We ran into another hit or miss slate on Monday, as there were some truly atrocious games that did not at all live up to the hype. Three great examples: the Rays and Tigers vastly underperformed in great spots and Coors didn’t produce a single run until the bottom of the 8th inning.
Yuck, right? Despite that nastiness, we still had quite a few hits among our FanDuel MLB picks.
We called Giancarlo Stanton donging for the fifth game in a row. I know, that’s not difficult, yet it’s still crazy. Rougned Odor was probably our best pick of the night, as he didn’t dong but he returned insane value with 33 fantasy points off of a $2.7k price tag. Amed Rosario was also decent for his price, Jake Lamb chipped in a solid 12 fantasy points and Charlie Blackmon poured in 15 fantasy points late to salvage his night.
Buster Posey managed just three fantasy points in a perfect spot, while Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison combined for zero fantasy points. Jerad Eickhoff was our top pitcher on the day and he didn’t kill your teams, but he also wasn’t amazing with just 27 fantasy points. If you dodged our Rays infatuation and pivoted to Wilson Ramos over Posey, perhaps you upgraded at 1B, OF and catcher and had the funds to go get Zack Greinke, who somehow shutout the Astros at Chase Field.
We didn’t cash with this team, but here’s to hoping you used Odor and Stanton and managed to win somehow. It’s another bright, new slate on Tuesday and we get a whopping 14 games to work with. That should lead to a lot of points and hopefully we get most of them on tonight’s FanDuel MLB lineup:
SP: Dinelson Lamet – San Diego Padres ($8.3k)
This should be a clear sign that we’re rolling our FanDuel team into GPPs, per usual. Limet is a fine try in cash games, too, though. The young Padres star will be back at home after pitching on the road in 5 of his last 6 starts and he gets a Phillies team that strikes out 23% of the time (26% vs. righties). This is a negative park shift for Philly, while Lamet has a 1.69+ ERA shift when at his home park.
Petco Park isn’t the safe haven it once was, but it still does a solid job limiting the long ball and Lamet has proven to be at his best here. The rookie has flashed an elite K rate and now that he’s back home with a pristine matchup, there really isn’t much reason to be scared off of him.
The only reason I wouldn’t pounce on Lamet is fear of an implosion, or that I fall in love with another option. Madison Bumgarner might be the only expensive ace I run to. He’s still on the road against a Marlins lineup that has two studs (namely Giancarlo Stanton) that destroy southpaws, though. Jacob deGrom is facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, too, while Justin Verlander is in Texas, Sonny Gray gets the Mets in a tough park and Danny Salazar is in Target Field against a powerful Twins lineup.
Any of those guys could still rake and we haven’t even touched on Gio Gonzalez at home against the Angels or Alex Wood at home against the White Sox. Still, dollar for dollar, Lamet is my arm tonight.
C: Alex Avila – Chicago Cubs ($2.5k)
This is my tentative play at catcher. Things tend to open up at the position and if I like a cheaper option later tonight, I may pivot. That being said, Avila is at home against a beatable young arm in Luis Castillo. Castillo has good swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s on the road against a good Cubs lineup and he serves up a lot of hard contact.
Castillo’s hard contact issues aside, Avila murders right-handed pitching (.234 ISO, .381 wOBA) and most of Castillo’s struggles come from Avila’s side of the plate (K% drops by 5 points and he’s allowing a .186 ISO to lefties).
I also just don’t like many other catchers. Buster Posey gets Dan Straily and Gary Sanchez gets deGrom. I plan on punting catcher tonight and Avila is as good of a cheap dive as any.
1B: Logan Morrison – Tampa Bay Rays ($2.9k)
I won’t be pairing or stacking Rays after they hosed my last night, but I will go back to the well with Morrison here. He’s among Tampa Bay’s best power hitters and again has favorable splits against a shaky pitcher. Marco Estrada has been better lately, but he’s not a great pitcher and has been pretty bad (0-3, 10.05 ERA) against the Rays in 2017.
Estrada not only has poor splits here (.209 ISO, .354 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters), but Morrison’s splits against righties (.278 ISO, .362 wOBA) are also quite enticing. I also love Ryan Zimmerman (.368 ISO against southpaws) but he’s a little more expensive and arguably has a tough matchup.
