gravatar

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – May 22nd

I saw that the Yankees/Rangers game had a really high temperature, so I personally pivoted off of Mashiro Tanaka late and didn’t have time to warn TSG readers. Tanaka did provide value on the surface and lasted five innings with the win, but he just didn’t miss that many bats and coughed up four runs.

He was a failure with 18 fantasy points and Jose Berrios ended up being the better play at just $300 more. I’ll admit the gaffe, but hopefully you were smart enough to not trust Tanaka and your pitcher worked out.

In the hitting department, I had some nice plays with Jake Lamb donging at Miller Park and Manny Machado sending one into the stands in Chicago

Jonathan Schoop (3), Kurt Suzuki (3), Christian Villanueva (3) and Trey Mancini (3) all got on the scoreboard, but as you can see they weren’t much help. Dexter Fowler was in a great spot, but was ultimately scratched. I mentioned Marcell Ozuna, who was in the same spot and the same exact price and he did well (18 fantasy points).

It was not a great team overall, but hopefully you used Lamb and Machado and found a way off of Tanaka.

You’re going to have nights like this when you play tournaments at FanDuel, so you need to embrace the good along with the bad. Taking risks like Tanaka and high upside power bats that lack efficiency or consistency is part of the GPP scene.

Let’s do it all again as Tuesday offers up a crazy 15-game schedule with every single MLB team hitting the diamonds. Be sure to pick your spots carefully and mind any bad weather or late scratches. That being said, here’s a look at my favorite MLB DFS picks for FanDuel GPPs tonight:

SP: Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox ($11.5k)

I’m not getting cute at pitcher tonight. If the Tampa Bay freaking Rays dong Sale into oblivion tonight, so be it.

The reality is this is a fully loaded slate and it’s surprisingly lacking for high quality pitching. If I’m not going Sale, I’ll turn to Caleb Smith (faces a depleted Mets lineup that doesn’t hit lefties all that well) or Jeremy Hellickson (#Padres).

That saves me money, but it also gives me indigestion.

I’d rather just pay up for a stud ace and hope my value bats can deliver. Sale gets a positive park shift out of Fenway, has a cool 2.48 road ERA and he faces a punchless Rays offense that he blanked with 9 strikeouts earlier this year.

Tampa Bay actually does have some pop, but they also collectively whiff at a 23% rate against left-handed pitching and all of their power bats are maddeningly inconsistent.

If you want to create a small hedge stack, consider Wilson Ramos, Daniel Robertson and C.J. Cron. Just know that lineup is probably going up in flames, along with your cash.

Sale is my guy tonight, but again, if you want to save, consider Hellboy or Caleb Smith. Hellboy is at home against the sad sack Padres and Smith is a K fiend against a Mets team that has been quite erratic in 2018.

C/1B: Evan Gattis – Houston Astros ($2.5k)

I always love the idea of cheap Astros. People often fall in love with their star players (and that’s fine), but they’re so pricey and if they get hot, their teammates also tend to fare pretty well. Insert Gattis, who is dirt cheap considering he mashes lefties (.218 ISO) and gets a pretty beatable one in Andrew Suarez.

Suarez gets a steep park downgrade tonight and offers up an absurd .292 ISO versus right-handed hitting. If Gattis doesn’t dong, some righty from the Astros will. He’s a great cheap play and a full Houston stack is obviously a fine try on this wide open slate.

2B: Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins ($3.7k)

Dozier has been pretty bad for a while now, but everyone goes through ups and downs in MLB. You really just need to trust the talent and play the percentages at times. The good news is Dozier mashes the heck out of southpaws (.274 ISO) and faces Matthew Boyd, who is far from elite.

Boyd can make people miss at times, but he has a weak 4.18 road ERA and has been destroyed by Dozier (13-30, 3 HR) in the past.

I’m not just relying on BvsP data here. That’s the cherry on top, but Dozier mashes lefties and Boyd gives up a .177 ISO to right-handers. On the road in a tough park, I think he gets slammed a bit here and Dozier could be a big reason why.

3B: Jake Lamb – Arizona Diamondbacks ($2.9k)

Ol’ lambchop worked out swimmingly last night and he’s again in the ever hittable Miller Park against a pedestrian arm in Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has somehow kept his head above water at home this year (2.04 ERA), but he still gives up a good amount of contact and historically struggles against the left side of the plate.

I’m not into a full AZ stack here, but Lamb is actually cheaper than he was last night and is facing a lower caliber of pitcher on Tuesday. His .255 ISO should be quite helpful on a slate where we need all the elite value we can get our hands on.

