Yesterday was pretty crazy, as a slew of teams piled it on offensively and guys like Scooter Gennett and Marcell Ozuna double-donged. Yandy Diaz even had the game of his life, so it was never going to be easy to take down a big GPP, let alone cash in most FanDuel daily fantasy baseball contests.
I still delivered some solid MLB DFS picks, of course. Robbie Ray was always going to be a strong play against the San Diego Padres, while sticks like Niko Goodrum, Steve Pearce and Ryan Braun all worked out nicely.
It wasn’t the most amazing squad ever, but depending on what contests you played, it could have helped you win some money.
That’s the goal again tonight, as we approach FanDuel’s 12-game main slate. Here’s a look at some of my favorite MLB DFS picks and a team that could catch fire in GPPs:
SP: Framber Valdez – Houston Astros ($6.2k)
Luis Severino and Zack Wheeler are the top arms on this slate, but both will be on the road against very good offenses with a lot of power. I’m not saying you can’t use them, but I really don’t mind a one-off bat against them and I personally will be fading.
That has me looking for value at the starting pitcher spot.
I think you can find it via White Sox rookie Michael Kopech ($8k). He’s got a solid matchup at home against the Detroit Tigers and he’s looked strong so far through three MLB starts.
While I am eyeing him, I think dropping all the way down to Valdez is my preferred play.
Valdez has flashed some nice ability through three appearances this season and was an elite K-rate guy in the minors. It remains to be determined if that will translate and he has had issues with control, but he’s so cheap. He’ll also be at home in a pitcher-friendly park and faces a meh Twins offense that has been atrocious against southpaws in 2018.
The numbers back up Valdez here. He is an elite punt play on this slate and I’m not sure I’ll consider anyone else. That probably means I’m just doing one lineup/entry on what feels like a weird slate, but take that as you will.
C/1B: Brandon Belt – San Francisco Giants ($3.3k)
Belt has burned me in a lot of money spots this year, but I have to give him a shot at Coors. He owns a strong .206 ISO against right-handed pitchers and that has to get a boost in this ballpark. Antonio Senzatela has actually shown reverse splits in 2018, but I’m just going to trust in Belt’s power upside in this spot.
2B: D.J. LeMahieu – Colorado Rockies ($3.5k)
While the Giants are certainly on the table here, I prefer the Rockies in this game. I think this game could blow up thanks to at best pedestrian pitching in this explosive park, while Colorado is always worth a stack against a shaky lefty.
Andrew Suarez is not a scary arm and he’s had trouble (.355 wOBA, .194 ISO, 45% hard hit rate) against right-handed sticks. LeMahieu isn’t usually praised for his power, but he actually has two dongs over his last four games. He also carries great splits (.204 ISO, .374 wOBA) into this matchup and comes at a bargain price. Yeah, sign me up.
If you want value here, consider L.A.’s David Fletcher. The Halos are an awesome stack to consider as they face the hittable Bartolo Colon in Texas.
3B: Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies ($4.8k)
Not much needs to be said here. Arenado is always worth a shot and he’s plenty due to dong. He’s at home in a great park and brings his disturbing .399 ISO versus southpaws to the table. I can’t fade him tonight.
SS: Trevor Story – Colorado Rockies ($4.7k)
Ditto for Story, who feels like he’s about to erupt. He mashes lefties about as good, posting a sick .331 ISO on the year. Brandon Crawford ($3.3k) is a nice pivot to save some cash and stay in this park, but like I said, I love Rockies tonight. Keep it to the right side if you plan on differentiating in this stack.
OF: Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers ($3k)
Another guy who crushes southpaws is Braun, who will take on Jose Quintana at home in a hitter’s park.
Quintana is more name than anything this year, while Braun’s .255 ISO is worth rolling with. I vouched for Braun yesterday and he worked out nicely and his gaudy splits have me going right back to him tonight in another huge NL Central showdown with the rival Cubs.
OF: Joc Pederson – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.4k)
I don’t really love targeting good pitchers like Zack Wheeler, but he isn’t invincible and as I said before, he has to take it to the road against a very good Dodgers lineup. Pederson and his fun .282 ISO against right-handed pitching is part of that and he feels like a great one-off flier in this matchup.
I won’t be stacking Dodgers tonight, but Pederson is probably too cheap given his power here.
OF: Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers ($3.5k)
I’m also interested in Gallo’s other teammates tonight as they face Jaime Barria, but I’ll just take a shot at him donging here. Barria is tougher on lefties, but Gallo owns a gross .265 ISO in these spots and the park obviously doesn’t hurt him one bit.
Util: Ian Desmond – Colorado Rockies ($3.4k)
I’ll close things up with the full four-man Colorado stack. Desmond also mashes southpaws (.247 ISO), so here’s to hoping Coors erupts with Suarez dying a quick death.
Typically I don’t just roll out Rockies stacks, but they are my favorite stack on this slate and it’s not all that close. I also don’t really crave the pricey arms on this slate, so I have zero qualms about saving at pitcher and stacking elsewhere.
I have interest in some other expensive mashers, but the form hasn’t been good for some and the park or matchups isn’t ideal for others. All roads lead to the Rockies for me, while the Angels probably register as my second favorite stack of the night.
If my Astros value arm can pay off, this could be a good night.
Hopefully I help you one way or another. Whether you roll with this lineup as it stands or use just a few of my MLB DFS picks, I wish you luck. Enjoy the games!