My last set of FanDuel MLB DFS Picks came on Saturday and we received some big-time value from our starting pitcher while getting some power with our bats.
Our low-cost pitcher, Steven Matz, continued his home dominance this season as Matz hurled a complete-game shutout, allowing five hits, no walks and striking out seven in a 3-0 Mets win. What a performance and what value we received at just $6,400.
Our three-man Angels stack delivered us some power as both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani hit home runs, but unfortunately Justin Upton wasn’t able to get in on the action against a weak Orioles pitching staff.
We also received some power from our A’s mini-stack as Marcus Semien homered as part of a two-hit night while he also scored a pair of runs as well. Again, the entire mini-stack didn’t produce as Matt Olson posted a goose egg in this one.
Finally, our three-man Reds stack also yielded a home run, this time from third baseman Eugenio Suarez who hit a tw0-run shot. Jesse Winker delivered a walk before being lifted for a pinch hitter while Scooter Gennett unfortunately didn’t start in this one, so hopefully you were able to find a second baseman that had a productive night.
All told, it was a real nice lineup and that effort from Matz really put us over the top.
Let’s move on and see if we can get our week started on the right note with tonight’s seven-game Monday night slate!
P – Chris Paddack (SD) – $8,900 vs. BAL
The Padres are working with six starters at the moment with a young rotation of arms that warrant their innings being limited, so Paddack start tonight for the first time since last Tuesday against the New York Mets. Tuesday wasn’t his best outing, but Paddack almost threw a no-hitter in his previous outing and his name would be firmly in the NL Rookie of the Year race if it weren’t for Pete Alonso’s bat in Queens. It’s been a wildly successful season for the right-hander who never threw a pitch above Double-A prior to this season and made just seven starts at the Double-A level last season. Paddack will enter this one sporting a 2.84 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 4.03 xFIP on the season to go along with a healthy 9.38 K/9 and 1.99 BB/9 rates. Furthermore, Paddack sports a 2.36 ERA, 2.85 FIP and 3.22 xFIP on the season at home where he also owns an increased 10.93 K.9i clip, a much lower 1.07 BB/9 rate and an improved 1.07 HR/9 rate compared to his 1.70 mark on the road. Finally, Paddack takes on an Orioles team that enters this one ranked 25th with a .303 wOBA on the season versus right-handed pitching and of course we get him in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park in San Diego for this start. Some serious value to be had here.
C/1B – Howie Kendrick (WAS) – $2,300 vs. ATL
After filling in my four-man main stack, I had to go with some cost-efficient bats to fill out my lineup and once again I have found a pair of mini-stack that, according to the numbers, have some serious value upside in their respective matchups. That begins here with Kendrick as he and the Nationals take on left-hander Dallas Keuchel and the Atlanta Braves in a wildly pivotal NL East matchup. Keuchel enters this one sporting a 3.50 ERA on the season, but also a 4.85 FIP and a 1.44 HR/9 rate, so we certainly have something to work with here. Enter Kendricks who has absolutely clobbered left-handed pitching this season as he sports a .341 average, .220 ISO, .940 OPS and a huge 142 wRC+ against southpaws on the season. Furthermore, he’s hit them for an improved .349 average, .279 ISO, 1.019 OPS and a 161 wRC+ at home on the season . Kendrick is also hitting righties for a .224 ISO, 1.014 OPS and 163 wRC+ at home this season, so he is very much matchup-proof for when that Braves bullpen takes over for Keuchel. Finally, Kendrick has gone 9 for 24 (.375) with a homer and a double in his career against Keuchel. According to these big-time numbers, we are getting some serious value upside with Kendrick at a tiny price tonight.
2B – Brian Dozier (WAS) – $2,400 vs. ATL
We will complete our Nationals mini-stack here in short order as Dozier takes on Keuchel sporting some monster numbers against southpaw pitching this season. Entering this one tonight, Dozier sports a mammoth .325 average, .277 ISO, 1.007 OPS, .414 wOBA and a big-time 156 wRC+ on the season versus left-handed pitching. The power has decreased ever so slightly at home, but I’m not about to argue with a .238 ISO, 1.011 OPS, .419 wOBA and 159 wRC+ at home against lefties, either. While the power is slightly down, the remainder of the figures are actually up at Nationals Park this season. Dozier has also seen plenty of Keuchel from his days in the American League, and the numbers are very good. Dozier has gone 7 for 5 (.467) with a homer and a double as well against the veteran left-handed pitcher, good for a .267 ISO, 1.263 OPS and massive .538 wOBA against him. Dozier also homered for the first time since July 7th in yesterday’s game against the Dodgers and added a double as well, so hopefully he can build on that performance tonight in a matchup that is quietly-fantastic for the veteran second baseman.
3B – David Fletcher (LAA) – $3,400 vs. DET
There is a game going on in Coors Field tonight in Colorado between the high-octane offenses of the Dodgers and Rockies with some huge projected run totals in that one. However, it could certainly also be argued that the Angels have the best matchup on the slate as they take on the lowly Tigers pitching staff in this one, led by starter Jordan Zimmermann. The Angels have a projected run total of 6.4 runs tonight, so there is some damage to be done against the struggling Zimmermann and the awful Tigers bullpen. Zimmermann enters this one sporting a ghastly 7.75 ERA on the season, although his 4.88 FIP and 5.35 xFIP are a little more favorable. However, he does own a astronomical 14.30 ERA over his last four starts and has allowed six or more runs in three of them, so let’s get going here. Fletcher enters this one with some pop and some stolen base upside with five homers and eight steals on the season, the eighth of which came on Saturday. He owns reverse splits and is hitting .317 with an .805 OPS, .347 wOBA and 120 wRC+ on the season versus righties while increasing those numbers to a .341 average, .871 OPS, .374 wOBA and a 138 wRC+ at home versus righties. Add in the fact he’s set to once again hit in the leadoff spot and we have ourselves some nice cross-category upside tonight.
