Not a lot went our way with last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks despite the teams from our stacks combining to score 12 runs on the night.
Our pitcher, Mitch Keller, didn’t exactly get things started on the right note as he allowed five earned runs across five innings of work. While he continued to pile up the strikeouts with seven across those five innings, a three-run first inning put him in a hole that he could not get out from.
Our four-man Braves stack did some damage, led by Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman who combined for six hits, albeit all coming in single for, which isn’t great. Our stack scored two runs, added two RBI, but Acuna Jr. was also caught attempting to steal. I wanted more here.
Our four-man Dodgers stack resulted in a three-man stack with Justin Turner scratch, but the stack wasn’t productive regardless as Corey Seager did the bulk of the heavy lifting with a pair of home runs. Cody Bellinger singled, scored a run and knocked in a run while David Freese singled twice and scored a run as well to stay hot. Nonetheless, we needed more here as well.
It wasn’t a great night with home high ceilings, so let’s turn our attention to another 14-game slate here on Wednesday and see if we can get things turned around!
P – Pablo Lopez (MIA) – $7,100 vs. MIL
The Brewers and Marlins get together tonight from Miami and the Brewers are entering this one on a low. Sure, they won last night’s game to pull closer to the rival Cubs in the NL Wild Card race, however their lineup took a massive blow as Christian Yelich fractured his kneecap on a foul ball and will miss the remainder of the season. That is devastating news for what is still a good Brewers offense, but there’s little doubt the offense is not as good without Yelich and I am liking Lopez even more tonight as a result. Aside from the Yelich situation, there’s still plenty to like about the Marlins’ right-hander in this one. First, Lopez’s home/road splits are quite wide and favor the home side dramatically. On the road, Lopez has been tagged for a sky-high 7.71 ERA and 6.27 FIP with a 7.71 K/9 clip as well. However, at home, Lopez has been absolutely lights out to the tune of a 2.68 ERA and an even better 2.41 FIP to go along with an increased 8.55 K/9 clip. While the Brewers have plenty if power at their disposal, we need to note that their 25% strikeout clip versus right-handers this season is the eighth-highest mark in baseball. Add it all up and I am digging Lopez at this price tonight.
C/1B – Jose Abreu (CWS) – $3,700 vs. KC
There’s some attractive offenses on this slate, even outside of Coors Field, and the White Sox are my co-favorite tonight as they take on right-hander Glenn Sparkman and the rival Kansas City Royals. Sparkman has not been good this season, or of late, and he’s also been absolutely demolished on the road this season. Overall, the 27-year-old right-hander owns a 5.97 ERA, 6.06 FIP and 5.82 xFIP. Sparkman posted a 7.53 ERA in the month of July, a 7.58 mark in the month of August and so far has a 9.00 ERA in September thanks to allowing four runs in four innings his last time out. Finally, Sparkman has been crushed to the tune of a 8.94 ERA, 7.55 FIP and 6.57 xFIP on the road this season where he’s also allowed a huge 2.91 HR/9 on the season. As a result, I want some White Sox bats beginning here with Abreu whose bat is more productive versus lefties, but still fits in this stack thanks to his power against righties. Abreu enters this one sporting a .221 ISO on the season against right-handed pitching, a number that jumps to .259 at home versus righties while he also sports an .835 ISO, .335 wOBA and 111 wRC+ against opposite-handed pitching on the season. We’ve seen better numbers in our stacks, but the guy has hit 23 home runs and 23 doubles off of righties this season and I’ll look for that power to continue into this one.
2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) – $4,300 vs. OAK
The Astros and A’s have traded blows in terms of pummeling each others pitching this series and the Astros could very well continue such a trend in this one tonight against left-hander Brett Anderson. I had plenty of money to work with in this lineup tonight and when I had the second base position left to fill after rostering my stacks I simply went to the highest-priced bat in Altuve. The speed portion of his power/speed combo is lacking some at the moment as he has swiped just five bases on the season while dealing with injuries, however the power is very real with 26 home runs and a .247 ISO on the season. His numbers against left-hander, however, are simply out of this universe. On the season, Altuve has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .386 average, .376 ISO, 1.205 OPS, .485 wOBA and a massive 214 wRC+L. Those are some of the best numbers we have seen against any split this season. Like most of his teammates, Altuve is raking in the month of September so far with a .219 ISO, .963 OPS, .401 wOBA and 157 wRC+, good for his second-best month of the season. He hasn’t enjoyed a ton of success against Anderson in the past he’s just 3 for 13 against him with a double, but given his numbers against lefties this season that could very well change tonight.
3B – Yoan Moncada (CWS) – $3,200 vs. KC
Next man up in our four-man White Sox stack is Moncada who delivers some massive power against right-handed pitching, the most of the White Sox team to be precise. With Moncada, we also get some stolen base upside as well, giving us an appetizing power/speed combo that looks even better after we see his career numbers against Sparkman. Mondada enters this one tonight sporting a .254 ISO, .950 OPS, .392 wOBA and 149 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching, number that crush his figures against lefties as he is a switch-hitter. The numbers get even better at home against righties where Moncada has put together a .312 ISO, 1.007 OPS, .411 wOBA and 162 wRC+. Furthermore, Moncada is mashing so far in the month of September as he owns a .212 ISO, .1.136 OPS, .469 wOBA and 201 wRC+ for the month to this point. In layman’s terms, the former top prospects has recorded a multi-hit game in five of his last six and has three doubles, a homer, seven runs, three RBI and a stolen base over his last five games. In his career against Sparkman, he has gone 4 for 9 (.444) with a home run. As a result, there’s no reason to be fading the power-hitting infielder in this matchup tonight.
