I took a chance on Carlos Martinez and stacked the Chicago Cubs last night. One was a risk and the other was fairly chalky. Neither worked out.
Martinez continued his struggles after returning from injury and it’s fair to wonder when he’ll get back to ace status again. The Cubs just came up remarkably short in a great park against Matt Harvey.
The logic was there, but the production didn’t follow suit and it was a bad batch of MLB DFS picks.
Friday offers up a big 14-game main slate at FanDuel, so things are about to get really stretched out. The pitcher pool is ghastly, however, as a struggling Patrick Corbin is seemingly the top option.
There are a few solid arms to consider up top, but I love the idea of punting pitcher tonight and stacking bats. If you like that daily fantasy baseball strategy, consider using this lineup or at least some of my daily fantasy baseball picks.
Either way, let’s dive into tonight’s FanDuel lineup for tourneys:
SP: Alex Wood – Los Angeles Dodgers ($7.4k)
This is not a great pitching slate. There are admittedly a slew of viable options, but there might not be a single guy that stands out as an elite/safe play. That has me looking for value and I think you can get it via Wood.
Be aware that Wood is not the same guy he was a year ago and he’s on the road against a Mets offense that does have some pop. However, Wood has nice K upside, he rarely gets lit up and New York is abysmal against southpaws.
New York not only whiffs at a 22% clip against lefties, but most of their best bats operate from the left side. That group posts an alarming 34% strikeout rate in these matchups. Wood isn’t exactly safe, but he does offer elite value and the matchup on paper is pretty great.
There are other options, but this gets me plenty of savings and I feel good about the matchup.
C/1B: Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves ($4.4k)
I feel like Freeman never dongs when I pay up for him, but hopefully tonight will be different. The good news is he’s so efficient that he can dominate without going yard and tonight he’s at home in SunTrust Park, where lefty power owns all.
Freeman is a fine elite bat to pay up for tonight, as he could go somewhat low-owned on a huge slate and he also has a great matchup in front of him.
Not only does the park help Freeman’s nasty .222 ISO against right-handed pitching, but he’ll face Alex Cobb (.265 ISO allowed to lefties), who has given up a lot of hard contact in 2018.
2B: Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins ($3.4k)
Dozier’s power against righties has been in decline this year and overall he’s just been dreadful. I’m going to trust three things here, though: this nice price, his career damage against southpaws and the fact that Mike Minor gives up loads of contact.
Dozier mashed righties (.301 ISO) last year and he still has that upside, while Minor gets rocked by right-handed hitting (.362 wOBA, .243 ISO) and gives up a 46% fly ball rate and 44% hard contact rate to that side of the plate.
I’m sure Dozier will sack my for the 100th time this year, but the matchup and price are too good to pass up.
3B: Jeimer Candelario – Detroit Tigers ($3.3k)
Nolan Arenado ($5.1k) is understandably my favorite 3B play tonight, but if there is elite value, I’m hopping on it. Candelario is just as likely to send one deep, as he’s facing a righty and provides nice power (.208 ISO) in this setting.
What is more telling is rookie hurler Shane Bieber has not had a lot of success (.536 wOBA, .333 ISO) in limited action against lefties. The Tigers are mostly right-handed so Bieber could actually make for a fine pitcher punt, but I’ll certainly be down for taking a stab at Tigers lefties tonight. Candelario heads the list.
SS: Trevor Story – Colorado Rockies ($4.4k)
I’d love to load up on Rockies, but that takes sacrificing a number of positions. Perhaps you can consider going that route later in the day when final lineups are known and some sleepers pop up.
For now, I’ll limit my Coors exposure to Story, who boasts killer splits (.348 ISO, .427 wOBA) as he takes on a weak lefty in Wei-Yin Chen.
The park and splits favor Story, while Chen has had major problems containing righty power (.384 wOBA, .233 ISO) all year. His K rate dips by an alarming 17% against that side of the plate and it’s accompanied by a 47% fly ball rate. That simply will not do in Coors Field.
OF: Kyle Schwarber – Chicago Cubs ($3.5k)
I love me some Mike Trout, George Springer and Mookie Betts, but I don’t see much of a reason to spend up at OF with so much value lying around.
One value bat is Schwarbie. He failed along with most of the other Cubbies last night, but I can go right back to the well here.
Not only is Schwarber in a great park for the long ball, but he owns a sweet .294 ISO against right-handed pitching. Luis Castillo can make bats miss, but he allows a 41% fly ball rate and a 43$ hard hit rate. That, and his .255 ISO against lefties makes him vulnerable in this spot.
Anthony Rizzo and other Cubs lefties are also in play, but I’ll limit my exposure to Schwarber in this spot.
OF: Joc Pederson – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.4k)
I don’t love picking on quality pitchers, but Zack Wheeler has shown a propensity to get slapped around a bit this year. He doesn’t give up any eye-popping stats, but he’s at his worst when facing lefties.
That brings a cheap Joc Pederson into the mix, as he costs almost nothing and offers long ball potential. Pederson also boasts nasty splits (.404 wOBA, .303 ISO) against righties this year, while he’s really blown up since a slow start earlier in the year.
He’s an easy bargain buy for me on this slate, while a small Dodgers stack (mainly lefties) isn’t a terrible idea tonight.
OF: Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers ($3.2k)
If I’m rolling the dice on Brian Dozier, I might as well give Gallo a try, too, right? Gallo can obviously rock anyone (.259 ISO vs. righties), while he’s in a solid park and will face a guy in Fernando Romero (.239 ISO) that hasn’t fared well against lefty power.
Gallo is always a roll of the dice, but things set up nicely for him tonight. He’s not a bad price and if we’re chasing home runs with pricey bats, I don’t see the harm in saving cash here with him instead.
Util: Adam Duvall – Cincinnati Reds ($3k)
Ditto for Duvall, who is forever on my radar when tasked with taking on a southpaw. He’s at home in a hitter’s paradise, while he gets to put his nasty .267 ISO versus left-handed pitching on display.
Joe Quintana is a solid arm to consider tonight, but the Reds as a whole are not an easy out when facing lefties. That, and Quintana has had some trouble against righty power (.187 ISO, 40% hard hit rate). I’m not calling for a Reds stack, but Duvall isn’t a bad price given his awesome splits.
This team is stacked. It’s still a total GPP group, seeing as a few of these bats are pretty home run dependent. Guys like Duvall and Gallo especially are not what I’d call “safe”.
That being said, Wood gives me a solid arm with a nice matchup and every bat here has killer splits and power. I love the upside of this group and don’t mind rolling it out in a GPP.
With me or against me on these MLB DFS picks? Tell me your thoughts in the comments section below.
Either way, I wish you luck in your daily fantasy baseball contests tonight!