Still, there’s not much wrong with his strong .217 ISO on the season against right-handed pitching while his first home run of last night’s game came against a right-hander in Jesse Chavez. He has launched 12 home runs on the season against right-handed pitching and his hint of stolen base upside is increased against righties with a pair of steals against them on the season. He has three homers in five games coming out of the All-Star break and is facing a pitcher due to allow many more home runs moving forward, so I’ll take the power stroke of Escobar against this right-hander and run.
3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) – $2,600 vs. MIL
Lamb has appeared in just 19 games this season due to injury and missed a big chunk of the 2018 season with shoulder issues, but he’s already showing his power stroke that saw him hit 59 home runs between the 2016 and 2017 seasons when he was last healthy. Like a lot of his teammates, Lamb had a big night last night with a pair of doubles, two runs scored and two RBI while he now has three doubles and two home runs over his last seven games. The lefty-swinging Lamb has pummelled right-handed pitching in his career as he owns a .218 ISO and .837 OPS with a 115 wRC+ against them to this point. In that 2017 season, his last fully-healthy season – Lamb crushed right-handers for a .270 ISO and .938 OPS with a 133 wRC+. If this guy is truly finding that same power stroke we’ve seen from him in the past it’s going to hurt a lot of right-handed pitching moving forward. Finally, while he’s just 1 for 5 in his career against Davies, that lone hit came in home run form so I am digging the value upside we are getting with Lamb at a tiny price tonight.
SS – Jorge Polanco (MIN) – $3,700 vs. OAK
After filling in my stacks I was left with the shortstop position open and $3,700 to fill it and it doesn’t take a genius to like Polanco in this spot as he takes on right-hander Mike Fiers. There’s nothing wrong with a Twins stack tonight either as Fiers has struggled on the road this season to the tune of a 5.03 ERA, 5.20 FIP and 5.23 xFIP with an elevated 1.63 HR/9 to boot, numbers that are miles above his excellent work at home this season. Enter Polanco who is having a wonderful season hitting .307 with an .867 OPS to go along with 13 home runs and four stolen bases on the campaign. The switch-hitter has done far more damage against right-handed pitching than against lefties as he owns a big-time .246 ISO, .952 OPS, .393 wOBA and 146 wRC+ on the season against righties, numbers that simply tower over his work against southpaws. He’s logged 21 of his 25 doubles against righties as well as 12 of his 13 homers. Finally, three of his four steals have come against a righty. There’s just a ton to like about Polanco in this matchup tonight.
OF – Ketel Marte (ARI) – $3,700 vs. MIL
Marte has been one of the best breakout stories of this season as he has proven to be a cross-category beast for the D-backs in 2019. The 25-year-old showed signs of a big breakout last season as he increase his production all-round and hit a career-high 14 home runs while stealing six bases. This season, he has already smashed that home run mark with 21 long balls on the season while he’s swiped four bases and has hit .313 to this point with a huge .934 OPS. Marte is also one of the most difficult players in baseball to strikeout with a tiny 13.6% K-rate on the season, the same mark he posted in 2018. Marte’s power and production has been a little higher against left-handed pitching as he’s a switch-hitter, but let’s keep in mind he’s hit righties to the tune of a .234 ISO and .921 OPS on the year with a .383 wOBA and 135 wRC+. He’s come out of the gate from the All-Star break swinging a hot bat with two doubles, a triple, a home run, three runs scored and five RBI over five second half games. There’s plenty of damage to be done out of the projected two-hole tonight for Marte.
OF – Jesse Winker (CIN) – $2,800 vs. STL
Once again I am looking to the Reds as a source of lower-owned production on a smaller slate as they take on right-hander Dakota Hudson and the rival St. Louis Cardinals. Hudson has been real good at home this season, but he’s struggled some on the road with a 4.08 ERA, but also a 5.20 FIP to go along with an elevated 1.55 HR/9 rate. Furthermore, he’s struggled mightily against left-handed hitters on the road with a 7.29 FIP and 5.12 xFIP to go along with a huge 2.53 HR/9 in such scenarios, so I like a couple of Reds left-handed bats as part of a three-man Reds stack tonight, beginning here with Winker. Winker’s had a wonderful season against right-handed pitching, especially at home. He’s hit righties for an overall .239 ISO and .841 OPS on the season, but that production ratchets up to a massive .301 ISO and .965 OPS with a 143 wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching this season. He’s 3 for 5 with a double in his brief history against Hudson and provides real nice cross-category upside out of the leadoff spot in this one tonight.
OF – Yasiel Puig (CIN) – $3,400 vs. STL
I just mentioned how Hudson has been worse against left-handed bats on the road, however Puig has been such a big power/speed threat this season and is hitting right-handed pitching so well that I had a tough time keeping this to a mini-stack as I am including him in a three-man stack instead. Puig also has nice career numbers against Hudson to this point as well. Entering this one tonight, Puig has hit right-handed pitching for a .243 ISO and .797 OPS on the season as 17 of his 22 homers and 11 of his 13 steals on the season have come at the expense of a right-handed pitcher. At home, however, that production gets a big boost as he owns a .278 ISO and .948 OPS to go along with a 139 wRC+ against righties this season at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Puig has gone 4 for 8 (.500) with a double and a stolen base his his brief history against Hudson to this point as well. He’s homered twice in six games out of the break and I am digging his power/speed upside, especially at home, in this one tonight.
UTIL – Joey Votto (CIN) – $3,100 vs. STL
It’s clear that Votto’s bat is in decline mode as he’s once again struggling to hit for notable power, however I still want him in this stack out of the projected and valuable two-hole tonight. Votto’s power comes almost solely against right-handed pitching as he owns a .165 ISO against righties compared to a tiny .069 mark against lefties. He carries a decent .751 OPS at home against righties this season to go along with a solid .331 wOBA and 101 wRC+. His 16% walk rate at home against righties are keeping those numbers afloat, but Votto has stroked a pair of doubles in six games since the All-Star break. There’s also a bit of stolen base upside here as he’s swiped a pair of bags on the season. Look, Votto is nowhere near the perennial MVP-caliber player he was earlier in his career and as recent as the 2017 season, however he still has his moments and considering he’s hitting in the two-hole behind Winker and two spots ahead of Puig, I feel it’s appropriate to include him in this stack to perhaps find some extra-base power or simply get on base ahead of the dangerous bat of Puig.