Giants vs. Brewers MLB Pick – July 13th

The San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers got into a tight battle last night that went all the way to extra innings. The Giants couldn’t close the game out after taking a 6-5 lead in the top of the 9th. It was a back-and-forth affair, and Christian Yelich made sure that the Brewers were going to get another word in.

Yelich connected on a triple to set up the tying run to go to the 10th inning. Buster Posey provided a kill shot shortly thereafter, though. He belted a grand slam to deep center to put the game out of reach. Good game last night and we should be in for another good one on Saturday.

Crazily enough, the Giants have given themselves a puncher’s chance of getting into the postseason. They’ve been hanging around 5 games back of the final wildcard in the National League, which is enough room to go on a run. However, realistically the Giants are looking at being sellers and preparing for the future.

It wouldn’t make much sense to take a run at the postseason where they likely will come up short. Even if they do get in, no one foresees them going too far. You have to admire their fight and no quit attitude, though. They don’t have the most talent, yet they’re still competing against better teams.

The Brewers are in a heated race with the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. They expect to win now, and nothing short of a successful postseason run will be a bust in Milwaukee. The NL Central is there for anyone who wants to take it. No one has really taken the initiative to jump out ahead. The Cubs were winners on Friday by a score of 4-3 over the Pirates. That provides a 1.5-game edge over the Brewers – not much breathing room to be had. Head below for our free Giants vs. Brewers pick.

S.F. Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -120/Giants +100
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 4.03 ERA)
  • Zach Davies (7-2, 3.07 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

The trade value for Madison Bumgarner is going to be decent, but I’m expecting that the Giants are going to be disappointed with what the market is going to bear for him. Last season would have been the perfect opportunity to trade him. He was still pitching at an elite level, finishing the season with an ERA of 3.26 on a bad
team. Heading into Saturday, Bumgarner holds an ERA of 4.03 in 111.2 innings.

Teams are going to use that to their advantage when negotiating with the Giants. Having said that, every team knows well that Bumgarner would be an excellent asset to have in the postseason. This just allows to perhaps get him at a cheaper price. He hasn’t been too proficient pitching on the road this season, with an ERA of 4.60 and 1.34 WHIP in 47 innings.

Bumgarner has been sharp in his last three outings, but all of them came at home in San Francisco. He’s been adequate against the Brewers, allowing 15 runs in 125 at-bats against this roster in his career. Ryan Braun is responsible for 2 home runs and 7 runs against Bumgarner. Conversely, the Giants have scored 5 runs on Zach Davies in 44 at-bats.

Davies has been the backbone of the Brewers’ rotation this season, as he goes into his first start of the second-half with a 3.07 ERA in 96.2 innings. Davies has allowed just 1-run in his last 10.1 innings on the mound. The oddsmakers seem to be overvaluing Bumgarner just a little bit here. That’s been the case throughout this year, though. Any big name pitcher is going to be respected by the sportsbooks.

He’s going to attract money regardless simply because of his name, so it makes sense looking at it like that. However, Davies appears to be undervalued after he has proven in the first-half that he can be a reliable starting pitcher. The Brewers fell last night, but they are still a quality team at Miller Park, with a record of 27-19. Look for Milwaukee to find a way to bounce back after suffering a tough loss in extras on Friday at home.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.