The week got off to a rocky start on Monday, as the Dodgers got blanked by Ricky Nolasco of all people and the Nationals were pretty late to show up to the party versus Eddie Butler. There’s really no explaining either performance. These are two elite offenses with awesome matchups at home and they just stunk up the joint.
We did vouch for German Marquez, too, who inexplicably was awful in a pitcher’s park against one of the worst offenses in baseball. Hopefully you just went with Chris Sale, who we also loved. We also suggested fading walking disasters that would be Carlos Carrasco and Cole Hamels. It was a slate to forget unless you stacked Indians and Rangers, so let’s move on to a hopefully much more successful Tuesday night:
SP: Luis Severino – New York Yankees ($9.2k)
Mad Max is the top arm on this slate, but it would only make sense for the lifeless Cubs to rise up and strike him down on the road. Pitching calls have been going completely backwards lately, plus Scherzer is $12k with a less than ideal matchup. Carlos Martinez is $2.3k cheaper and we don’t even really want him, as he’ll be in the hittable Chase Field against a dangerous Diamondbacks squad.
Severino has been weak in his last two starts, but he’s too good to stay grounded forever and he gets a very good matchup with a White Sox offense that hasn’t been great against right-handed pitching. The park isn’t the best, but Severino provides high K upside and has posted a blistering 2.70 ERA away from the volatile Yankee Stadium. I also like James Paxton ($8.5k) at home against the Phillies, while Jeff Hoffman ($7.4k) could actually deliver what German Marquez couldn’t at AT&T Park last night against the Giants.
C: Chris Herrman – Arizona Diamondbacks ($2.3k)
Herrman is a good starting point at catcher tonight, as I’m not enamored with anyone else other than expensive bats like Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey or Salvador Perez. Herrman is at home, dirt cheap, in a groove and wrecks right-handed pitching. We’re getting immense value and upside with this play, with the only bummer being a date with Carlos Martinez. Martinez could easily dominate this game, but he’s in a bad environment so using a cheap D’Back isn’t a bad try. Just make sure Herrman is active.
We can pay up for catcher or we can keep going back to Yasmani Grandal, who is a solid price ($2.9k), at home and faces the beatable Jesse Chavez.
1B: Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.1k)
I do not plan on paying up for 1B tonight, as there is simply way too much value to be had at the position. It really all starts with Anthony Rizzo ($3.2k), who sports killer splits versus righties and is way too cheap for the upside he offers. He gets Mad Max on the road tonight, but Scherzer is good for hard contact and Rizzo has fared well against him in limited action.
I’m totally game for Rizzo, while I also don’t hate Justin Bour ($3k) at home with a solid matchup versus Robert Gsellman. The path of least resistance may reside with Thames, though. We get as much power as anywhere else, the value is similar and Thames wrecks right-handed pitching. He’s also specifically haunted the Reds this year, so beyond the obvious data, the narrative demands you give him a shot tonight.
2B: Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians ($3.1k)
We need to watch this game due to weather, but the Indians wrecked last night and could again as they prepare to face Tyson Ross. Ross got absolutely destroyed in his last start and that is one reason to get behind Kipnis, who is a good price, at home and sports positive splits in this matchup.
If I’m not using Kipnis, I don’t mind paying up for Robinson Cano, who will also be at home and wrecks right-handed pitching.
3B: Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers ($3.9k)
I like a lot of 3B options tonight, as you can talk me into Jake Lamb, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado or even a dive with Kris Bryant ($2.9k) against Mad Max. I don’t mind paying up for JT at home against Jesse Chavez, though. Turner sure is pricey, but he’s been red hot and provides enough power to tempt me here. His splits are also off the charts and Chavez is a fun pitcher to target thanks to a nasty 6.53 road ERA and 14 long balls allowed against righties this year alone.
SS: Trea Turner – Washington Nationals ($3.7k)
I don’t love SS tonight, as the top options do not have ideal spots. If I can find a punt I can really get behind, I might do that. I’m tentatively on Trea, though, as he’s at home with positive splits and comes at a discount. You’re not using him because you think he will dong Jake Arrieta, though. You’re just hoping he gets one base once or twice and swipes a bag or two.
This position isn’t as good tonight as it looks, but I could go cheaper with Francisco Lindor or Jean Segura and feel fine.
OF: Chris Young – Boston Red Sox ($2.3k)
This is another game that could have some weather risk associated with it, but if it’s a go we probably need to take advantage of Young, who is insanely cheap and destroys right-handed pitching. He’s not the safest play you can use, but he can easily get a long ball and the splits are worth chasing. Hector Santiago is also a good pitcher to target, as the Twins hurler has allowed 11 total runs over his last two starts and owns an awful 6.56 road ERA.
OF: Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox ($3.6k)
Ditto for Betts, who rakes lefties and always has the power to dominante. He ironically has just one dong at Fenway Park this year, but we can’t lean on that data alone. This is a solid matchup for him and he remains too cheap to bypass. There are a lot of solid OF options to consider, of course, and we can go after Khris Davis, who is the same price and has a winnable matchup against the volatile Mike Fiers.
OF: J.D. Martinez – Detroit Tigers ($3.8k)
Martinez is a fine way to wrap things up, as he’s at home and gets a beatable arm in southpaw, Matt Strahm. Strahm got blasted (7 hits, 5 runs) his last time out and that could happen again tonight in Detroit. I don’t know if I want to necessarily chase a Tigers stack (although we could), but I certainly want a piece of Martinez, who demolishes left-handed pitching. He has the splits and power at his advantage here.
There are plenty of options around this price range we can also consider. We can try Charlie Blackmon (wrecks righties, gets Matt Cain) or we can spend $200 more and try a discounted Bryce Harper.