Value is the name of the game as you glance over what Wednesday’s MLB betting slate has to offer you. There are admittedly some crazy underdogs to consider chasing after and a few mild home dogs, but the team that jumps out to me is the Dodgers at home against the hated Giants.
Both of these teams are technically still alive for the NL West title, while the Dodgers remain just one game back and are the one in serious contention. They slipped recently with an ugly 3-7 stretch over their last 10 games, but have an opportunity with this series to regain their footing in the division.
I like their chances to do so and I think Wednesday night’s matchup points toward some money if you back them. Let’s take a closer look and see why:
San Francisco Giants (+172) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-182) Total: 8 (O/U -110)
Don’t worry, I’m not here to sell you on the Giants with the road upset. I’m also not here to tell you the Dodgers are some genius straight up bet. You’re not gaining much on a -182 price and while San Francisco’s line is pretty tempting, I just don’t like them here.
Forget about the Giants and their shaky 26-34 road record or the fact that L.A. tends to play their best ball at Dodger Stadium. I’m not reading much into the Giants holding a 7-6 season series advantage (at the time of this writing), either.
What I’m more concerned about is Derek Holland.
Holland has actually surprisingly been serviceable for the Giants this year. However, he’s prone to hard contact and he’s had some issue with the long ball (12 HR on the road) whenever he leaves AT&T Park. Suffice to say, the confines of one of the league’s safest pitcher-friendly parks might contribute to Holland coming off a bit better than he actually is.
Fans and bettors alike have been able to see that in his starts against the Dodgers this year, where he’s lost twice and given up a combined 12 hits, 9 runs, 9 walks and 2 runs.
None of that sounds great, while two of his starts came way earlier in the year when L.A. was still struggling considerably.
The Dodgers are stacked. With Brian Dozier defying an irregular heart beat and L.A. lining up viable right-handed bats, this becomes a more daunting task than usual for Holland.
If you look closer, Holland has some serious issues against quality right-handed bats. All 16 of his homers given up this year have come from the right side of the plate, while he sees a 16% jump in his fly ball rate (41%) and a 27% jump in his hard hit rate (45%) when facing righties.
The park factor could still aid Holland and it’s not like the Dodgers have never cratered in an opportune spot. However, they’ve had success against him already in 2018 specifically, do tend to come to life at home and remain flat out stacked with right-handed power.
Matt Kemp is struggling but mashes southpaws as well as anyone. Manny Machado was acquired to beef up an already lethal offense, Yasiel Puig is an underrated low-order masher and the likes of Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy can hold their own against that side of the plate.
Oh, and then there’s Chris Taylor, who hasn’t even been needed some nights. That’s how stacked the Dodgers are right now.
Long-winded pro-Dodgers rant aside, I’m shooting for the Dodgers to win by two runs. Vegas obviously likes them as a straight up favorite, but I think they have the pitching to hold the Giants in check and the clear edge offensively to pull out a decisive home win.
GTBets offers solid value with that bet at +107 and it’s only better if you can find it bigger elsewhere.