Ross Stripling was amazing (60 fantasy points) and exceeded expectations, but our bats didn’t really come through on Friday.
A few guys worked out well enough, but Justin Smoak provided me with my lone dong of the night. Giancarlo Stanton and Kurt Suzki also both did absolutely nothing, which wasn’t very helpful.
Hopefully you trusted me and rolled with Stripling and then made enough pivots off of my bats to finish in the green.
Saturday offers some early games to help pick up the pieces, but my main focus is on the six-game main slate that starts at 7:00 ET. Let’s dive into my favorite MLB DFS picks at FanDuel for tonight’s MLB action:
SP: Alex Wood – Los Angeles Dodgers ($8.7k)
Wood has not been the elite stud he was for much of 2017, but he’s still plenty good and he’s at home against the hapless Padres. Ross Stripling isn’t as talented as Wood and he just careered against them last night, so this is an easy call for me.
While Wood’s performance hasn’t been of the charts in 2018, he’s still been solid, posting 34+ fantasy points in three of his last four starts. He’s given up just five total runs during that stretch and also took care of business (37 fantasy points) when he faced San Diego earlier this year.
The upside isn’t exactly what we want, but Lance McCullers Jr. and Carlos Carrasco are potentially cancelling each other out (Astros vs. Indians) and I don’t want to pay to get smoked. Wood has the best matchup on the slate, so I’m spending a bit here in hopes that his talent shines through and the matchup makes him the best play on the board.
You can also look to Jose Quintana or drop down to Sonny Gray, but I won’t be going those routes.
C/1B: Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants ($2.7k)
I mentioned Quintana, who is a very talented pitcher but has been extremely erratic with the Cubs. He can either dominate or he can get wrecked. In a sometimes volatile setting like Wrigley Field, I find it hard to trust him.
Stacking against Quintana isn’t the wisest move, but he does give up some contact to right-handed bats (34% fly ball rate, 35% hard hit rate), including a dangerous .178 ISO. I think the top Giants righties are at least on the radar.
When you think of that, Posey’s dirt cheap price and his ability to mash southpaws (.208 ISO), using him feels like an easy call.
2B: Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins ($3.9k)
I don’t normally feel amazing about using Twins, but Dozier can destroy left-handed pitching (.272 ISO) and Wade LeBlanc is not an elite pitcher. Dozier is part of a Twins two-man stack that wrecks lefties and could serve as amazing late-game hammers tonight.
3B: Miguel Sano – Minnesota Twins ($3.4k)
Sano will be playing in just his second game since April 27th, but he has an amazing matchup with a pedestrian southpaw. Sano was a failure in his return last night, but he’s not facing James Paxton this time around. He feels like an elite value and is a terrific pivot off of a slew of pricey 3B options.
Sano’s nasty .289 ISO versus left-handed hitting is very much in play here. If you feel like spending, roll with Eugenio Suarez, who demolishes southpaws as well and will be playing at Coors Field. The only difference is he’s $1k pricier.
SS: Carlos Correa – Houston Astros ($3.8k)
I’m not about to fully stack Astros against a very good arm in Carrasco, but he actually historically has issues at his home park. Correa hasn’t been himself this year, but he’s still an elite talent that brings nice power to the table. I don’t mind snatching up him and his .236 ISO in the hopes he’s uber contrarian on this slate.
OF: Andrew McCutchen – San Francisco Giants ($2.7k)
I trust Posey far more than Cutch, but he’s still a talented hitter who brings some power to the table. Anytime he’s facing a lefty you at least need to give him a cursory glance (.313 ISO) and tonight I’m just going to dive in head first.
McCutchen hasn’t been good lately or on the year, but this is a perfect matchup for him and he helps me save some cash for other bats I want.
OF: Adam Duvall – Cincinnati Reds ($3.1k)
Duvall is a pretty fine GPP flier anytime he’s facing a lefty (.305 ISO), but tonight’s he’s in Coors. He’s too cheap given the matchup and ballpark factor.
OF: Nelson Cruz – Seattle Mariners ($3.1k)
Nellie is usually preferred against southpaws and he’s been cooling down lately, but he’s still an elite masher. Jake Odorizzi is certainly not an arm to fear and it’s not like Cruz (.260 ISO vs. righties) can’t take advantage of this matchup.
I’m all about value on this slate and Cruz feels like a steal at this price.
Util: Kyle Schwarber – Chicago Cubs ($3.6k)
A full Cubs stack is always in play, but I prefer to attack Chris Stratton from the left side, where he sees a 7% dip in his K rate and also coughs up a .168 ISO. Stratton is a pitcher who can eat innings at times, but he does give up a good amount of contact and that could be dangerous in Chicago against this Cubs squad.
I don’t want a full stack, but Schwarber is a nice price and brings a lot of power (.271 ISO) against righties.
I am vouching for one Coors bat here, but I don’t really need to tell you that playing the Rockies and Reds tonight could end well. They simply don’t make it into this lineup much, as my top arm isn’t exactly cheap and I like a lot of other value bats as elite pivots.
Guys like Schwarber, Dozier, Sano and Cruz are way cheaper than Coors options and honestly could offer just as much upside.
It all starts with Alex Wood for me. He has an elite matchup and if he can crush it, then I could be in a great spot. Here’s to hoping Coors stays relatively quiet outside of a Duvall homer, too.