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FanDuel MLB DFS Playoff Picks – October 16th

It’s a shame the MLB playoffs aren’t really taking center stage, seeing as the NBA has started back up and the NFL is already nearing mid-season. While it hasn’t really gotten it’s due, at least Tuesday offers a nice two-game slate with all four remaining teams in action.

Nobody can be eliminated yet, but this still could be one of the last times we get a “full” slate like this. We actually will for sure get another one on Wednesday, but I think you get my point.

Cherish it! In all seriousness, playoff MLB DFS is pretty volatile, but I like the idea of picking between four pitches and not just targeting batters from one game. Let’s dive in and see what kind of GPP lineup I come away with by chasing down some of my favorite daily fantasy baseball picks over at FanDuel:

SP: Nathan Eovaldi – Boston Red Sox ($7.4k)

I don’t think there is a right way to go at pitcher tonight. Gio Gonzalez is a cheap punt, but he is not expected to go deep in this one. The Dodgers aren’t some cakewalk matchup on the road, either.

Nobody has a good matchup tonight, but Eovaldi gets a park upgrade and has been in good form with 37+ fantasy points in three of his last four starts.

Boston will be the road dogs in this one, but I actually like them to win. You can also consider Dallas Keuchel, but it’s not better to pay more to face the Red Sox or Brewers on this slate. Eovaldi is a capable arm and he saves me some cash. That’ll do.

C/1B: Jesus Aguilar – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.8k)

I’m Team Brew Crew tonight. They’re fun, they’re kind of on fire and they face a lefty. They have a slew of powerful bats that can take advantage of this matchup, while Aguilar wrecks lefties to the tune of a .385 wOBA and a nasty .257 ISO. He might be my favorite power stick on this slate, while Hill’s hard contact woes (39% fly ball rate, 46% hard hit rate) versus righties are encouraging.

I don’t pay much attention to batter versus pitcher data, but it’s worth noting that Aguilar has taken Hill to the stands before.

2B: Jonathan Schoop – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.6k)

Starting lineups aren’t out yet, so I’ll probably look at Kike Hernandez, Brian Dozier or Schoop here. I prefer Schoop, who has displayed the ability to mash lefties in the past and obviously Hill gives up a lot of contact to the right side of the plate. Adjust as needed based on who ends up starting in these games.

3B: Justin Turner – Los Angels Dodgers ($3.9k)

I’m not excited about stacking Astros against my pitcher, so I’ll confide in Turner, who donged two games ago and hits both sides of the plate very well. He could dong Gio early or put in some solid work against Milwaukee’s righties. He’s not cheap, but the only other option I love here is Alex Bregman. He’s a fine one-off versus Eovaldi, but I’m trying not to use Astros if I can help it.

Note to self: definitely create a second GPP team with a full Astros hedge stack.

SS: Orlando Arcia – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.5k)

Arcia is not known for his power or really for his offensive ability, but he’s been clutch in the playoffs. He’s donged three times in his last four game and is too cheap (and too ablaze) to not use on this slate. He hasn’t fared very well against southpaws, but whatever.

Pivot to Hernan Perez here (.207 ISO versus lefties) if you’re scared of Arcia’s splits. I’m just going to ride the wave.

OF: Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.1k)

I’m fading Rich Hill tonight, as he’s just too expensive and the Brewers have largely been red hot offensively. He’s best attacked with righties and Braun offers a fun .267 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s also a solid price and has hit pretty well in the playoffs.

OF: Yasiel Puig – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.6k)

The Dodgers got blanked last night, but they are routinely very good at home. I don’t want to stack them on this slate, but I’ll take cheap exposure. Puig could be due for a nice outing and offers nice power upside. Gio Gonzalez won’t pitch deep into this game, so I wouldn’t read too much into splits for L.A.’s bats.

You can also consider moving things around and using someone like Chris Taylor – assuming he starts – who has better splits against both sides of the plate.

OF: Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox ($4.5k)

I like Boston bats tonight. The slate is small and they’re awesome, so I doubt that’s really a contrarian take. Regardless, Betts destroys southpaws (.356 ISO!) and Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been in amazing form for some time. He also seems to have a bit more trouble at home for some reason and sees his K rate drop by 6% when facing right-handers.

Keuchel already isn’t an elite strikeout arm, so against a patient and dangerous offense like the Red Sox, he could be in trouble.

Util: J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox ($4.3k)

Christian Yelich, the Dodgers and the Astros are all worth paying up for, but I prefer Milwaukee and Boston sticks on this slate. I’ll cap things off with Martinez, who is arguably due to launch one after not sending one deep in any of his last five outings.

Amazing analysis, I know. However, Martinez is as good of a masher as anyone and has historically murdered left-handed pitching. His splits against southpaws this year (.414 wOBA, .254 ISO) aren’t exactly lacking, either.

I’m not a big BvsP guy, but it’s worth noting that both Betts and J.D. have donged Keuchel in the past. Just saying.

Summary

It might end up being a big mistake to fade Houston sticks, use Eovaldi and limit Dodgers exposure. Then again, that might be the chalkier strategy and in GPPs we need to take chances. I don’t know how “low-owned” anyone will be in a two-game slate, but I just like the Red Sox and Brewers tonight.

Feel free to use this lineup as it stands or whatever MLB DFS picks you agree with. Either way, good luck and enjoy the games!

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