FanDuel MLB Picks – September 29th

We have reached the end of the line for the 2017 daily fantasy baseball season. There are still games to be played on Saturday and Sunday and we might dabble in playoff games initially, but for the most part, our MLB DFS run ends here.

It’s been a wild ride, full of some great nights with hot bats, as well as some horror show outings from guys like Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Baseball is probably the most volatile DFS genre you can play, but in the name of the grand slam, it’s also one of the most fun.

Reflecting is fun, but we still have one more slate to try to go out on top. We’ve had some mild success in 2017, but we never hit a big pot. We’ll aim extra high tonight and try to do just that. Regardless of your strategy, be sure to consider injuries, scratches, player limits and team motivation.

There are still some teams playing for seeding and even a playoff spot, so factor that into your decision-making. Let’s get to it:

SP: Trevor Bauer – Cleveland Indians ($9k)

We can probably bypass the two would-be stud pitchers – Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg – as the D’Backs and Nats have nothing to play for. Those guys could still crush it, but they could be pulled at anytime. I just don’t want to pay for any type of a restriction.

Bauer should be all systems go. He’s got a great matchup at home against a weak White Sox lineup and they aren’t good against right-handed pitching. They also stink on the road and get a negative park shift. All of that sounds great, but Bauer and The Tribe are also trying to nab the #1 seed in the AL. Due to his talent, solid form and pretty much everything that can work for a pitcher, I love Bauer tonight.

While I’m pretty locked in on Bauer Outage, there are some viable punts. Ben Lively gets a trashed out Mets lineup and Tyler Skaggs is at home in a good park against a Mariners team that has nothing to play for but pride. They are obviously risky punts, but they’re cheap and could allow you to get all of the bats you desire.

C: Stephen Vogt – Milwaukee Brewers ($2.2k)

Milwaukee gets a negative park shift tonight but they still have a lot of power and need to win to make it into the playoffs. Vogt is pretty appealing, as he has strong splits (.200 ISO) against righties and faces a young arm in John Gant. The sample size has been small, but Gant has given up a sick .375 ISO to lefties and in his two years on the job has allowed a lot of contact.

We’re not paying much for Vogt’s power, so the risk is small. There are pricier catchers to consider (I’ll consider paying for whoever starts for the Dodgers at Coors), but I love the savings, splits and upside here with Vogt.

1B: Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers ($2.8k)

Gallo is in a slump and he’s facing a guy that he is 0-4 against with 4 strikeouts, but I love him tonight. Not only is he at home in a great park for long balls, but he sports nasty splits against right-handed pitchers (.338 ISO) and gets a young hurler who has serious issues with hard contact.

Raul Alcantara gave up 9 homers in just five games last year and has given up 4 more through 7 appearances in 2017. Hard contact plus ideal splits in Globe Life Park is an awful combination for any pitcher, plus this guy is giving up a .207 ISO to lefty bats. Sign me up for Gallo as we aim high on our final night of MLB DFS.

2B: Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians ($3.3k)

The Tribe is super pricey tonight as they host the White Sox. Mike Pelfrey is a big reason why and I don’t mind attacking his .259 ISO against lefty bats. Kipnis is heating up (homered in his last game) and gets us cheap exposure to the Indians. His splits and recent form are solid and with 2B typically being inflated at the top, we get a little value here, as well.

3B: Manny Machado – Baltimore Orioles ($3.2k)

Everyone will be on guys like Justin Turner and Nolan Arenado at Coors. I love them, too, but we need to save in some spots and honestly, Machado is just too cheap. He has a great history (4 HR, 11 RBI) against Jake Odorizzi and I doubt he’s highly owned in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The value and upside here is as good as anyone at the position, so why not save at the same time?

SS: Adeiny Hechavarria – Tampa Bay Rays ($2.8k)

The first seven shortstops are all over $4k tonight, so you can already see the crazy slate we’re dealing with at FanDuel. I have interest in a lot of those guys, but I’m not sure I can bypass a cheap SS against Wade Miley. Not only does Adeiny Hechavarria sport solid splits against southpaws, but he’s been in a nice groove and is a great price.

The real play here is about targeting a combustible arm like Miley, though. Miley is a walking gascan and specifically has issues with righty power (.192 ISO, .373 wOBA). This is a dice roll, but it’s going to be fun if Hech pays off in the face of a ton of high-priced SS options.

OF: Jay Bruce – Cleveland Indians ($3.2k)

Along with Kipnis, we can also use Bruce to get more Indians exposure at a discount. There are better Cleveland bats to pay for, but the best way to attack Big Pelf is with lefty power. Bruce is too cheap for this matchup.

OF: Giancarlo Stanton – Miami Marlins ($4.2k)

There is so much to love about Stanton tonight. He tends to thrive at home, he double-donged last night and he’s chasing 60 homers. He sits just one away as he prepares to feast in a matchup against a southpaw and for a guy who mashes lefties to the tune of a .455 ISO, this is as must-use as it gets.

It gets better. We don’t even have to force him into our roster, as he remains very affordable, all things considered. That, and there’s a mild chance he goes lower owned with a game at Coors tonight.

OF: Khris Davis – Oakland Athletics ($4.1k)

Usually we want to try Davis against fellow righties, but we shouldn’t scoff at his splits against southpaws (.224 ISO). This is a risky play mostly due to Khris whiffing a lot, but he’s in the ever hittable Globe Life Park and gets to face one of the more beatable lefties in Martin Perez.

The splits aren’t jaw-dropping, but Perez has most of his troubles on the right side of the plate and Davis has owned him in his career (.500 BA, 2 HR) to this point. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take Perez yard for the third (and fourth) time tonight.

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