Last night’s FanDuel MLB DFS Picks just weren’t good enough to get into the money.
Zack Greinke did a solid yet unspectacular job against the Miami Marlins. Greinke hurled six innings of one-run ball to go along with five strikeouts and left the game in line to earn the win. That said, closer Greg Holland blew the save and allowed two Miami runs in the bottom of the ninth and the Marlins walked off on the D-backs, robbing Greinke of a win in the process.
Our four-man Angels stack didn’t get a ton of hits, but when they did they made them count. Justin Upton homered, Mike Trout doubled and Shohei Ohtani tripled, but the Angels scored just three runs against Asher Wojciechowski and the brutak Orioles ‘pen, not giving us enough value for the high price we paid for that stack.
Our mini-stacks also weren’t terribly productive. Ji-Man Choi singled and scored, but Willy Adames at least gave us some value with a double, a walk and a run scored at the minimum price.
Finally, our Giants mini stack was solid as Donovan Solano doubled and scored a run while Tyler Austin singled, walked and scored a run in an eventual Giants win.
Let’s bear down and get some profitable picks going on this 10-game main slate!
P – Steven Matz (NYM) – $6,400 vs. PIT
Obviously Gerrit Cole is the top arm on the slate given the immense strikeout upside, but I am going to go a different direction for GPP purposes and roster Steven Matz as he takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates at home. Those latter two words are the key to this matchup as Matz has been excellent at home this season while his strikeout rate pops at home as well. Matz also gets the best matchup a pitcher could ask for in terms of the Pirates’ inability to hit left-handed pitching. Entering this one tonight, Matz sports a 2.54 ERA at home this season to go along with a 3.12 FIP, 3.53 xFIP and a 10.15 K/9. Compared to his 6.40 ERA, 6.76 FIP, 5.36 xFIP and 7.27 K/9 on the road, you can see that Matz is a completely different pitcher at home. Furthermore, the Pirates enter this one tied for last in all of baseball with a .281 wOBA against left-handed pitching on the season while their 23.2% K-rate against them is roughly league average. I think there is a ton of value in Matz at this price given his work at home this season, so give him a shot in some GPPs this evening.
C/1B – Matt Olson (OAK) – $3,700 vs. TEX
I am loading this lineup with power tonight and that begins here with Olson as he kicks off an A’s mini-stack against the Texas Rangers tonight in Oakland. The Athletics will take their swings against right-hander Adrian Sampson and the brutal Rangers bullpen that enters this one sporting a 4.83 ERA, good for 23rd in all of baseball. Sampson enters this one sporting a 5.19 ERA and 5.00 FIP on the season to go along with a big 1.76 HR/9 as well. Enter Olson who actually enters this one sporting some reverse splits on the season, but he still owns a real powerful bat against right-handed pitching. Entering this one tonight, Olson sports a .253 ISO and .846 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching to go along with a 123 wRC+. For whatever reason his production drops at home against righties, but I still feel he has a ton of upside given his massive power and the fact that Sampson allows plenty of home runs. I don’t mind paying the price given our cost flexibility tonight.
2B – Scooter Gennett (CIN) – $2,600 vs. COL
Gennett is probably the lone player in this lineup without a track record of power in the 2019 season as he’s missed most of the year due to injury, but the second baseman has shown a ton of power in the last couple of seasons. Gennett has logged only 54 at-bats on the season and he has yet to hit a home run, however he gets a good matchup to do so in this one tonight. The Reds will take on right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez who enters this one sporting a 5.14 ERA, 5.58 FIP and a 5.12 xFIP on the season to go along with a 1.29 HR/9 clip. In fact, Gonzalez hadn’t even pitched in the big leagues since the 2016 season prior to this season, so there’s plenty of opportunity for Gennett to find his stroke in this one. After all, he posted a .196 ISO and .882 OPS last season against right-handed pitching as well as a massive .261 ISO and .930 OPS against righties in the 2017 season. Obviously the power is present it just needs to be unlocked here in 2019 and this is a nice home matchup for that to take place tonight.
3B – Eugenio Suarez (CIN) – $3,700 vs. COL
Suarez has plenty of pop in that bat and despite him logging better power numbers against left-handed pitching I’m not concerned in the least that he can’t get to Gonzalez for some power in this one tonight. After all, Suarez enters this one sporting a .273 ISO and .835 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching to go along with a .343 wOBA and 109 wRC+. The numbers drop a little bit at home despite the hitting-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati as Suarez owns a .235 ISO and .832 OPS at home on the season against righties, but the wRC+ does increase to 111 in such scenarios. Suarez is also hitting for a ton of power since the All-Star break as he enters this one sporting a .511 ISO and 1.194 OPS with a whopping seven home runs since July 12th. He’s smacked 27 long balls on the season, 21 of which have come against righties while 15 of his 17 doubles have also come against a righty. Love the power upside with this pick.
