Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Pick – MLB October 20, 2021

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox have an ultra important Game 5 scheduled at Fenway Park on Wednesday evening. With first pitch scheduled for 5:08 p.m. EST, this could be the difference in the series. A win in this spot and the loser will have to win back-to-back games.

And as closely contested as this one has been going, it could be tough to win two straight contests. The Red Sox looked like they were going to advance to 3-1 in this series last night. They were in possession of a 2-1 lead for pretty well the entire game.

The Red Sox scored 2 runs in the bottom of the 1st after going down by a run. That score held all the way through to the 8th inning. The Astros scored in the top of the 8th to tie things up at 2-2, and then exploded for 7 runs in the 9th.

The Astros left Fenway Park with a 9-2 win last night. It was a much needed win or they would have been facing elimination on Wednesday night. That might be the changing point of this series, but the Red Sox are still at home tonight and have Chris Sale on the bump.

I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing, though. Sale has struggled mightily to get back into top form. It took him a while to get back into the rotation after an elbow injury. Sale worked hard to get back into the rotation, but he hasn’t been the same pitcher. I think a full offseason will do him some good.

Has he been terrible? No, Sale has been solid, but for a pitcher of his caliber, solid is not good enough. He’s making good money to be an elite pitcher. That hasn’t been happening, but we’ll see if Sale can pull out his vintage form on Wednesday evening at Fenway Park. The Astros are expected to counter with Framber Valdez on the hill. Head below for our free Astros vs. Red Sox pick on October 20, 2021.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Astros +1.5 (-174) +116 Under 9.5 (-110)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+146) -126 Over 9.5 (-110)
Team Data Houston Astros Boston Red Sox
Overall Record 100-70 98-73
Away/Home Record 46-39 55-33
Batting Average .265 .261
Batting Average Away/Home .265 .277
Runs Per 9 5.49 5.37
Team ERA 3.86 4.30
Team ERA Away/Home 4.14 4.50

Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction:

Chris Sale has recorded an ERA of 3.16 and a 1.34 WHIP through 44.1 innings this season. Again, there isn’t anything wrong with that at all, but he just hasn’t been as consistent as we’ve come to know from him.

Every time Sale stepped on the bump you knew that you were going to get 7 solid innings of work from him. In 2018, Sale posted an ERA of 2.11 in 27 games with the Red Sox. He hasn’t been in that same lockdown form.

In two appearances in the postseason, Sale has been knocked around for a 14.73 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. He appeared in 2.2 innings earlier in this series against the Astros but was pulled.

Sale conceded 5 hits and a run during that time. If he stayed on the mound, it could have been a lot uglier than just 1 earned run allowed. Prior to that performance, Sale was tagged for 4 hits and 5 earned runs in 1 inning against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The offense was able to bail Sale out, though, as they scored 14 runs in a 14-6 win. Note that in his last three starts, Sale has been unable to pitch more than 2.2 innings. Alex Cora has been quick to pull the plug on Sale if he looks off, which has been more common recently.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games on the road
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games at Fenway Park
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten games versus the American League
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games as an underdog
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four ALCS games
  • OVER is 5-0 in Framber Valdez’s previous five games after scoring 5 or more runs

Red Sox

  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 9-3 overall in their previous 12 games
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games versus the Astros
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games at Fenway Park
  • OVER is 7-0 in their previous seven games
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games as a favorite
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four postseason games as a favorite

Framber Valdez is going into Wednesday with a 3.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the regular season. However, he’s been having trouble in the postseason like Sale. Valdez has posted an ERA of 7.71 and a 2.43 WHIP through 7 innings. He’s allowed 6 earned runs during that stretch, including 13 hits. I think we’d surely see another 10 runs for a total in this series. However, at 9.5 runs, I think we’re getting some great value in this one getting into the double digits.


Astros vs. Red Sox Pick
OVER 9.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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