I whiffed on my main pitcher on Saturday, but hopefully you listened to my James Paxton suggestion (55 fantasy points!). He was my favorite arm on the slate and I did voice that, but for last night’s MLB DFS picks lineup I rolled with Freddy Peralta to get some savings.
That didn’t work out so well, but if you made a few adjustments and crammed Pax in, you were on your way to a fun night.
The good news is I did score you some fantastic bats. Gary Sanchez double-donged, Giancarlo Stanton sent one deep, Pedro Alvarez was an elite value play (24) and Mike Trout returned elite value (28) despite not hitting one out of the park.
Rougned Odor (9) at least got on the board, while Chris Davis (0) was more lone gaffe amongst my bats last night.
Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner were scratched on a double-header day for the Cubs and Nats, so hopefully you got off of them. In fact, if you did, you could have dropped way down and opened up salary to get a better arm. Hopefully that was the case and you found a way to cash last night.
Regardless, it’s back to the grind I go as I try to build a GPP winner for Sunday’s daily fantasy baseball day slate at FanDuel:
SP: Yu Darvish – Chicago Cubs ($7.4k)
Darvish has been mostly just a name this year, but he faces a very beatable Reds offense and still has K upside when he’s dialed in. He’s a risk for sure, but he’s in play in GPPs as a high upside bargain play. He is just too cheap for the guy he once was and can still be with a favorable matchup coming his way.
Aaron Nola is my favorite expensive arm on this slate, but Darvish is drawing me in with his elite value. He brings strikeout upside to the table and he’s been better lately, pouring in two outings with 1 allowed run or less over his last three starts.
There is clear risk here, so consider a Reds hedge stack (mostly lefties) and pay up for Nola, Thor or Strasburg on all of your other MLB DFS squads today.
C/1B: Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs ($4.1k)
I love Cubs lefties today. They’re in a great park for dongs and they face a fairly average pitcher in Tyler Mahle. Mahle has some talent, but he’s in a tough spot here and gives up a ridiculous .264 ISO to left-handed bats.
Rizzo works righties as good as anyone and is going to be needed with teammate Kris Bryant not playing today. Gary Sanchez is a fine pivot for $200 less and if you want to save, I always like Matt Olson ($3.3k) against a righty.
2B: Jed Lowrie – Oakland Athletics ($4k)
If you want a cheap GPP dart, keep hunting for Rougned Odor’s first dong. He’s just $2.7k and faces a righty that gives up a lot of power to righties. Lowrie is considerably pricier, but he’s in basically the same situation and is way more reliable.
Lowrie has been hot for basically the entire season and brings a sick .270 ISO to the table when facing righties. He gets Joe Biagini, who is not a big strikeout guy and gives up contact to both sides of the plate. A 39% hard hit rate and .195 ISO allowed to lefties this year makes him a solid option to target.
I mentioned Olson before and a full Oakland stack really isn’t a terrible idea. Personally, I just want a stable 2B with upside so I’m paying for Lowrie.
3B: Matt Davidson – Chicago White Sox ($3.5k)
The White Sox are a very sneaky stack on this slate, as they face a beatable southpaw in Mike Minor. Minor isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s proven he’s better served as a relief arm. He has a nice K rate, but he gives up a good amount of contact and hasn’t been great in run prevention.
Davidson is King GPP, but he destroys left-handed pitching (.419 ISO this year!) and Minor is just getting slammed (.276 ISO, 45% fly ball rate, 40% hard hit rate) by righties. Minor has the ability to make a whiff machine like Davidson (30% K rate) turn into an utter failure, but this is a tourney squad and you need to take high upside chances.
Given how loaded 3B tends to be, Davidson should be a fairly contrarian option and he has double-dong upside in this matchup.
SS: Tim Anderson – Chicago White Sox ($2.8k)
I also like Anderson as part of a three-man White Sox stack, provided he’s batting in a solid spot in the order. I don’t love the expensive SS options on this slate, so he’s also a money saver and has been crushing southpaws (.289 ISO) so far this year.
It’s not a huge sample size, but he makes for an elite bargain buy, in theory.
OF: Kyle Schwarber – Chicago Cubs ($3.7k)
I missed out on Schwarbie’s power after he at out last night’s second game, so I’ll take a stab at him tonight. I like him for all the same reasons I’m into Rizzo and he sports an even nastier ISO (.271) against right-handed pitching.
OF: Michael Conforto – New York Mets ($2.8k)
You can look to Conforto or teammate Jay Bruce here, but I prefer Conforto’s upside and he always seems a little safer. He’s ultra cheap despite being at home in a pretty nice spot, as he prepares to face a seemingly washed up Clay Buchholz.
New York bats as a whole make for a solid GPP stack, but Conforto brings a sweet .256 ISO versus righties to the table. Buchholz gets lit up from either sides of the plate, but Conforto is a legit masher who feels way too cheap today.
OF: Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers ($3.3k)
I am very close to being done with chasing a Gallo homer, but it has to come eventually and he’s another long ball artist who remains a very nice price. He’s again in a great spot, as he’s in a solid park for offense and faces a guy in Reynaldo Lopez that offers up a .247 ISO to left-handed hitting.
Lopez has been better this year as a whole, but he’s still a fly ball guy (52%!) and the power allowance (.273 ISO) is even worse this season. Gallo and his sick .325 ISO against righies is firmly in play and a full Rangers stack isn’t out of the question at all.
Util: Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox ($3.4k)
I’ll wrap things up with Abreu, who completes my White Sox stack with his nasty .255 ISO against southpaws. His power numbers are down slightly this year, but Minor is still a great matchup for him at home and his 2018 ISO (.170) certainly isn’t trash.
Overall, I’m looking for a value arm today and hoping some of these splits fire off. I like Chicago bats across the board, while Conforto and Gallo give me cheap power bats in ideal spots.
The only thing I’d really consider changing is dropping from Lowrie to Odor if you think Rougned can take advantage of a nice matchup. That’d get you an even better bat to wrap this team up.
Love or hate my daily fantasy baseball picks? Let me hear it in the comments below!