SS – Marcus Semien (OAK) – $3,200 vs. TEX
Completing but technically leading off my A’s mini-stack tonight is Semien who brings some power and stolen base upside into this lineup tonight. Semien has hit 15 home runs on the season, which is a big number for the shortstop as he hit 15 all of last season. He might be hard-pressed to reach the 27 he hit in the 2016 season, but his .184 ISO on the season is notably higher than his .159 career mark. Semien also has six steals to his credit on the year. He owns fairly even lefty/righty splits as Semien enters this one sporting a .183 ISO and .798 OPS on the season to go along with a .340 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against righties this season. His power against righties still shows at some as he owns an almost-identical .185 ISO at home against righties this season. Of course, the stolen base upside plays higher against a right-handed pitcher as all of his six steals on the season have come against a righty. Nice to have the power/speed combo with Semien in this lineup.
OF – Jesse Winker (CIN) – $2,800 vs. COL
Completing our three-man Reds stack is Winker who has hit right-handed pitching for a ton of power this season, especially at home where this one will take place tonight as Great American Ball Park is one of the best parks in baseball for left-handed power. I would probably prefer Yasiel Puig in this one given his stolen base upside on top of the power, but for cost reasons I am using Winker. Entering this one tonight, Winker is sporting a .243 ISO and .867 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching, but those numbers climb to a .285 ISO and .967 OPS on the season against righties at home. After not homering since July 1st, Winker homered as part of a two-hit night three games aho and doubled in last night’s series opener, so I am glad to see him finding his power stroke before we get him into another lineup. Again, the matchup against Gonzalez is a favorable one and one that Winker and his Reds stackmates should be able to take advantage of tonight.
OF – Mike Trout (LAA) – $5,000 vs. BAL
Our four-man Angels stack didn’t work out for us last night as the Orioles held the Angels to just three runs, but I am going to give them another shot as these three players just clobber right-handed pitching and get a favorable matchup against righty Aaron Brooks and the league’s worst bullpen in this one tonight. Brooks enters this one sporting a 5.16 ERA on the season to go along with a 5.46 FIP, 5.25 xFIP and a big 1.82 HR/9 clip, so there is plenty of room for these powerful Angels bats to do some damage in this one. Trout doesn’t need much of an introduction, especially after mentioning his reverse-splits in last night’s article. Trout owns a massive .391 ISO and 1.155 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching and a .384 ISO and 1.162 OPS on the season at home against right-handed pitching. We also get some stolen base upside with Trout as he’s swiped eight bags on the season. Not much reason to fade the best player in baseball tonight.
OF – Shohei Ohtani (LAA) – $3,900 vs. BAL
Ohtani continued his extra-base assault on right-handed pitching with a triple in last night’s game as he continues to mash opposite-handed pitching here in 2019. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year enters this one tonight sporting a .259 ISO and .913 OPS to go along with a .376 wOBA and 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season. Those numbers get an increase to a .329 ISO and 1.100 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching at home. With Ohtani, we also get stolen base upside as he’s swiped eight bases on the season, seven of which have come at the expense of a righty. The guy is making hard contact at a huge 54.8% rate against right-handed pitching at home this season as well, so it’s no wonder why the power has played up so much at home. He is slated to hit right behind Trout in the three-hole this evening and should get plenty of RBI chances as a result.
UTIL – Justin Upton (LAA) – $3,700 vs. BAL
Completing our lineup and our Angels stack once again tonight is Upton who gave us a home run in last night’s game as he too has done serious damage against righties this season, albeit in a shorter sample due to injury. Still, Upton will enter tonight’s contest sporting a .243 ISO and .945 OPS on the season against righties to go along with a huge .393 wOBA and 152 wRC+. This isn’t the first season that Upton has sported reverse splits this extreme as we don’t have to look too far back for evidence of righty-mashing. He posted a .232 ISO and .875 OPS to go along with a .373 wOBA and 141 wRC+ against right-handed pitching just last season. Like with Trout and Ohtani, we also get some stolen base upside with Upton. He has just one steal in a short season in 2019, but he stole eight bases last season and 14 the year prior. This Angels three-man stack has some of the very best power upside on the slate, especially when we factor in the matchup with the terrible Orioles pitching staff. so make sure to get these guys into your lineup tonight.