We notched a second straight MLB winner last night with a nice plus-money runline victory with the Nationals taking down the Marlins 5-3. The Fish decided to pitch to Bryce Harper. And they probably regret it. The reigning MVP took them deep in the seventh inning for his tenth homerun of the season and his 29th RBI, good for second and third best in the National League respectively. It will be interesting to see if Daniel Murphy can continue his hot start in the fourth spot in the order behind Harper. If he can, Harper might just find himself in line for a second straight MVP award… assuming he can avoid another dozen suspensions and ejections…
There are some fantastic games on the Saturday schedule, and many of them are early. The Nationals made headlines this week by signing Strasburg to a massive contract. He will make his first start since that deal this afternoon at home against the Marlins. Then Jake Arrieta hosts the Pirates at 2:20 in an attempt to bounce back from his first non-amazing start in close to a year. Vegas seems to think he will. They are a whopping -270 against Jeff Locke and a team that won 98 games last year…
Let’s see if we can make it three in a row today.
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Today’s Free Pick:
San Francisco Giants +120 at Arizona Diamondbacks -130 (Total: 9)
Jake Peavy (1-4, 8.47 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (1-3, 4.12 ERA)
This would have been a much more intriguing pitching matchup a few years ago. Entering today, Peavy has looked closer to “not long for the majors” than “guy who won Cy Young Awards not that long ago.” His 8.47 ERA is among the worst in all of baseball for qualifying starters. In fact, joining him in the bottom ten is teammate, and also former massive contract front-line starter Matt Cain. The Giants have some big names, but unfortunately, some big ERA’s to go along with the fame.
So is Peavy done or can he bounce back? It better happen soon, because I’m not sure how long the Giants can keep throwing out two automatic deficits. He has allowed at least four runs in five of his seven starts this season and has allowed seven home runs. That’s good news for an Arizona offense that has been pretty solid at home.
Meanwhile, life hasn’t been easy for Patrick Corbin either. The 2013 All Star in just his second season has been riddled with injurie ever since. He is finally healthy, but has yet to recapture the fine form of three years ago. He has been good against the Giants in his last two starts against them, holding them scoreless over 13 innings in 2015. He also looked a lot stronger in his last outing, which is a very encouraging sign for the D’Backs.
You could flirt with the OVER tonight, but if Corbin has a good start, that is asking a lot of the D’Back offense to have to get six or seven runs on their own. Instead, the line is pretty reasonable to simply bet against Jake Peavy having his first decent start of the season. I know he is a tough, savvy, veteran competitor, and all the other fun labels for a guy who used to be good and just isn’t anymore. But until he shows ANY signs of being good again, he is a good fade bet.