It’s Monday, so we have a whole new slate of series this week across Major League Baseball, and I for one, and ready to put last week’s mess behind me and get back on the grind. Last week was rough, but it is a long season, and I’m pretty confident we can get back to our usual position of winning more than we are losing…
We don’t have any marquee matchups tonight, but the Rockies have a nice chance to extend their NL West lead with a trip to Philly and winless Jared Eickhoff and the Cubs will look to finally kick things into gear as they begin a set against the Giants tonight on ESPN. The Cubs are just two games over .500 – a far cry from where the champs were in mid-May last season.
This series marks the unofficial end of the first third of the season, and if the postseason started today, the Diamondbacks and Dodgers would have a Greinke vs. Kershaw duel to see who would advance to play Colorado and the Nationals would be hosting the Brewers. That means no Cardinals, Giants, Mets, and of course, CUBS. We shall see how different things look in a few months. Is this just an interesting start to a still-long season, or are changes brewing in the recently stable and predictable National League??
Today’s MLB Pick:
San Francisco Giants +185 at Chicago Cubs -195 (Total: 10.5)
Ty Blach (1-2, 4.15 ERA) vs. John Lackey (4-3, 4.37 ERA)
There is some real value in this line. Blach has better season stats than Lackey, the Giantsm despite a disastrous record, have won seven of their last nine and appear to be regressing back to the expected mean after a slow start, and the Cubs are just two games over .500 and just 11-10 at home this season.
This play is all about value. Sometimes taking a longshot flyer can be inadvisable when in a losing streak, which I admittedly have been. But there is also a nice jump start to a value play to double-up some winnings.
San Francisco’s Ty Blach has his best outing since joining the rotation in late April in his last start, going seven innings and allowing just a single run against the potent Los Angeles Dodgers. He will face a similar tough task in the Cubs lineup tonight – especially given Kris Bryant’s success against lefties this season, but I think Blach will give his mates a chance to win.
Likewise, the 38-year old veteran Lackey has had some hiccups this season, but has won his last three outings after opening the season 1-3. However, some of his success has been aided by the offense. He allowed three runs in five innings in two starts sandwiched around a surprising gem in Colorado (no runs in seven innings pitched). I think the Giants will have a few opportunities early tonight in Wrigley.
The Cubs are the better team, but at two to one odds with an even pitching matchup and the hotter club the underdog, I’ll roll the dice on the value.
Today’s MLB Pick: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS TO WIN +185