We enter today on a 4-1 ATS run with three wins at plus-money or even money on the week and looking to capitalize at the end of the American Holiday weekend. I took a one-day hiatus yesterday with some family obligations, but am back and ready to roll today.
But first, what is going on in National League – specifically on the pitcher’s mound – these last few weeks. Every untouchable ace became immediately mortal (or injured) and the trend continued yesterday as Jake Arrieta lost for the third time in six starts after going nearly a YEAR without losing ONCE. I think it is perfectly fair to ask if the magic is gone. I was a religious banker at the ATM of Arrieta all Spring long, and it helped amass some nice profits. I’ve stayed away the last month, and it has been a wise call. Until further notice the BUY BUY BUY stock of Jake Arrieta is officially downgraded to HOLD.
In the meantime, here is the game I am BUYING today.
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Today’s Free Pick:
San Francisco Giants +128 at Arizona Diamondbacks -138 (Total: 9)
Albert Suarez (3-1, 3.83 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (4-7, 4.69 ERA)
I get it. Suarez is considered a bit of a “spot starter” who is only making his sixth start of the season in the rotation spot of the injured Matt Cain. As such, games he has pitched has generally tuned into heavy bullpen workload games as he rarely pitches more than five innings.
But the five innings he pitches have been quality for the most part. In his last five starts, he has allowed two or three runs in each. Not GREAT, but not terrible. And when you factor in Robbie Ray’s ERA near five, it serves to figure Suarez will at least give his team a chance to win.
The Giants are still the best road team in baseball. The D’Backs are the second worst home team in baseball. Therefore, I’ll take the way better team in a fairly neutral pitching matchup AND the nice plus money line at +120 to +128 depending upon your book.
The Giants have split this series so far, and are just 3-5 in their last eight games. But prior to that, they were the best team in the league for more than a month. I like them to fare well tonight and rough up Robbie Ray and escape with a series win. Plus, that fat money line is too juicy to ignore…