Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 4 Pick – MLB October 19, 2021

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet for Game 4 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox blew things open for a 12-3 win at Fenway on Sunday night. Jose Urquidy had little to offer last night, as he conceded 5 hits and 5 earned runs in 1.2 innings of work.

Urquidy didn’t give the Astros a chance to win that game, but the offense came up short as well. That goes for the bullpen, which wasn’t able to limit the damage following Urquidy exited the contest. Yimi Garcia was tagged for 3 hits and 3 earned runs through 1.1 innings of work.

That was an ugly look for the Astros no matter how you look at it. The offense scored 3 runs in the top of the 4th against Eduardo Rodriguez, and that was the only runs they could muster up. It was their first time failing to score at least 5 runs in weeks. In fact, after Rodriguez was pulled, the Astros didn’t even get a hit.

The Astros went hitless for five straight innings. That can’t happen in the ALCS. Certainly not against a beatable pitching staff of the Red Sox. The Red Sox took a 2-1 series lead with the victory. They dropped Game 1 at Minute Maid Park, 5-4, but came back on fire with 9 runs in a 9-5 win to stay homefield.

The runs kept coming for the Red Sox last night. They are feeling confident at the moment with 21 runs scored in their last two games. Can the Astros cool the Red Sox off tonight? They’re going to have to or this series is going to get out of reach on Tuesday. Not to say the Astros can’t win three straight games, but it’d be tough.

Zack Greinke is getting the call for the Astros in Game 4. Normally that would be a good thing, but I haven’t seen much from Greinke recently. He has to step up and deliver on Tuesday night. This will be his first start of the postseason after making a spot appearance out of the bullpen on October 10 in the ALDS. Nick Pivetta is expected to counter for the Red Sox. Head below for our free Astros vs. Red Sox pick on October 19, 2021.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Astros +1.5 (-166) +118 Under 10 (-106)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+146) -128 Over 10 (-114)
Team Data Houston Astros Boston Red Sox
Overall Record 99-70 98-72
Away/Home Record 45-39 53-32
Batting Average .265 .261
Batting Average Away/Home .265 .278
Runs Per 9 5.47 5.39
Team ERA 3.87 4.27
Team ERA Away/Home 4.14 4.50

Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction:

Zack Greinke will go into Tuesday night with an ERA of 4.13 and a 1.17 WHIP. That’s been just kind of what you get with Greinke now.

He posted an ERA of 4.03 last season in 12 starts, and he did almost the same in 30 appearances this season. Through his last three outings, Greinke has posted an ERA of 11.12 and a 1.41 WHIP.

In 1 inning against the White Sox on October 10, Greinke had to work hard to get out of that frame. Greinke gave up 2 hits in 21 pitches.

He didn’t allow a run, but I don’t think Dusty Baker was too confident in allowing him to go any further. Greinke certainly isn’t the same pitcher that we saw just a couple of years ago in the desert with the Diamondbacks.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with Greinke. He’s still going to have a job next year, but don’t expect the same elite arm out of him. This isn’t a favorable matchup for Greinke if history is any indicator as well.

The Red Sox have throttled Greinke for a .341 batting average and .401 OBP in 98 at-bats. They’ve tallied 8 home runs and 21 RBIs during that time.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games after a loss
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games on the road
  • 4-8 overall in their previous 12 games versus the NL East
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games versus the AL East
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six postseason games
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games as an underdog

Red Sox

  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 6-0 overall in their previous six games as a favorite
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five postseason games as a favorite
  • 7-0 overall in their previous seven postseason games at Fenway Park
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games after a win
  • OVER is 8-0 in their previous eight games versus the NL West

Nick Pivetta goes into Tuesday evening with an ERA of 4.53 and a 1.30 WHIP. He hasn’t been at his best in Boston.

The Green Monster has been tricky for Pivetta, as he’s posted an ERA of 5.40 and a 1.45 WHIP through 74 innings. On the road, Pivetta has registered an ERA of 3.75 and a 1.18 WHIP.

While the ‘Stros didn’t perform well last night besides one inning, they’ve been hitting the ball. Game 3 was the first game in which the Red Sox didn’t score at least 5 runs since September 30 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

After getting tied up last night, I could see the Astros getting back on track at the dish. There should be runs in the double digits on the board in this one, so a look at the OVER isn’t a bad play here.


Astros vs. Red Sox Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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