There was not much room for error on a 7-game daily fantasy baseball slate last night. You didn’t need Max Scherzer or Mike Trout to win, but they undoubtedly helped you if you used them. Catcher ended up being one of the more problematic spots, while we saw some random home run plays that sent some risk takers into the high level green.
We didn’t get there, largely because Anthony Rendon, Jesus Aguilar and Hunter Renfroe came up remarkably short. It wasn’t a great night for MLB DFS overall, as just two teams – Cardinals and Reds – would top even six runs on the night. In other words, if you didn’t have a piece of that action, you were in trouble.
Hopefully our hits (Mad Max, Trout and Zack Cozart) helped you win. If not, it’s back to the drawing board as we take on a huge MLB DFS slate for Tuesday night:
SP: Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox ($11.4k)
I do not like pitcher as a whole tonight, as we simply don’t have any reliable alternatives to paying up for Sale or Corey Kluber. Everyone else either is on the road, in a bad park, has a matchup that doesn’t promote Ks, isn’t reliable or has an inflated price.
I think this is the type of slate where we pay up and pick a side. Kluber has been fantastic and he’s at home, but he gets the Rockies and Sale gets a park upgrade in Tampa Bay against a Rays offense that strikes out a ton. Pitcher is an easy call for me. It’s Sale by a mile and with every MLB team hitting diamonds tonight, we should be able to locate plenty of value to make it happen.
C: Austin Hedges – San Diego Padres ($2.5k)
I don’t love that Hedges saw his price rise from last night, but he’s still in a great park and again faces a beatable pitcher. Sal Romano has a tough time limiting right-handed hitting (.207 ISO, .367 wOBA), while Hedges does his best work against fellow righties (.245 ISO). He’s risky, but catcher looks dicey tonight. I see this as a great spot to punt and try a one-off bat in a good park with good splits. Hedges fits the bill.
1B: Tyler White – Houston Astros ($2.6k)
Give me all of the Tyler White tonight. He has wrecked with three home runs over his last two games and will get a very beatable southpaw in Derek Holland tonight. White is young and the sample size is extremely small, but the numbers look fine from the other side, too, with Holland coughing up a .266 ISO and .400 wOBA against righties. I don’t even know if I care where White is batting tonight. Just make sure he starts.
If we want to pay up we can target Joey Gallo, who mashes righties and has seen a power surge recently. He also gets a young pitcher in Chris Flexen, who has gotten roasted by the 10 lefties he’s went up against. Jesus Aguilar is another (cheaper) option to consider. He’s in a good park and wrecks southpaws, so he should be in play. I also like Yonder Alonso ($3k), as he’ll be returning to Oakland in a “true revenge” setting.
2B: Josh Harrison – Pittsburgh Pirates ($2.9k)
We probably need to pay up at 2B if we want true safety, but if we need an intermediate priced option, I think Harrison is it. PNC Park is not the ideal spot for hitting, but he gets Matthew Boyd tonight and owns strong splits (.180 ISO, .362 wOBA) when facing left-handed pitchers.
Boyd’s splits are where the real damage comes, though, as the Tigers southpaw is allowing a .181 ISO and .362 wOBA to right-handed hitters. His fly ball rate jumps 15% when facing that side of the plate, too, so I wouldn’t be too shocked if Harrison launched one tonight.
Odor is only $300 more and should be in play, along with most Rangers bats. They have a great matchup tonight at Citi Field against Chris Flexen.
3B: Matt Chapman – Oakland Athletics ($3.1k)
Oakland isn’t the best spot for home runs, but I smell a long ball here. Chapman gets southpaw Ariel Miranda, who sees his efficiency drop quite a bit on the road and also happens to allow a .227 ISO and .310 wOBA to opposing righty bats.
Chapman has also been insanely on fire (12+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 outings) and sports fun power (.206 ISO) against southpaws. I’d prefer to get Ryon Healy at 3B, but with him moving to 1B I’ll settle with the red hot Chapman.
SS: Marwin Gonzalez – Houston Astros ($3.3k)
I prefer to use Marwin against right-handed pitchers, but Derek Holland is not a scary arm and Gonzalez is still putting up strong splits (.232 ISO, .342 wOBA) when facing southpaws. He’s been a fine try either way and if I’m paying the same price for the likes of Marcus Semien or Orlando Arcia, why not roll with an Astro?
OF: Matt Adams – Atlanta Braves ($2.7k)
Adams has been quite lately, but he carries power potential and will be at home against an average arm in Zach Eflin. Adams is not efficient, but he only needs one big hit to pay off and he could get it in this matchup. Adams owns killer splits against right-handed pitchers (.255 ISO, .368 wOBA), while Eflin specifically has issues taming lefty hitters (.253 ISO, .373 wOBA). Sign me up.
OF: Adam Lind – Washington Nationals ($2.2k)
Lind has been in a bit of a rut but he looks like a fine punt play to open up our salary a bit for one stud masher. Lind himself can send the ball deep when he’s dialed in, as his nasty .234 ISO against right-handed pitching suggests. He’s at home against a beatable arm in Vance Worley, so provided he draws the start, there are few punts that look more appealing.
OF: Michael Conforto – New York Mets ($4.2k)
Conforto gets Andrew Cashner tonight, who surprisingly has not given up much power in 2017, but still gives up plenty of contact and tends to struggle more on the road. He’ll be in a tough spot at Citi Field tonight and there’s a decent chance Conforto can exploit him with his nasty splits (.277 ISO, .415 wOBA) against right-handed pitching.
We’re avoiding full blown stacks in today’s write-up just because it’s such a wide open slate. That being said, Vance Worley, Chris Flexen and Derek Holland are three of the best pitchers to target on this slate, putting Nats, Rangers and Astros stacks firmly in play. As for weather, the Braves/Phillies game looks like the only dicey spot, so keep an eye on that.