SS – Jose Iglesias (CIN) – $2,500 vs. PIT
Shortstop and the utility spot were my final two spots remaining in this lineup after my four-man Angels stack and Nationals mini-stack, and the slate is rather light on low-cost shortstops, but I’ve found a Reds mini-stack that I really like, but I’ll need some help from the light-hitting Iglesias to really nab some value here. Iglesias doesn’t have a ton of power with a small .098 ISO on the season, but he does bring some stolen base upside despite swiping just four bases on the season in part-time duty. He did steal 15 bases last season, after all. The good news is he has hit all five of his homers and stolen all four of his bases off of right-handed pitching, which is what he will face against Pirates right-hander Jordan Lyles tonight, a pitcher with a 5.36 ERA and 1.75 HR/9 allowed on the season. Lyles also owns a 15.00 ERA over his last four starts including allowing five earned runs in just 1.2 innings his last time out, so we certainly have a targetable pitcher and hopefully Iglesias can use his speed and contact skills to give us some production tonight.
OF – Mike Trout (LAA) – $4,900 vs. DET
For the third straight lineup I have released, I am rostering the Angels outfield as the matchup is just too good to ignore against the Tigers. Let’s keep in mind the Angels rank eighth with a .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the season and we are rostering their top four bats against righties in this lineup. Furthermore, the Tigers’ bullpen ranks 26th with a 5.05 ERA on the season and 29th with a 5.21 FIP, so the Angels, for the second consecutive series, are facing one of the very worst pitching staffs in all of baseball beginning tonight. This man needs no introduction as Mike Trout remains the best all-round player in the game of baseball. Like I mentioned in my write-ups last week, the splits are better against right-handed pitching as Trout has mashed righties for an un-human .390 ISO and 1.149 OPS on the season to go along with a .456 wOBA and 194 wRC+. At home, those numbers sit at a .383 ISO, 1.149 OPS, .458 wOBA and 195 wRC+. He’s also white-hot in the second half of the season with six homers and six doubles in 13 games since the All-Star break, good for a .471 ISO 1.101 OPS, .433 wOBA and 178 wRC+ to this point in the second half of the MLB regular season.
OF – Shohei Ohtani (LAA) – $4,200 vs. DET
The last two times I have rostered Ohtani he’s given me a triple and a home run, so I will stick with the high-priced outfielder for yet another mouth-watering matchup against these Detroit Tigers. Like he did in his rookie season last year en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors, Ohtani is destroying right-handed pitching here in 2019. Entering this one tonight, Ohtani has hit righties to the tune of a .267 ISO and .914 OPS on the season to go along with a .375 wOBA and 139 wRC+. Those numbers ramp up a few notches at home as well as he has posted a .341 ISO, 1.089 OPS, .434 wOBA and 179 wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching this season. Keep in mind that with Ohtani, we also get some stolen base upside as he’s swiped eight bases on the season, seven of which have been off of a right-handed pitcher. He’s also only been caught stealing once, so his 88.9% success rate is an attractive one. There is a ton of cross-category upside here, like Fletcher and Trout before him, so let’s let him take some hacks against Zimmermann and this weak Tigers bullpen tonight.
OF – Justin Upton (LAA) – $3,600 vs. DET
Completing our four-man Angels stack is Upton who will take on one of his former teams tonight as he spent one and a half years with the Tigers before being dealt to the Angels at the 2017 trade deadline. Upton has been feeling it against right-handed pitching once again here in the 2019 season after crushing righties in the 2018 season as well, his first full year with the Angels. Upton enters this one sporting a .230 ISO and .896 OPS to go along with a .374 wOBA and 138 wRC+ against righties this season. He’s only registered 74 at-bats against them in an injury-shortened season, but we can look back as recently as last season to see that he posted a much-similar .232 ISO and .875 OPS to go along with a .373 wOBA and 141 wRC+ against righties last season. Extremely similar numbers to his figures this time around. Upton has also fared quite well in his time against his former teammate Zimmermann as he’s gone 7 for 20 (.350) with a homer and a stolen base against the veteran righty. While he has just one steal this season, Upton stolen eight bases last season and 14 in 2017. Zimmermann could be susceptible to the stolen base at times so we get even more cross-category upside with the addition of Upton into this high-upside stack tonight.
UTIL – Josh VanMeter (CIN) – $2,700 vs. PIT
Completing our Pirates mini-stack is VanMeter who is quietly putting together a productive stretch right now and is mashing right-handed pitching at the big league level after doing so in the minors prior to his promotion earlier in the year. VanMeter enters this one sporting a .250 ISO and 1.004 OPS to go along with a .420 wOBA and 160 wRC+ across 60 big league at-bats against right-handed pitching. Furthermore he hit righties for a 1.051 OPS (and lefties for a 1.209 mark) in the minors prior to his call up. He actually posted a massive .320 ISO and 1.098 OPS at Triple-A prior to his big league promotion. We also get a hair of stolen base upside with VanMeter as he stole eight bases in 49 Triple-A games this season after stealing 10 in between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Finally, VanMeter is white-hot at the plate right now as he’s gone 9 for 13 (.692) with a whopping three home runs, a double, five runs scored and four RBI over his last four games. He and Iglesias are projected to hit fifth and seventh in the lineup, respectively, so let’s see if they can team up for some low-cost, low-owned production tonight.