We cashed a big fat winner last night, albeit with some typical reds bullpen drama as the Reds won at anywhere between +155 and +170 depending upon where and when you got the line. I wrote a little early in the day do didn’t benefit from the maximum movement of the line, but hey, certainly not complaining. It looked for a minute like the big payday was going to go up in smoke when an 8-6 lead shrunk to 8-7 with two runners on base. But Tony Cingrani wiggled free and the Reds won a wild one.
Elsewhere in the “chase” in the National League, the Mets loss and the Cardinal and Giant wins were obscured by the Dodgers Dave Roberts, who was easily the story of the night when he PULLED Rich Hill after seven PERFECT innings and well under 100 pitches thrown. He said he was considering Hill’s recent six week stint on the DL and the team’s best interests moving forward… I don’t envy the decision, but man, would have LOVED to see him take the bump in the 8th in pursuit of the Dodgers FIRST perfecto since SANDY KOUFAX…
Meanwhile I am 7-3 ATS over our last ten picks (7-3-1 if you count one no-action wager) with two significant underdogs in the mix. Let’s keep the good times rolling and sneak another winner in amidst the NFL takeover today. Yeah, I’m watching football today too, but nothing wrong with cashing some winners over on the diamond as well!
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Today’s Free Pick:
San Francisco Giants -108 at Arizona Diamondbacks -105 (Total: 9)
Matt Moore (9-11, 4.14 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (12-5, 4.54 ERA)
Tonight is definitely a matchup between two starting pitchers with FAR more game than their meager statlines indicate. Both enter with ERA’s over four and a ton of disappointment attached to the 2016 campaign. However, both have shown some flashes of WHY their respective teams made significant concessions to acquire them in the first place. Moore famously came within an out of a no hitter two weeks ago, then followed it up with just a single run over 5 1/3. His last start was a disaster, allowing six runs in 2 2/3, but I am willing to overlook Coors Field starts when assessing a pitcher’s current mojo. Colorado aside, it is four earned over his last 18 innings.
Meanwhile Greinke has given some flashes lately as well. The reigning Cy Young runner up was absolutely pummeled in LA last outing, allowing eight runs in four innings, but in his three outings prior he allowed just seven runs over 20 innings with two really nice quality starts in the mix.
The point is, I don’t think either is the tomato can their numbers indicate and both have ‘dominating’ potential that could fly up at any time.
But I’ll give the edge to Moore for two main reasons. One, the G-Men should have to pay taxes on Chase Field because they OWN it. They have already clinched a 13th winning series in 14 visits with a dominating 11-3 win yesterday, and the second reason is along the same lines as yesterday’s scores; the Giants’ bats have finally awoken. They went through a pretty historically difficult slump, but you KNEW a statistical regression to the mean was obviously in order. They have scored 23 runs in their last three games and appear back on track.
I’ll take the better team with a little nice mojo and the more consistent starting pitcher over the last month.