Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves World Series Game 5 Pick – MLB October 31, 2021

The Atlanta Braves can put an end to the World Series home at Truist Park on Sunday night. They need only one more win to send the Houston Astros back to Texas without anything to celebrate.

This has been a revenge tour for the Astros, but it’s going to come up as a failure if they don’t get this series back to Houston.

The Braves were backed by a productive bullpen game last night in Game 4. Kyle Wright was in for the most work, as he went 4.1 innings with 1 earned run allowed. The Astros just couldn’t come up with runners on base.

It isn’t like they didn’t get on against Wright. The Astros had 5 hits and 3 walks against Wright, though they weren’t able to capitalize. That’s a tough one for the Astros.

Zack Greinke lasted 4 innings with 4 hits and no walks allowed. Greinke recorded 3 strikeouts in his effort in Game 4 to help give his team a chance.

The offense didn’t offer him much run support in a game where Greinke deserved a win. Jose Altuve did his best to tie this series up as well. However, a guy like Alex Bregman that went 0-of-5 in the No. 3 hole hurts.

The Astros are going to point to Framber Valdez to come up big and force a Game 6. Note that Game 6 and Game 7 will be at Minute Maid Park in Texas. This isn’t a place where the Braves would like to go.

The Braves know that they can win in Houston, but giving the Astros any momentum going back home is going to put the pressure back on Atlanta. Framber Valdez is getting the call after he struggled earlier in the season.

Atlanta has Tucker Davidson listed as the starter for Game 5. In other words, expect another bullpen game from the Braves. It worked last night, but we’ll see if the Astros can cash in this type with RISP. Head below for our free Astros vs. Braves World Series Game 5 pick on October 31, 2021.

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Astros -1.5 (+142) -115 Over 8.5 (-119)
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-162) +106 Under 8.5 (-101)
Team Data Houston Astros Atlanta Braves
Overall Record 103-73 98-77
Away/Home Record 47-41 49-38
Batting Average .268 .244
Batting Average Away/Home .264 .246
Runs Per 9 5.38 5.04
Team ERA 3.81 3.84
Team ERA Away/Home 4.05 3.89

Astros vs. Braves Prediction:

Framber Valdez didn’t last long against the Astros earlier in this season. He was tagged for 8 hits and 5 earned runs in 2 innings of work at Minute Maid Park. Valdez hasn’t cared much for pitching at home, and has been more effective on the road.

He posted an ERA of 2.88 and a 1.14 WHIP on the road this season. Needed in a big spot at Fenway Park against the Red Sox in the ALCS, Valdez came up with a gem of a performance.

He held the Red Sox to 3 hits and 1 earned run through 8 innings of work. Valdez can be good, and the ‘Stros need him to be much better than what happened in his first appearance in the World Series.

Any sense of Valdez struggling early he’s likely going to get pulled. The Astros have to do what it takes to prolong the World Series. I’m confident that the offense is not going to go away quietly.

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 6-3 overall in their previous nine games versus the Braves
  • 4-2 overall in their previous six postseason games on the road
  • 9-4 overall in their previous 13 games versus a team with a winning record
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games versus a left-handed starter
  • 8-4 overall in their previous 12 games as a favorite


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 9-0 overall in their previous nine games at Truist Park
  • 10-3 overall in their previous 13 games
  • UNDER is 10-3 in their previous 13 games
  • UNDER is 10-4 in their previous 14 games versus the Astros

Tucker Davidson has appeared in just four games this season. He is nothing more than an opener in this game.

Davidson posted an ERA of 3.60 and a 1.15 WHIP through 20 innings in the regular season. In his most recent outing, Davidson allowed 5 hits and 5 earned runs in 2.1 innings against the Red Sox on June 15.

Look for Davidson to pitch an inning, and then the ball will be handed over to the bullpen. The Atlanta bullpen has notched a 2.89 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

That sounds like a bullpen that is capable of carrying the load in another postseason game. That said, I’m going to give the Astros some support in a do-or-die situation. Look for Valdez to come up big and the Astros get the World Series back to Minute Maid Park.


Astros vs. Braves Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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