My MLB DFS playoff picks last night weren’t the greatest. I did nail a solid value arm in Nathan Eovaldi (34) and I was correct about targeting some Red Sox. I just didn’t really use the right ones.
Steve Pearce homered and Jackie Bradley hit a grand slam. I actually liked Pearce quite a bit, but I was never going to be on Bradley against a left-handed pitcher.
It wasn’t a winning night, but I had some decent picks. It’s onward and upward for another two-game slate at FanDuel tonight:
SP: Wade Miley – Milwaukee Brewers ($6k)
Like I’ve said a few times, nobody has a good matchup at this point. Even Clayton Kershaw got just three fantasy points in his last start, so I see no reason to pay a premium for expensive pitchers who have bad matchups, could struggle or may even be the first guy in a bullpen effort.
I doubt there is a bullpen outing tonight, but all of the arms could easily get blown up tonight. Miley is at least dirt cheap and allows me to stack bats. He’s also been in terrific form, allowing zero runs so far in the MLB playoffs. The Dodgers can be good at home and have the bats to murder southpaws, but I’m going to ride the wave here.
Miley is admittedly the most dangerous arm to confide in on this slate, but this is about form and price. I want all of the bats tonight.
C/1B: Erik Kratz – Milwaukee Brewers ($2k)
I don’t even know if Kratz is starting as I write this, but I know I want to punt this position to save up elsewhere. There are not a lot of great spots to save cash with just four teams playing, so using a catcher in this slot is one of the best ways to do that.
The good news is Kratz has shown some power against southpaws and he costs the bare minimum. Feel free to pivot to Austin Barnes or Manny Pina if Kratz doesn’t start. If you want to pay up here, Jesus Aguilar ($3.7k) is my stud bat of choice at the C/1B position.
2B: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros ($3.9k)
Altuve is the best 2B option and it’s not particularly close. He’s been on fire with 6+ fantasy points in six straight games and will be at home in a pretty crucial game for the Astros, who are down 2-1 in their series with Boston.
I get the feeling Houston ties things up tonight and it’ll probably be due to an offensive explosion. Considering they’re -148 favorites at Sportsbetting.ag, I’m not exactly going out on a limb here.
The Astros get Rick Porcello, who is a good pitcher but serves up a ton of contact. He’s best attacked from the right side of the plate, but that’s not a luxury we really have with this Houston offense. They’re still fully capable of mashing righties and Altuve excels (.377 wOBA) in these types of matchups.
You can’t lean on BvsP data fully, but it’s worth noting that Altuve has twice donged Porcello in the past.
3B: Alex Bregman – Houston Astros ($4.1k)
I am rolling out a full Astros stack tonight. You need to project things in playoff baseball and I just can’t see Houston losing at home to go down 3-1 in this thing. Porcello may be better targeted from the left side, but he still gives up contact and is in a hostile environment against one of the best lineups in the majors.
Bregman is pricey and I don’t mind a pivot down to Justin Turner, but his splits (.403 wOBA, .254 ISO) are all of the nasty. I’m using Miley, too, so I don’t want to get too carried away with Dodgers and stacking Brewers against Kershaw the second time around feels ill-advised.
SS: Carlos Correa – Houston Astros ($3.5k)
I’ll keep the Houston love going with Correa, who is pretty cheap and riding a nice four-game hitting streak. Manny Machado ($4.3k) is probably the best SS on the board, but Correa is a fine option and saves me a ton of cash.
OF: Chris Taylor – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.8k)
My lone Dodgers bat is CT3, who figures to get the start given his solid splits and quality play so far in the playoffs. He’s too cheap to ignore here, but if I can find a way up to Ryan Braun ($3.1k) I am going to consider it.
OF: J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox ($4.2k)
I paid up for the elite Boston bats last night and it wasn’t the right call. I will go back to the well again tonight, as Charlie Morton hasn’t been elite for a while now. Martinez mashes righties (.310 ISO) even better than lefties this year for some reason and is due for a long ball.
OF: George Springer – Houston Astros ($4.1k)
I’ll wrap up a full four-man Astros stack with Springer, who is one of five Houston sticks that has taken Ricky P yard in the past. Springer is always a threat to launch one and has respectable splits going into this matchup. If you want to pivot to Andrew Benintendi or try to pay up for Christian Yelich instead, I can’t fault you there.
Util: Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox ($4.4k)
You can pivot to Manny Machado here if you’d like, but I prefer this game for scoring. I don’t exactly want to chase after Kershaw in the off chance he’s finally good in the playoffs, while I also don’t want to stack Dodgers against my pitcher.
Betts isn’t really a consolation prize, as he’s possibly the top bat on the board. He wrecks righties (.436 wOBA, .265 ISO) and has as much upside as anyone tonight.
I think you need to take hard stances at this point. I expect the Brewers/Dodgers game to be the weaker game on this slate in terms of offensive output, so I don’t want to load up with hitting there. You should favor righties from that game if you disagree, however, while a couple of one-off sticks like CT3, Machado, JT, Aguilar and Braun are clearly very much in play.
I think Houston fights back tonight and evens their series, so I want the Astros in a possible blow-up spot. I still think Boston makes it interesting, though, so give me their two best hitters and let’s see if this lineup can’t make some noise.
Whether you’re using this exact squad or just mixing a few of my MLB DFS picks with your own, I wish you luck tonight. Enjoy the games!