Last night’s MLB DFS lineup ran into some bad luck almost immediately. Carlos Correa was 40% owned just about everywhere you looked and had a great matchup, but ended the night with a 0 thanks to an injury knocking him out of the game.
That wasn’t a great omen, while the Rangers/Athletics game wasn’t up to par. Considering I used three bats from that game, that wasn’t ideal.
My roster wasn’t elite, but it did still have some solid picks. Mike Clevinger (37) closed the night on a high note, as he was a fine pivot off of the chalky Charlie Morton and gave me a little extra salary to work with.
The luck wasn’t really there with the bats, but the logic wasn’t terrible. Matt Olson (9) was decent enough, while pretty much every hitter at least showed some signs of life.
Jose Altuve (9.5), Anthony Rendon (9.5), Curtis Granderson (9), Joey Gallo (9.5) and Charlie Blackmon (27!) all worked out plenty fine, but as you can see I only had one hitter really blow up. Matt Joyce (3) and the injured Correa (0) were my only two truly “bad” plays on the night.
Bryce Harper (44) was the play of the night and the game of the night ended up being a Dodgers/Diamondbacks battle that went 15 innings deep. So much for that humidor, huh?
The night didn’t go quite as planned, but if you were using my daily fantasy baseball picks you got one elite bat, a slew of solid hitters and a rock solid arm. Hopefully you faded Joyce/Correa and found Bryce into your lineup. If so, you may have had a pretty big night.
It’s onward and upward come Tuesday, where a ton of weather concerns could impact how you play.
Don’t worry, I will be avoiding anyone that has legit weather issues potentially effecting their game. With that, here’s my favorite GPP squad for FanDuel’s games tonight:
SP: Zach Godley – Arizona Diamondbacks ($7.5k)
Clayton Kershaw is the obvious play, but he’s $11.5k and I don’t love the value to build around him with. Justin Verlander is cheaper, but only by $1.2k. I’m not sure that’s enough savings, while a hard contact guy versus a Baltimore offense just waiting to bust out scares me a little.
I find myself wanting to get value at pitcher on this slate and Godley stands out for a lot of reasons. He’s obviously a really nice price, he pitched pretty well at home last year (4-3, 3.45 ERA and .198 opponent BA) and that stupid humidor has to help out at some point.
Even if it doesn’t, I like the value here, as well as the fact that few will want to fade two would-be elite options to use a guy facing the Dodgers. The trick there is these two offenses beat each other to death through 15 innings last night. They have to be tired, which either means fatigue could set in and/or they rest some of their key bats.
Needless to say, the offense may take a hit in this one and Godley could benefit from it in a big way. He held his own (1-1, 3.93 ERA) in three starts against this talented lineup last year and considering the fatigue factor, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him deliver a really strong outing. Just make sure you have a Dodgers hedge stack in play in case he face plants.
C/1B: Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.8k)
The Brewers host a young Cardinals pitcher that hasn’t been nearly as effective against versus lefties. Thames obviously brings serious power to the table and also boasts nasty splits (.389 wOBA, .286 ISO) against right-handed pitching.
Thames is risky just because he’s not the most efficient guy in the world, but he donged the last time I vouched for him and I love him in this spot. Let’s aim high here and save some cash in the process.
2B: Ozzie Albies – Atlanta Braves ($3.2k)
Give me all of the lefties in ATL tonight, as this park is very good for lefty power. Albies isn’t very reliable yet, but he brings solid splits to the table and will face a volatile young arm in A.J. Cole.
Cole has been inconsistent in the majors and sees his effectiveness wane against solid left-handed hitters. I’ll take a shot on Albies in what I think is a favorable matchup at home.
3B: Travis Shaw – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.7k)
I’ll double-down on the logic that Milwaukee’s lefties could have a fun night on this slate and use Shaw. His price is inflated a bit, but he has double-dong upside and the splits are very much in his favor no matter how you look at this matchup.
I do not like the value beneath him at 3B tonight, so I’m going here or probably paying up.
SS: Trea Turner – Washington Nationals ($4.6k)
Shortstop is one of the worst positions on the board. Manny Machado has a bad matchup, Corey Seager is a bench candidate and Carlos Correa is banged up. All roads lead me to Turner, who could be worth the steep price tag on this slate.
Turner has solid power, but he’s normally just a really efficient player that can rack up steals. I think he does some work tonight in what could be a shootout in Atlanta.
OF: Hunter Renfroe – San Diego Padres ($2.4k)
Wil Myers could sit out tonight, but even if he doesn’t the Padres ought to force Renfroe and his absurd splits versus southpaws (.439 wOBA, .368 ISO) into the lineup. He faces a beatable arm in Kyle Freeland, so the sky is the limit here if he’s active.
In the event of Renfroe not starting (or you just don’t like him), not Shin-soo Choo’s dirt cheap price tag ($2.2k) and a favorable matchup by the numbers against Kendall Graveman.
OF: Curtis Granderson – Toronto Blue Jays ($2k)
Granddaddy was respectable for me last night and I’ll go back to the well again with Toronto facing another beatable righty. Granderson always brings some power to the table and he’s literally the bare minimum despite solid splits (.254 ISO) in this spot.
Miguel Gonzalez is not an elite arm and the data supports Granderson here. Just do your best to ignore the ugly BvsP data here.
OF: Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals ($4.6k)
I think an elite pivot could be ignoring Harper’s dominance over Julio Teheran (17 for 37, 7 homers!) and using Mike Trout at a discounted price tag. I’m not sure I can bypass those numbers, though.
Not only is that tough to ignore, but Harper is also scorching hot to get 2018 going and he’s in a park that is vulnerable to left power. Another dong could be on it’s way.
Util: Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves ($4.2k)
I’ll wrap things up with Freddie, who has been relatively quiet to start the year due to a ton of walks. That’s not ideal, but eventually his power is going to shine through and again, you’re getting discounted exposure to a nasty lefty in a dangerous park.
Freeman is matchup proof, but he’s at home in a favorable spot against a fairly volatile arm in A.J. Cole. The upside here is beyond obvious and Freeman gives you a fourth elite power bat in this lineup. Even if the dongs aren’t there, he can rack up stats just be getting on base 2-3 times in this one, too.
If you want to fade Freeman and Harper, you can go a much more balanced route. Dropping from them opens up a Clayton Kershaw team, but I love the contrarian appeal with Godley and I want some beefy bats tonight. That’s my strategy for this slate, especially since the weather is shaking things up and I really am not enamored with a lot of the plays at 2B, 3B and SS.