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Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants MLB Pick – August 7th

We picked up the win last night when we backed the Seattle Mariners as they played against the Texas Rangers. The Mariners had this seemingly wrapped up as Wade LeBlanc cruised through the first six innings, allowing no runs on just one hit and the M’s had built up a 3-0. LeBlanc gave up a hit to the leadoff hitter in the seventh inning, and Seattle decided to pull him in favor of the newly acquired Adam Warren.

Warren came into the game and immediately tried to give it away. He walked the first batter he faced, gave up an RBI double to the next batter, and then hit the third with a pitch. With that, Warren’s day was done, and by the end of the inning, the Rangers had tied the game up at three. The Mariners were able to gut it out though and won the game in the twelfth inning on a Ryon Healy RBI single, and we cashed our ticket. They made us sweat it out more than we probably should have, but either way, we won the bet and will get right back at it today as we break down the game between the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.

The Houston Astros are in San Francisco Tuesday for game two of a quick two-game series with the Giants. The Astros took game one last night in a stunning comeback as they trailed the entire game and were down to their last out before Marwin Gonzalez hit a three-run homer to give them the lead in the ninth inning. Giants starter, rookie sensation Dereck Rodriguez, pitched seven sterling innings, allowing no runs on just three hits, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the game for him, and he ended up with a no-decision.

Starting today for the Astros is Dallas Keuchel (9-9 3.61 ERA), and for the Giants, it is Madison Bumgarner (4-4 2.97 ERA). The Astros are -107 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven runs. First pitch is scheduled for 12:45 PM PST from AT&T Park in San Francisco.

If you don’t follow the Astros close you might have looked at Dereck Rodriguez’s stat line last night and been surprised. How did this mighty Astros offense struggle so badly against a rookie pitcher? But if you had taken a look at the lineup that was actauly on the field last night, you would have realized that the heart and soul of this lineup is missing. Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa are all on the 10-day DL right now and did not play.

The Astros are still playing well without their best guys, but the bats have noticeably quieted down a bit, and understandably so. This depleted Astros lineup will have their hands full tonight when they must face Giants ace, Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner had a late start to the season as he was injured, but now that he is all stretched out, he is back to his dominating ways. Bumgarner has yet to give up more than four runs in any start this season and has allowed two runs or fewer in seven out of his eleven starts on the year. Madison has been just about unhittable at home this season as he is sporting a 2.01 ERA at AT&T Park, while his road ERA is over two full runs higher at 4.44.

That has been the case for most of this Giants team this season. Great at home, terrible on the road. On the season, the Giants are nine games over .500 at home and a dismal nine games under .500 on the road. If the Giants got to play all their games at home this season, they would be a World Series contender. Instead, they are mostly out of the playoff chase as they are buried in fourth place in the NL West Division.

The Astros will turn to Dallas Keuchel today as they look to complete the sweep. Keuchel really struggled for much of the season, and his nine losses are amongst the league leaders. But recently he seems to have dialed it back in. Keuchel has won seven out of his last eight decisions, and in July he went 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA. The Astros will need Keuchel to continue this hot pitching as they just got the bad news that fellow starter Lance McCullers will be out until the playoffs start with an injury.

What a great pitcher’s duel we have on our hands tonight. Don’t let that ugly record for Keuchel fool you, this guy is elite and is back to pitching well after a slow start to the season. I just don’t see how this Astros lineup, that is a shell of its former self, is going to be able to score against the Giants today.

They couldn’t score against Dereck Rodriguez yesterday, and I don’t expect them to score much against Madison Bumgarner today. The game will likely be a similar one to last nights, a low scoring, tight affair. But I just can’t pass up on the value of backing the Giants as home dogs. San Francisco has shown all year long they are a great home team and with their ace on the mound, I expect a full effort from them tonight.

As a general rule, I stay away from betting the under on a game total of seven or below, it is just too hard to stay under that low of a number, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if this were another very low scoring game. But in the end, I think the Giants will find a way to win this one tonight. Give me the San Francisco Giants as small home underdogs tonight in game two at -103!

The Bet: San Francisco Giants -103

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