We saw another wild day of daily fantasy baseball on Thursday, especially if you played the day slate. Instead of Coors or Miller Park going nuts, the Cubs and Diamondbacks game was off the charts crazy. Yeah, the same game that had the best pitching, the least explosive park and weather concerns ended up being the one to stack.
MLB DFS is a wicked beast, but we’re back at it again to close out the week, hopefully with a stellar lineup that wins us some cold, hard cash.
SP: Jake Faria – Tampa Bay Rays ($8.1k)
I’m all about Faria today, as the pitching is fairly suspect at the highest level tonight. Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish are worth a look, but they’re facing dangerous Dodgers and Mets offenses, respectively. Madison Bumgarner and James Paxton are also in play, but I’m not into targeting the Diamondbacks and KC doesn’t strikeout that much.
I might just end up rolling with Faria, who will be at home in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field against a Brewers offense that strikes out a ton. That’s not an overstatement, either, as Milwaukee leads MLB in K’s versus righties. Faria is a good one, too, as the rookie has been pretty dominant at home (3-0, 2.81 ERA) at his home park and should be able to rack up the K’s in a home win in this spot.
C: Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants ($3.3k)
Posey is my favorite catcher today, as he’s at home against an inexperienced pitcher in Anthony Banda. Banda’s lone 2017 start wasn’t great, as he gave up four runs and didn’t produce enough soft contact. I’m not sure he’s in trouble against this offense in this park, but Posey wrecks southpaws (.253 ISO and .461 wOBA) and he should be able to take advantage of the young pup.
1B: Hanley Ramirez – Boston Red Sox ($2.9k)
HanRam always fails me but I can’t place bias here when he’s got a nice matchup at home. Carlos Rodon is a talented pitcher, but he has command issues and does give up some contact when he’s not careful. At Fenway Park, that could lead to a disastrous outing. We don’t necessarily need it to, though, as we’re just chasing Ramirez’s strong splits versus southpaws (.233 ISO, .348 wOBA) in this spot.
If we want to pay up at 1B, Justin Smoak is probably the guy I want. Brad Peacock generally doesn’t offer much hard contact, but Smoak crushes righties and isn’t a bad one-off try.
2B: Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins ($3.3k)
There are also a ton of 2b options to consider, but Dozier feels like the best value play. Dozier is at home in a nice park and faces a shaky arm in Martin Perez. The old Perez induced soft contact, but he has regressed in 2017 and specifically has issues against right-handed hitting. Dozier could thrive in this spot, thanks to his strong splits against southpaws (.222 ISO, .402 wOBA).
3B: Alex Bregman – Houston Astros ($3.4k)
I’d prefer Bregman to be a bit cheaper, but he’s been killing lately and he’s even been batting high in the order. Even if that doesn’t continue, I love him tonight against Cesar Valdez, who is allowing an astonishing .459 wOBA and .397 ISO against right-handed bats. Bregman isn’t too shabby against fellow righties, either, as he brings a solid .194 ISO and .333 wOBA to the table. I’m unsurprisingly all about Houston bats tonight, but I won’t overdo it here with Astros picks.
Bregman is far from our only option at 3B. There are a slew of viable bats and Boston rookie Rafael Devers is the same price and is red hot right now. I just prefer Bregman’s matchup tonight.
SS: Amed Rosario – New York Mets ($2.4k)
I don’t love the idea of targeting Yu Darvish too much, but debuts can go poorly and he did not look good in his last start (10 runs allowed). Rosario is New York’s top prospect and while we can’t vouch for his splits yet, I think his cheap price tag is enough reason to give him a shot here.
Marwin Gonzalez ($3.6k) is worth using with a nice matchup, while Corey Seager ($3.4k) is worth a look at a discounted price, as well.
OF: Clint Frazier – New York Yankees ($2.9k)
I’m back on the Yanks a bit tonight, now that they’re not facing Corey Kluber. They do see a park downgrade on the road against The Tribe, while it’s not like Trevor Bauer is pure trash. Still, Frazier is a cheap Yank and he owns solid splits against right-handed pitchers (.247 ISO, .320 wOBA). Bauer’s splits versus righties aren’t alarming, but I don’t think this spot is too scary to make us stay away.
OF: Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates ($4k)
I like Cutch tonight, even though he’s at PNC Park. He’s facing a beatable lefty in Travis Wood, who in 2017 has not wielded a scary K rate and also provides a shaky 33.6% fly ball rate to righty hitters. Insert Cutch, who absolutely wrecks southpaws (.532 ISO, .545 wOBA). Obviously nobody is ever a lock to go deep, but we just can’t fade numbers like these.
OF: Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies ($4.7k)
I don’t really need to tell you to use Coors bats – especially Rockies tonight – but I like the idea of wrapping this team up with Blackmon. Charlie has been on fire for about the past month and just donged yesterday, while he carries nasty splits versus right-handers (.285 ISO, .413 wOBA) into this one. He’ll be taking on Vincent Velasquez, who has some talent but is obviously in a brutal park. Velasquez’s .244 ISO against righties doesn’t help him here, either.
I don’t see anything wrong with paying up for Mike Trout again, either. The man is on fire.
Overall, this is a pretty awesome team. I might try to find a way off of Rosario if it works out (dropping at catcher is probably the best way to do so), but he offers salary relief that gets us where we want to go. I can see not wanting to confide in Faria, too, but targeting Brewers has been working out for weeks now and I’m not seeing much reason to deviate from that logic now.