My last stop at the MLB DFS picks column was on Friday night. Forgive me for my weekend absence, but I had a wedding obligation. I’m back in the saddle for a new week, though, and hopefully I can lead TSG readers to some wins at FanDuel.
I had some solid calls on Friday, starting with Luke Weaver working out as an awesome pitching punt. Weaver had been pretty bad for much of 2018, but he was dirt cheap and got to face a weak Padres lineup. Weaver responded with a cool 33 fantasy points.
He didn’t go crazy, but he didn’t allow a run through five frames, either. Had he lasted one more inning he’d have gotten the quality start and would have got you 40 fantasy points.
I got burned by some big bats on Friday. Rhys Hoskins (6) and Bryce Harper (6) just didn’t do enough and neither of them were cheap. Cheap bats in Jason Kipnis (6) and Kendrys Morales (9) didn’t technically burn me, but they also didn’t go crazy.
There were some great picks here, though. Charlie Blackmon (27.9), Jedd Gyorko (30.9) and Travis Shaw (31.7) all raked, while Cody Bellinger (12) was fine enough. None of that was good enough to get me to place in my single entry GPP, but hopefully you made the right pivots to cash.
Either way, I’m back at it for Monday’s eight-game main slate. Let’s see which studs and value plays can work together to create a winning roster tonight:
SP: Patrick Corbin – Arizona Diamondbacks ($10k)
Corbin is my favorite arm tonight. Teams coming out of Coors Field tend to regress at first, so the Milwaukee Brewers aren’t going to be on my radar. That has me taking a strong stand here, as this is an awesome matchup on paper for Corbin, who has displayed an elite K rate in 2018.
Milwaukee brings some nice power to the table, but the guys on their roster that mash southpaws the most also sports high K rates. Corbin will really just have to work his way around Ryan Braun (8% K rate) and limit the long balls here. There is elite strikeout upside in this spot and it’s not like you’re getting anyone else in a way better spot.
Carlos Carrasco is probably on the same level on this slate, but he’s on the road against a Tigers lineup that can be dangerous at home. Carrasco is just $200 cheaper and there’s just as much risk there, so I think I prefer Corbin at home.
You can also look at Lance McCullers Jr., Rick Porcello and Joey Lucchessi, while Tyler Anderson (vs Padres) is probably the top value play on the board.
Personally, I don’t want McCullers on the road against the Halos, while Ricky P is actually a contrarian arm to target tonight. More on that later.
Regardless, Corbin is at least in the discussion for the top arm of the slate and I don’t mind paying the extra $200 as a hopefully contrarian pivot away from Carrasco.
C/1B: Matt Olson – Oakland Athletics ($2.8k)
Olson is just too cheap to ignore in this spot. The A’s as a whole are an extreme fly ball team, too, so anytime you get them out of their pitcher park and into a potent stadium like Fenway, you have to consider pouncing.
I love this spot specifically, too. Olson crushes right-handed pitching (.236 ISO) and will be facing a guy in Rick Porcello that gives up a ton of hard contact. Porcello has been fantastic thus far in 2018, but the contact he gives up is bound to catch up with him.
Oakland feels like a sneaky stack tonight for GPPs and I want Olson as part of (at the worst) a two-man crew. I also prefer lefties in this spot, as Porcello gives up contact to both sides of the plate, but is allowing a .215 ISO to lefty bats (44% fly ball rate, 40% hard hit rate).
2B: Daniel Robertson – Tampa Bay Rays ($2.5k)
Robertson racked up the walks (3!) in his last game, but I’m calling for a dong tonight as he faces a bad arm in Eric Skoglund. He rakes versus lefties (.211 ISO), while Skoglund gives up a ton of contact and has his toughest times against righties (44% hard hit rate).
Robertson feels like an elite value dive, but if you want to spend here, you can keep the Athletics love going with Jed Lowrie.
3B: Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies ($4.6k)
The Rockies tend to regress a bit when they leave home, but they’ve been shockingly good on the road this year. I’m willing to throw caution to the wind in this spot, as they face a lefty and tend to rake against that side of the plate.
I’m not into a full Colorado stack, but I don’t mind paying up for Arenado’s gaudy splits (.408 ISO) against southpaws. Joey Lucchesi isn’t a bad intermediate play tonight, but he does give up a.194 ISO to right-handed bats and can give up some contact. Hunting for an Arenado dong here isn’t the worst idea.
If you’re looking for elite savings and a play nobody will touch, consider Christian Villanueva and his insane .596 ISO versus southpaws. He’s 0 for his last 36, but what’s more contrarian than that? That drought has to end eventually, anyways. Right?
SS: Trevor Story – Colorado Rockies ($3.9k)
I’ll keep the Rockies love going with Story, who also mashes left-handed pitching (.365 ISO) to the moon and back. This isn’t an easy matchup and Petco Park could limit the power, but I’m hoping that and the price tags actually make this Rockies two-man show a low-owned approach.
There is not a lot of tempting SS value tonight, so I’m going Story or paying up elsewhere.
OF: Matt Joyce – Oakland Athletics ($2.7k)
I’ll grab up another lefty Oakland bat. Rick Porcello allows contact to both sides of the plate, but is giving up a .215 ISO to lefties over the past year. He’s been great, but this is an extreme fly ball team in a dangerous park. A full Oakland stack is a roll of the dice, but a two or three-man stack could be good for business.
OF: J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox ($4.3k)
I do want to attack the other side of that matchup in Fenway Park with one bat, as J.D. Martinez (.421 ISO) blasts left-handed pitching as good as anyone. Sean Manaea has been really good for most of 2018, but this is a tough park and Boston as a whole is a nightmare to take on.
I doubt Manaea dominates in this spot, while his .168 ISO versus righties leaves the door open for J.D. to blast one.
OF: Steven Souza – Arizona Diamondbacks ($2.2k)
I’m going to need to save cash in a couple of spots if this lineup is going to fall into place. Souza has been bad to get his AZ career started, but he’s due for his first homer as a member of the D’Backs. It could come at home tonight against Junior Guerra, who gives up a lot of hard contact and offers up a .201+ ISO to both sides of the plate.
Souza has a nice .239 ISO against right-handed pitching, so everything adds up here to potentially make Souza an elite value pick.
UTIL: Alex Avila – Arizona Diamondbacks ($2k)
The same could be the case for Avila, who I loved rostering last year against righties (he clubs southpaws to the tune of a .190 ISO). His numbers have dropped a bit, but he’s in a good spot against Guerra. Let’s just hope he’s starting and batting in a solid spot in the order. If not, you’ll have to hunt for a bare minimum option later in the day.
Overall, I’m riding my favorite arm in Corbin and trying to fit in some stud bats that I covet. I’m not going out of my way for any specific team stacks tonight, but I do love the Athletics as a unit that could float under the radar.
Love or hate my MLB DFS picks? Let me hear it in the comments below!