Giants vs. Reds Pick – May 5th

We got back on the winning MLB track last night with a healthy underdog winner in the Milwaukee Brewers 5-4 win over rival St. Louis. It may be getting redundant, but the Brewers tacked four earned runs on Adam Wainwright in just five innings as the former Cy Young winner has yet to notch a quality start this season and his ERA is over six with a WHIP of almost two. It was a pretty easy underdog selection, and frankly, a little surprising to be at +138.

We have a new slate of series tonight and none get more glamorous than the New York Yankees at Wrigley for the weekend to meet the defending World Series Champion Cubs. This is the World Series that FOX execs have ratings wet dreams about, and even in early May, this thing is going to be a blockbuster. The two first-place teams get things going this afternoon at 2:20pm with Michael Pineda and Kyle Hendricks facing off, and will commence with a Sunday Night Baseball showdown on ESPN.

Elsewhere, Stephen Strasburg and the 19-9 Nats look to stretch their growing division lead in Philadelphia tonight, the Brewers try to stay hot at the scuffling Pirates, and the Diamondbacks and Rockies battling for first place in the National League West.

Today’s MLB Pick:

San Francisco Giants +100 at Cincinnati Reds -110 (Total: 9)
Matt Cain (2-0, 2.30 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 7.20 ERA)

At first glance, it seems like a mismatch. A team going to the “lousy” Reds with a nearly FIVE RUN starting pitcher ERA advantage. But so far in 2017, it isn’t the Reds who are lousy, it is the Giants. San Fran has the worst record in the National League at 11-18 and the worst run differential at -37. Meanwhile, the Reds are at .500 and other than their Milwaukee problem, would have the second best record in the NL.

Bronson Arroyo hasn’t been great, as evidenced y the gaudy ERA, but if were to pull a start out of the time machine tonight is the night. He has a 2.90 career ERA against the Giants and the Reds are 36-24 against San Fran over the last eight years, the best mark of any Giants opponent.

The Reds average nearly a run more a game than the Giants and have been playing really good baseball the last week. Matt Cain’s start has been nice to see, but I don’t think we are going to continue to see 2010 Matt Cain all season long.

The Reds are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Giants are 2-5. I’ll take the hot-hitting home team tonight at near even money.


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