Last night was another solid try with my MLB DFS picks. A few of the top arms disappointed, so punting with Josh James (27 fantasy points) really wasn’t a bad idea. James didn’t get as many strikeouts as I was looking for an he couldn’t make it to six innings and land you that quality start, but he could have easily been a lot worse.
James still opened things up for some nice bats. Even though they didn’t all deliver, I had some success with Oakland and Colorado both going nuts. Trevor Story really burned me (3) while the Rockies scored 10 runs. That figures.
It wasn’t my best team, but there were some solid MLB DFS picks there. Hopefully you made some good pivot calls and found a way to cash.
Tonight baseball quiets down slightly for a 12-game main slate at FanDuel. There are just a few days left in the regular season, so I might consider going a little harder than usual to maximize my DFS upside.
You can use my full lineup or pick and choose from my favorite daily fantasy baseball picks for tonight’s MLB action. Let’s dive in:
SP: Ross Stripling – Los Angeles Dodgers ($6.3k)
Jacob deGrom headlines the top pitchers on this slate and if you don’t want to pay for him you can pivot to Masahiro Tanaka, Chris Sale and a few other options. Tanaka is probably my favorite option up top, as he heads to a pitcher’s park in Tampa and battles the Rays. You probably can’t use Sale, who hasn’t been lasting long into games. If you do, do so are your own risk.
I don’t want to spend at pitcher tonight, either way.
I think there is elite value elsewhere and my favorite play is Stripling. He’s struggled to regain his earlier season form, but his numbers have been great all year and the Dodgers need him to pitch well. I tend to think he’ll get it going in this one and the risk is baked into his dirt cheap price tag.
Stripling could struggle, but he’s been so good on the year and is priced like a spare. I think he can get you 40 fantasy points tonight and really open things up for some fun bats.
C/1B: Matt Olson – Oakland Athletics ($3.8k)
There are a lot of elite offenses to look at on this slate, as Cleveland, Boston, New York and Milwaukee are all in play, while there is also a game at Coors Field.
I love the Rockies tonight, but I’m fading that game completely to hopefully gain an edge in GPPs. I honestly prefer the Athletics anyways, as they face a hard contact arm in Felix Hernandez.
Hernandez is best targeted with lefties (.367 wOBA, .266 ISO, 38% fly ball rate, 40% hard hit rate), which absolutely makes Olson (.249 ISO) one of the better plays on the board.
2B: Jed Lowrie – Oakland Athletics ($3.6k)
I’m digging Lowrie again for the same reasons tonight, as the A’s have a great matchup against a hard contact righty. Lowrie and his solid .207 ISO should pay off in this one.
3B: Matt Chapman – Oakland Athletics ($3.9k)
If you’re looking for A’s one-off sticks I’d stay on the left side of the plate, but I actually love an Oakland stack. The park factor is not ideal and the Athletics aren’t cheap, so there is a very good chance this stack is pretty contrarian. The other elite offenses on the table also help with that.
King Felix is a lot better against righties, but he still gives up too much contact and he could easily get chased from this one. Chapman mashes right-handed pitching (.386 wOBA, .266 ISO) and is a great option to keep this Oakland stack going.
SS: Paul DeJong – St. Louis Cardinals ($3.5k)
There are several pricey SS options to consider tonight, but I don’t see the need to splurge there when DeJong and his gaudy splits versus righties (.340 wOBA, .207 ISO) are ripe for the plucking. He comes in pretty hot with a hit in 8 of his last 9 contests and the Cardinals need his offense.
I won’t be shocked to see him dong versus Jhoulys Chacin, who isn’t quite himself on the road and gives up a 35% fly ball rate against righties.
OF: Khris Davis – Oakland Athletics ($4.1k)
Khrush was a late scratch last night, so I figure he’ll be back at it against King Felix. He offers a monstrous .316 ISO in the face of right-handed pitching, so he’s obviously going to make my A’s stack if he’s active this time around.
OF: Daniel Palka – Chicago White Sox ($2.8k)
Shane Bieber is a pretty talented young pitcher and by all accounts he’s got a favorable matchup in Chicago tonight versus the White Sox. While true, he is on the road in a hitter’s park and his problems against lefties (.393 wOBA, .238 ISO, 37% fly ball rate, 47% hard hit rate) are pretty pronounced.
He’s lucky the White Sox don’t have many viable lefties to throw at him, but they do have Palka. He’s cheap enough that I don’t mind taking on some risk and he also happens to sport a nasty .288 ISO against right-handed hurlers. Yeah, I’m game for Palka tonight.
OF: Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels ($5k)
I love me some Trout tonight. He’s obviously not cheap and there are several elite OF options to pivot to, and for both of those reasons I think there’s a chance he could be relatively low-owned. You’re still probably looking at 15-20% ownership in GPPs, but if I can get him at that or lower, it’s a win.
It’s only a true win if he pans out, but Trout is always a threat to go yard and offers insane splits (.433 wOBA, .255 ISO) against southpaws. His home park isn’t the best for power, but that could be yet another reason people don’t go out of their way to target this elite late-game hammer.
Consider pivoting to J.D. Martinez or Charlie Blackmon if you wish you open up a little cash for the Utility spot.
Util: Welington Castillo – Chicago White Sox ($2k)
I’m not enamored with Castillo and there’s a solid chance he doesn’t even start. As I suggested, Shane Bieber is much easier to target from the left side of the plate, too. I need someone who is the bare minimum and offers some upside, though. Beef can be that guy, as he does present a solid .170 ISO against righties and Bieber still gets hit hard (39%) from both sides of the plate.
You can pivot to a different punt play here if you wish. You honestly may have to if Castillo doesn’t start, so just keep your options open here and/or consider dropping down from Mike Trout.
When others zig, you gotta zag. There’s a lot of great pitching tonight and for me, that’s often the best possible time to punt pitcher and load up on bats. It’s not even necessarily a risk, as Stripling has shown to have the ability to dominate games. If he’s in good form, he could be a gem and open the door to a really fun night.
I’m going to need my full four-man A’s stack to pan out and hopefully the White Sox can get to Bieber a bit. Still, this is a loaded team that boasts a slew of dudes who can send the ball out of the park and rack up fantasy points in a hurry.
Best of all, this team is pretty contrarian and is the perfect lineup to toss into a GPP.
Whether you’re with me here or go in a different direction, hopefully I assisted you in some manner tonight. As always, pivot as needed, monitor the weather and make sure you sub in replacements for any late scratches. Good luck!