SS: Max Moroff – Pittsburgh Pirates

A small Pirates stack could be in play, as they travel to the explosive Great American Ballpark to face Matt Harvey. The Dark Knight has been better than expected since joining the Reds, but that’s not saying much. He still gives up a ton of contact and that could spell disaster against a pretty efficient lineup in this park.

Pittsburgh as a whole just does not whiff that much (17% vs. righties) and they get a massive park upgrade.

You can argue any of their cheap bats into my lineup tonight, but I’m looking at Moroff, who gives me a really cheap bat at SS. The best SS options are just way too pricey, so I’m punting with a talented bat in a terrific spot.

Moroff isn’t even a lock to start and he’s not the most efficient bat, but he brings some power to the table and saves me cash. The big draw is he’s a switch hitter, so he can take advantage of Harvey’s struggles from the left side of the plate (.289 ISO allowed). He’s risky, but he could be a fun GPP try given the pitcher and ballpark at hand.

OF: Tyler O’Neill – St. Louis Cardinals ($2.5k)

You can also opt for Cards teammate Marcell Ozuna here at the same price or try guys like Juan Soto, Nick Williams or Carlos Gonzalez.

Personally, I’m just going to ride out O’Neill’s blazing hot start. He’s been shredding so far and sports a disturbing .460 ISO against right-handed pitching. With a homer in three straight games, I’m just going to roll with him and see if he can stay hot.

He’ll be at home against Jason Hammel, who sports an awful 7.62 road ERA in 2018 and is a contact pitcher who gives up fly balls to both sides of the plate. Lefties are the preferred way to abuse him, but O’Neill is so hot I don’t mind taking a shot on him at his low price tag.

OF: Domingo Santana – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.3k)

Santana finally started donging again a couple of weeks ago and he’s now shaping up as an elite value at home against a pedestrian arm in Matt Koch. The power is only just now arriving this year, but Santana was a fiend in 2017 (.202 ISO) against righties and Koch has gotten slapped around (.329 ISO) from that side of the plate.

Milwaukee as a whole makes for a fun, low-owned stack in this spot and this game in general could produce some fireworks. I don’t mind the cheap exposure, as I already nabbed Lamb and Santana with a favorable matchup at this absurdly low price may be too good to pass up.

OF: Giancarlo Stanton – New York Yankees ($5.1k)

There are plenty of pricey mashers I’d love to pay up for, but I really need to pick my spots given the fact that I’m spending a lot of my money on an elite arm. Stanton is probably my favorite overall bat, as he destroys southpaws (.479 ISO!) and that’s somehow only gotten better in 2018 (.625!!!!!). RIP, Cole Hamels.

But seriously, Stanton and all of the Yanks are in a great park for offense and Hamels is more name than an elite arm these days. Contact is his main issue, as Hamels can still make bats miss, but he offers up a .178 ISO to righties, along with a 40% hard hit rate. If Stanton can just make contact, he could deliver a double-dong evening.

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are also in play in this spot, but Stanton is my masher of choice on this jam-packed slate.

Util: Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles ($2.2k)

It was the right-handed O’s that I liked last night, but tonight I’ll take a look at both sides of the plate. That has me loving Crush, who is about as erratic as it gets, but he’s forever the ultimate tourney masher.

Davis alone is never a very safe play, but he’s in a fine park for hitting and will take on James Shields, who is no stranger to contact. Shields has somehow kept it together for much of 2018, but he’s also been blown up a few times.

Tonight could be another spot to attack Shields, who has given up a .211 ISO and .345 wOBA to the left side of the plate (not to mention a 40% fly ball rate) over the last two seasons. Davis could easily disappoint, but he wrecks righties (.194 ISO) and costs almost nothing.

If there is a superior option at this price or lower, certainly consider it. I just think Shields is due to get bombed and Davis has the ability to tee off in this spot. I don’t love to rely on BvsP data, but I also can’t ignore the fact that Crush has posted a sick 5-16 line with 3 dongs in this matchup.

Overall, it all starts with Chris Sale for me. He’s the top pitcher on the board, gets a positive park shift and faces an offense he has dominated and should destroy again.

You’re going to need to take your lumps in terms of finding the right value bats, but I think this team shows it can be done. Whether you roll with these exact MLB DFS picks or not, of course, is up to you. Either way, I wish you luck in your daily fantasy baseball FanDuel contests tonight!

PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.