FanDuel MLB Picks – July 17th

We return after taking the weekend off – a weekend that was quite chalky. Hopefully that helped you win big in some FanDuel MLB contests. Of course, hopefully our Friday’s MLB DFS picks helped you win big, as well. Johnny Cueto was a classic gaffe, but our bats were extremely lively, with Buster Posey, Ryan Braun, Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto all sending one yard. If you used those bats and Jacob deGrom (who we did plug as the top overall arm) you were probably sitting pretty in cash games and maybe even had a shot at taking down a GPP tourney.

Friday was Friday, though. Let’s keep things moving as we take a look at Monday’s MLB DFS slate and see about piecing together our favorite squad for GPP contests:

SP: Lance McCullers Jr. – Houston Astros ($9.1k)

This is a weird slate for pitching on FanDuel, as Jon Lester is the most expensive arm but doesn’t feel like an elite pitcher to target. He gets a beatable Braves team, but he has not been reliable and he’s on the road in an increasingly dangerous park. What’s really concerning is there just are not many options we can feel good about. Jason Vargas seems to be regressing and gets a powerful Tigers lineup, Adam Wainwright is on the road against a dangerous Mets squad, Marcus Stroman is at Fenway against the deadly Red Sox, Julio Teheran has been hit or miss and gets a revived Cubs offense. The list really does go on and on and for me, all roads might lead back to Lance McCullers Jr.

It’s true that one of Houston’s top arms has not been in top form lately (25 and 7 fantasy points over his last two starts), but getting beat up against the Yankees and on the road versus the Jays isn’t the end of the world. The All-Star break could have cleared out of the cob webs for LMJ, too, who was only making his third start since returning from injury. I expect him to be much more dialed in, plus it’s hard to go against his gaudy 2.34 home ERA. Seattle also tends to struggle on the road and based on sheer talent and upside, Lance is the best overall play. There is some risk due to Seattle’s power and McCuller’s recent form, but I’m not biting on him being a bust tonight. We’re actually getting him at a sharp discount and if more people shy away from him, we might be getting the top arm at lower ownership, too. Color me sold.

If we must go away from the top arms, I don’t hate Brent Suter at PNC Park. The Milwaukee hurler gets a terrific park shift and has posted 13 Ks and 2 earned runs in his last two starts – one of which came at Yankee Stadium. He’s just $6.6k on FD and would allow for a fun bat-stacked GPP lineup.

C: Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals ($3k)

I’m a fan of a small, sneaky Royals stack tonight, as they get the ever hittable Jordan Zimmerman at home. The price has dropped for the mashing Perez, who is splits proof and is always at risk of going yard. Perez’s numbers actually take a dip at the conservative Kauffman Stadium, but this is a solid matchup and he’s being offered to us at a discount. I also don’t mind Evan Gattis here, but Perez is my favorite catcher play on the night.

1B: Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles ($3k)

You can go in so many directions at 1B, so I’m again paying down here with Orioles masher, Chris Davis. Crush is at home against a beatable arm in Andrew Cashner, who tends to give up too much hard contact and also struggles (2-5, 4.37 ERA) on the road. That’s probably a bad combination at Camden Yards, so Davis could be worth a shot. He’s about as HR-hunting as it gets, but he’s a pretty good price and is a threat to go long in any game. I’m calling my shot here.

Justin Bour ($3.4k) is also in a great spot, as he’s had some success against Jerad Eickhoff, wrecks righties and Eickhoff specifically has been awful on the road and had serious troubles with left-handed hitters (.388 OBP).

2B: Rougned Odor – Texas Rangers ($3.2k)

I’m also pretty high on Odor, as we get to stay in that same game at the explosive Camden Yards. This showdown between the Orioles and Rangers has a sweet Total (10.5) and it could easily top that with two potent offenses and some shaky pitching. Chris Tillman has turned things around lately, but Odor crushes righties and Tillman has given up at least one long ball in each of his last 7 starts. Odor is in a mild rut at the moment, but this is a pretty good spot to get him out of it.

3B: Mike Moustakas – Kansas City Royals ($3.2k)

I’m really in the mood for value tonight and I think we get it in spades with Moose. Moustakas offers us great splits against a beatable righty in Jordan Zimmerman, he packs a power punch and he’s also dropped in price at FD. There are more potent 3B options to drool over, but he offers plenty of pop and has a great matchup. I don’t see much reason to fade him tonight.

SS: Carlos Correa – Houston Astros ($4.2k)

There’s really never anything wrong with paying up for Astros bats and I certainly don’t mind doing so for Correa when SS is looking as rough as it is tonight. I’m mildly interested in Trevor Story at Coors Field, but Correa offers more safety and upside and also has destroyed left-handed pitching (.465 OBP) in 2017. He gets Ariel Miranda at home and the Mariners hurler has not been great on the road (5.48 ERA). The splits favor Correa, who doesn’t even necessarily need to personally wreck, considering he’s on the best offense in baseball.

OF: Clint Frazier – New York Yankees ($2.4k)

This is the glue of tonight’s daily fantasy baseball lineup. Clint Frazier provides a massive discount, has some nice raw power and also sports stellar splits (albeit in limited action) against left-handed pitching. He’s no sure thing and ideally he’s got a solid spot in the order, but if we want all the bats and McCullers, we need to take a dive or two. Frazier is a risk worth taking on this slate.

OF: Corey Dickerson – Tampa Bay Rays ($3.3k)

Dickerson’s price has been dropping at FanDuel lately and that probably has something to do with his power going away. That’s bound to return, though, and even though he’s facing a talented young pitcher on the road in a pitcher’s park, it’s not the worst gamble to hope it comes back tonight. It doesn’t even need to, though, as Dickerson proved two games ago (4 hits) that he can rack up the fantasy points without the long ball. He’s simply gotten to be too cheap and with his power and efficiency combo, we can’t bypass him on Monday.

OF: Jay Bruce – New York Mets ($3.6k)

I also don’t hate Andrew Benintendi and Marwin Gonzalez in this price range, but Beni is in a mild drought and facing a groundball pitcher, while Marwin has bad splits on tonight’s matchup with Ariel Miranda. Both could still easily send one long and pay off, but I’m instead rolling with Jay Bruce.

Bruce has been red hot lately, as the Mets’ slugger has hit safely in 7 straight games and topped 20+ fantasy points four times during that stretch. The power and focus have been there and Bruce and his Mets teammates are at home tonight against a beatable arm in Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been annoyingly decent at times in 2017, but he’s also blown up (6+ earned runs) three times over his last 7 starts. There’s no guarantee he does that again tonight, but the Mets have been in a bit of a groove lately and Bruce specifically has a lot of history (and success) against Wainwright.

I’m not calling for a dong here necessarily, but Bruce has been feeling it, is at home, knows the pitcher and also owns the splits edge. I see little reason not to give him a shot to wrap things up for Monday’s MLB DFS FanDuel picks.

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