FanDuel MLB Picks – September 27th

Backing Chris Sale is becoming a death wish. I’m not sure how or why he keeps cratering our teams when we use him, but that’s been the reality. Sale was logically a great play last night, yet he got bombed at home by a Toronto lineup he hadn’t given a single run to in his three previous starts against them.

That was crazy, but if you used our daily fantasy baseball FanDuel picks you should have still cashed. Our Sale team was still littered with solid efforts out of our bats, while Sale’s 24 fantasy points didn’t necessarily make for a death sentence.

He was surely disappointing, but we got bailed out from Mike Trout again going yard, while Hunter Renfroe (who we talked up in our Jay Bruce blurb), Corey Seager, Stephen Vogt and Yonder Alonso all posted 21+ fantasy points. Jay Bruce also chipped in 9.5 fantasy points and Aaron Altherr had a solid day with 12 fantasy points.

Mike Moustakas (3) and Jason Kipnis (6) were our only bad plays on the night, but they at least got on the board. Overall, it was a very strong team, but it could have been even better if Sale was close to elite. Oh, and the one night we get off of J.D. Martinez, he hits a grand slam. Ideally, we would have put J.D. in over Altherr and dropped down from Sale.

Hindsight is everything in MLB DFS, but you just have to trust the data and your gut and roll with it. We’ll do so again on Wednesday night’s slate:

SP: Garrett Richards – Los Angeles Angels ($8.2k)

First off, there are two obvious cash game arms tonight – Luis Severino ($10.3k) and Rich Hill ($10.2k). I love them both and probably prefer Hill just because he’s in a better park against a team that in general isn’t as powerful.

Those are the top options to use across the board and I’m really fine with either of them. That being said, we’re looking to take down a GPP. You can do that with those guys and they’re safer, but I want to save tonight and I like the positive trend of Richards.

The Halos have taken it easy on arguably their best pitcher, but he’s looked fantastic and has seen his pitch count rise every game. He’s now closing in on 90-pitch territory and considering the form and upside we’re getting here, I’m game for tossing him into a GPP. He’s in a dicey park, but the White Sox as a whole aren’t that scary and this is a guy who has handled the Astros and Rangers with ease.

Sure, maybe Richards gets blown up in his last start of the year, but he’s dialed in and has allowed just four runs across five starts in 2017. I like his chances to end the year on a high not and build positive momentum towards 2018. If he can do that, we get a quality arm at a discount and it allows us to get the bats we want.

C: Gary Sanchez – New York Yankees ($3.7k)

I love me some Yanks right now, as they still have a slight chance at stealing the AL East crown. They probably won’t, but they’re red hot right now and will certainly try to make it happen. Sanchez is part of that and while he’s pricey, I love him at home with his splits (.257 ISO) versus righties.

We could also go right back to Stephen Vogt ($2.1k) tonight, who will be at home in a great park against the ever beatable Homer Bailey.

1B: Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.4k)

I certainly am a fan of the Brew Crew tonight. Bailey is an arm we always want to consider targeting, while Milwaukee is at home trying to lock up a playoff spot. Thames can mash 1-2 deep at anytime and he’s absolutely crushed it against the Reds this year (10 HR!). He also sports almost a .300 ISO against right-handed pitching, so he’s one of the better tries tonight if you’re hunting for a long ball.

2B: Neil Walker – Milwaukee Brewers ($3.3k)

I love the idea of a full Brewers stack, but even if we don’t go there we can still try a couple of them. Walker certainly qualifies, as 2B again is trash beyond the top options and he’s got a great matchup in a terrific park. He’s one of many Brewers with terrific splits against righties, so feel free to fire him or virtually any Brewer up tonight.

3B: Mike Moustakas – Kansas City Royals ($2.8k)

Moose was a turd for us last night, but he’s back again with a great matchup against a righty at home. Jordan Zimmerman has endured a terrible run in 2017 and gives up a .227 ISO to lefty bats. Moustakas brings serious power to the table and wrecks right-handed pitching. At this price, I’m not considering many other 3B options tonight.

SS: Corey Seager – Los Angeles Dodgers ($2.7k)

I actually am not as enamored with Seager as I normally am, as Clayton Richard is nasty against fellow lefties. Still, Seager wrecked last night, is at home, is dirt cheap and crushes southpaws. He comes with risk and we need to make sure he’s active, but if he’s playing we can’t say no when he’s this cheap.

OF: Kole Calhoun – Los Angeles Angels ($3k)

I like the Angels in general tonight but everyone will immediately look to Mike Trout and Justin Upton. That’s plenty fine, but Calhoun is cheaper, brings some power to the table and faces a beatable young arm in Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez happens to struggle largely against lefty bats, too (.207 ISO), so I like this side of the matchup better.

OF: Hunter Renfroe – San Diego Padres ($2.7k)

We’re going back to the well with Renfroe, who crushes southpaws (.375 ISO) and donged for us last night. I don’t love the idea of targeting Rich Hill, but he can give up some power and Renfroe carries sweet splits and gets a park upgrade. At this low price, worse risks have been taken.

OF: Aaron Judge – New York Yankees ($5.1k)

I’m all for another fun night of Mike Trout action, but why not go for broke with Judge? He actually might end up being slightly contrarian with Trout being cheaper, while he’s clearly quite expensive. Judge has been flat out wrecking lately and will be at home with a hot Yankees team that is trying to chase the Red Sox for the AL East crown. I’m game for all of the narrative in this one.

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