2B: Jonathan Schoop – Baltimore Orioles ($3.6k)
There are a few options to consider here. Daniel Murphy is discounted at $3.3k, while Jason Kipnis and Rougned Odor are both $2.5k or cheaper. I’m not enamored with those options, though, so 2B feels like a decent spot to pay up. I’m doing that with Schoop, who remains in a nice groove, supplies power and has a great matchup.
The splits continue to be off the charts for Schoop when he faces a southpaw (.289 ISO, .388 wOBA vs lefties), while he’s taking on a 31-year old in Andrew Alberts who draws his first start of the season. This is a pretty good spot to target.
3B: Travis Shaw – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.6k)
My first inclination is Anthony Rendon, who like most of the Nats comes at a solid price at home. He sports nasty splits, too. I find myself draw to Shaw, though.
Shaw knocked two balls off his foot a couple of games back, but should be ready to return tonight and owns nasty BvsP numbers against Ivan Nova (like, 10 for 13 with 3 HR kind of nasty). He wrecks right-handed pitching in general, too (.274 ISO, .402 wOBA).
This is a bad spot for Nova across the board, as well. The Pirates star does not have the safety of PNC Park here and he has a shaky 4.73 ERA on the road. He also hasn’t exactly lit up the Brewers this year (1-1, 4.85 ERA) and specifically for Shaw, gives up a .213 ISO and .355 wOBA to left-handed hitters. I’m not totally against the right Brewers stack here, but I’m all aboard the Shaw train tonight. Just make sure he’s starting.
SS: Jonathan Villar – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.8k)
Normally Villar is not part of my Brewers stacks, as he’s not very efficient and doesn’t have amazing power. I love him tonight, however. Not only has FD moved him back to the SS position, but he’s actually in a nice groove (7 hits over his last 4 games) and he looks to have a nice splits edge against Ivan Nova.
As we mentioned, Nova, struggles largely against lefties and as a switch hitter, Villar is likely to man that side of the plate tonight. That’s where he excels on the year (8 of 9 home runs, .54 OBP increase) and he also happens to be at his best against right-handed hurlers. This still feels like a risky play, but he’s cheap and the numbers are in his favor.
If I’m not rolling the dice with Villar, we can always keep using the steady Marcus Semian ($3.4k) or pay up for Francisco Lindor ($3.9k) versus Bartolo Colon.
OF: Jay Bruce – Cleveland Indians ($3.3k)
Bartolo Colon has been a new guy since heading to the Twins, but I have to have some exposure against him. This is still a 45-year old that has show steep regression and can be lit up. The Indians are not a team to be messed with and Target Field is always a dangerous place to pitch, so I’m at least taking one shot with a Cleveland bat.
Bruce is probably my favorite try. He’s a great price, in a great park with a nice matchup and also sports awesome splits (.259 ISO, .372 wOBA) against right-handed pitching. Bruce has been on a nice roll since joining The Tribe (6 hits in his first 5 games), too, while his first home run with his new squad is right around the corner. Considering Bruce’s only two hits against Colon have gone yard, I wouldn’t be shocked if that first dinger arrives tonight.
OF: Dexter Fowler – St. Louis Cardinals ($3.5k)
The Cardinals see a huge park upgrade when they take on Rick Porcello tonight at Fenway Park, while Fowler enters with strong splits (.247 ISO, .364 wOBA) against right-handed pitching. Porcello tends to be pretty stable, but this is a tough park to pitch in and he has been giving up a ton of hard contact (9 HR allowed over his last 5 starts).
That’s music to Fowler’s ears, who also has solid BvsP numbers (3 for 7, 1 HR) in limited action against Porcello.
OF: Giancarlo Stanton – Miami Marlins ($4.5k)
We do need to consider three things here: Stanton could be traded at any moment, he is facing an elite arm in Madison Bumgarner and after smacking a homer in five straight games, his streak is nearing an end. That being said, we need to ride the wave here.
Nobody is as dialed in when it comes to the long ball as Stanton is right now and he’s comfortable again at home against a southpaw that can give up the long ball. Stanton destroys left-handed pitching to the tune of a gaudy .382 ISO and .428 wOBA and he’s also had quite a bit of success against Mad Bum specifically, connecting on 8 of 16 plate appearances with 5 doubles and one home run. His second could come tonight to keep his ridiculous streak alive.