It was a good day on the MLB front, with our even money UNDER pick on the Rockies and Cubs tucking well under the number in a 4-1 Rockies victory. Jon Lester was once again beaten, pulling his ERA up over four and sending his record south of .500. It’s not a great sign for the Cubs, who have been hot and cold both in the batter’s box and on the mound, that their ace is toting a plus-four ERA and their second ace, Jake Arrieta, has been even worse. The Cubs are only a game back, thanks to a weak but balanced division. If they were East or West, it might be getting close to concern time for the reigning champs.
Elsewhere, the Reds capped off an impressive four-game sweep of division rival and long-time kryptonite, St. Louis. The Giants won a wild one over the Brewers 9-5 in ten innings and Nationals won the battle of the Beltway 6-1 over rival Baltimore.
It should be a good opening weekend night of MLB action with some new series on the slate, and despite the lack of a real rivalry or marquee pitching matchup, there are some nice lines to choose from tonight. It’s been a nice little run to get back on the plus money side, going 6-2-1 with a few underdogs in the mix. Let’s keep it rolling tonight and start a big weekend.
Today’s MLB Pick:
Minnesota Twins +110 at San Francisco Giants -118 (Total: 7.5)
Ervin Santana (7-3, 2.44 ERA) vs. Matt Moore (2-6, 5.22 ERA)
If you are looking for a nice underdog value tonight, look no further than one of the three most profitable road wagers in all of baseball this season, the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are a nice 18-8 straight up on the road, one of the best marks in all of baseball, and they are sending a pitcher who would be in consideration to start the All Star Game were it not for the existence of the unhittable Dallas Kuechel.
Getting a pitcher with a three-plus run ERA advantage facing the lightest hitting team in the National League at a plus-money number is always a pretty favorable situation. The Twins have been excellent on the road as well, a big part of the surprising AL Central leading status. The Giants have been decent at home, comparatively to their overall results, but are still a game under .500.
Matt Moore has delivered quality starts in four of his last five outings, so his numbers are a little misleading. He has been decent, not dominant, but decent since a disastrous April/early May. That is the reason for the low 7.5 total, and the reason I am not automatically pounding the OVER.
Ervin Santana introduces a little risk/reward to our equation tonight. He has allowed one or less runs in seven of ten starts – dominating stuff. In his other three, he allowed six, five and seven in his most recent outing. I’ll bet on “good Ervin” tonight, given the pitcher-friendly park and even more pitcher-friendly Giants lineup.
Today’s MLB Pick: MINNESOTA TWINS TO WIN +110