The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers both took care of business on Monday, setting up the majority of the ALCS and NLCS. There is still work to be done, however, as the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees broke a 1-1 tie on Monday and still need to figure out who will move on to battle for a trip to the 2018 World Series.
Most expect that to be the Red Sox, but the Yanks will have some say about that at home tonight in game four. This is the only game on the schedule for MLB DFS purposes, so I’ll keep it short and sweet; Boston has the slight pitching edge and the splits favor the Red Sox as well. They’re also a win from the ALCS, so they have the narrative working in their favor.
I’m stacking the Red Sox here, but as usual, I don’t mind piecing together a few teams and mixing and matching. It’s just one game, though, and a repeat of what we saw last night (toned down, of course) could be in play:
MVP (x1.5 points): Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox ($9k)
Betts is always a good play and I like him in the MVP slot tonight. He could be popular, but maybe his steep price will drive ownership down a bit. Either way, he’s red hot with 12+ fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games. He also mashes southpaws (.494 wOBA, .367 ISO) and has a solid history (12 for 28, .429 BA) against C.C. Sabathia.
Even if Betts doesn’t launch here, I can see him piling up the walks, hits and runs in a Boston win to advance.
IF: Gary Sanchez – New York Yankees ($5.5k)
I can’t just roll out all Red Sox here, so I’ll tack on some cheap Yanks power via Sanchez. I prefer to roster Gary against left-handed pitchers, but he’s so cheap given his power upside and it’s not like his splits (.190 ISO versus righties) are trash. His history against Rick Porcello isn’t great, but he’s too cheap to ignore tonight.
OF: J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox ($8.5k)
I also want Martinez, who has donged twice in his last four games and like Mookie, wrecks versus southpaws. His numbers against lefties are down for 2018 specifically, but he still owns a sweet .261 ISO and has even better numbers historically.
Util: Steve Pearce – Boston Red Sox ($6.5k)
I’ll cap my Boston love with Pearce, who mashes lefties (.252 ISO) as well as anyone and could launch one tonight. He’s had quite a bit of success (3 HR) against Sabathia and his gaudy splits speak for themselves. He’s a really nice price given his splits and production in this matchup, so feel free to target him even if you’re more on Yankees sticks tonight.
Util: Brett Gardner – New York Yankees ($5k)
Gardner gets me another cheap Yankees stick for what figures to be an explosive game at Yankee Stadium. I could also pivot to Brock Holt or another cheap Red Sox bat, depending on who ends up starting. I’m fine with Gardner for now, as he should be active against a righty and happens to have some positive BvsP history (.286 BA, 2 HR) in his career against Porcello.
I don’t rely solely on BvsP ever, but it’s worth pointing out in the playoffs when you’re not afforded a whole lot else to work with. Gardner is at his best against righties and this is a huge elimination game. He’s also dirt cheap, so hopefully the veteran can step up and get some hits, runs and maybe even steal a base. If he dongs, well, that’d just be gravy.
I’m not necessarily just stacking Boston bats here, but I do think they give me the most upside. They have the superior matchup, strong BvsP data, great splits and they also have the momentum with a 2-1 series lead. I think Boston wins tonight and it’s likely going to be their offense again that pushes them into the next round of the playoffs.
Pivot where you feel you need to, but the Red Sox are the team to stack in this game. If Sanchez and Gardner can chip in a little production, I could have a competitive team here for GPPs at FanDuel.
Whether you use this lineup as it stands or just roll with a couple of my MLB DFS picks, I wish you luck tonight. Enjoy the games!