SS – Tim Anderson (CWS) – $3,200 vs. KC
There is a shortstop for our next stack that fits right in this lineup tonight, but it’s real tough to leave Anderson out of any White Sox stack considering his work against right-handed pitching this season, his power/speed potential, his numbers against Sparkman and the fact that he is projected to hit in the two-hole tonight, essentially leading off our stack as a result. Anderson enters this one tonight sporting a .324 average, .188 ISO, .879 OPS, .368 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching, all of which are superior to the same numbers against lefties. Like Moncada, Anderson has been red-hot for the month of September so far with a .306 ISO, 1.116 OPS, .458 wOBA and 194 wRC+. He’s notched a multi-hit effort in seven of his last nine games and has six doubles, two homers, 10 runs scored and five RBI in that span. Anderson has clubbed 16 home runs on the season and swiped 16 bases as well. In a small career sample against Sparkman, Anderson has gone 2 for 6, albeit without an extra-base hit. At the end of the day, Anderson has the big-game ability in this matchup and there’s little reason to leave him behind considering his spot in the aforementioned two-hole tonight.
OF – Eloy Jimenez (CWS) – $2,900 vs. KC
Completing our four-man White Sox stack is Jimenez who may not be hitting for a high average in his first season in the big leagues, but he’s brought plenty of power to the dish with 25 home runs on the season to go along with a .224 ISO. The good news for this matchup tongiht is that Jimenez sports some reverse-splits in his rookie season, meaning the right-handed swinging outfielder sports superior numbers against right-handed pitchers. Against righties this season, the 22-year-old has posted a .238 ISO, .789 OPS, .326 wOBA and a 105 wRC+, all of which are superior to his figures versus lefties. They aren’t the best numbers in the world, but they are above league average and many are being dragged down by a tiny 4.9% walk rate against righties, not uncommon for a rookie. More good news is on the way, however, as Jimenez joins Moncada and Anderson in having a big month of September to this point and some quality numbers versus Sparkman as well. Jimenez has posted a big-time .342 ISO, .905 OPS, .368 wOBA and 133 wRC+ for the month to this point. He hit a grand slam in last night’s series opener and now has three homers and four doubles over his last seven games. Finally, he has gone 2 for 4 with a home run in his brief history against Sparkman. Sign me up all day at this price.
OF – Tommy Pham (TB) – $3,700 vs. TEX
I will be completing my lineup with a three-man Rays stack, beginning here with Pham who is set to technically lead this stack off as he’s set to hit in the two-hole for this one tonight. Pham has once again been an on-base machine this season and he brings a tasty power/speed combination to the table as well with 2o home runs and 20 steals on the season. Pham’s bat is more productive against lefties, but he should fare just fine tonight against the right-handed starter, Ariel Jurado. Jurado owns a 5.74 ERA at home this season and a 6.21 ERA in 91.1 innings as a starter, so there’s plenty to work with already versus the righty. Pham has posted a .198 ISO, .791 OPS, .334 wOBA and a 111 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching. He only has posted a .111 ISO in September, but he’s still been wildly productive with a huge .985 OPS, .423 wOBA and 172 wRC+, which would represent his best month of the season. Pham will take an eight-game hit streak into action tonight with four multi-hit efforts in that time to go along with three doubles, a homer and four stolen bases. The cross-category upside is quite real with the productive outfielder in this one.
OF – Austin Meadows (TB) – $3,800 vs. TEX
Next man up in the Rays stack is Meadows who is Tampa Bay’s most productive hitter against right-handed pitching. The former Pirates top prospects has enjoyed a massive season with the Rays in what is his first full MLB campaign. The young outfielder has hit 29 home runs this season and he too brings some solid stolen base upside to the table with 10 swipes on the season. He’s done some serious damage against right-handed pitching as this season as he will carry a .302 average, .974 OPS, .398 wOBA and a 155 wRC+ into action tonight against righties such as Jurado. Meadows plays his home games at the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, but on the road he has absolutely unloaded against right-handed pitching to the tune of a .342 ISO, 1.065 OPS, .433 wOBA and 178 wRC+ – by far his best numbers against any splits this season. Of course, his stolen base upside plays up against righties with nine of his 10 steals on the season coming at the expense of a right-hander. Meadows has been the best bat the Rays have had to offer this season and I’ll look for that to continue in a dynamite road matchup this evening.
UTIL – Ji-Man Choi (TB) – $2,900 vs. TEX
Completing our lineup and Rays stack is Choi who has made his big-league money mashing right-handed pitchers throughout his career. That has certainly been the case this season as Choi has raked right-handed pitching to the tune of a .181 ISO, .811 OPS, .344 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. The good news is that Choi’s road numbers follow suit with that of his teammate Meadows as he has smashed right-handers for a .190 ISO, .839 OPS, .356 wOBA and a 126 wRC+ on the season. Again, this is nothing new for the lefty-swinging Choi has he owns a career .209 ISO, .813 OPS, .345 wOBA and 119 wRC+ versus righties. Choi hasn’t been as productive as his teammates Pham and Meadows in the month of September, but I am encouraged by the fact that he does his best work on the road against righties which is where he will be tonight in the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington. With Jurado allowing 16 earned runs over his last 16 innings at home, I think Choi could deliver plenty of value as the anchor of this three-man Rays stack tonight.