Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox ALDS Game 3 Pick – October 10, 2021

The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox are back at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday night. After a day of NFL football, you have more football on Sunday Night Football in a monster matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. There’s also Game 3 of the ALDS between the Astros and White Sox.

The Astros can complete the sweep on Sunday night in Chicago. They are coming off a 9-4 win on Friday to take a commanding 2-0 lead. Lucas Giolito just didn’t have it, as he conceded 4 hits and 4 earned runs in 4.1 innings of work. The Astros tacked on 5 runs in the bottom of the 7th to pull away for good.

It isn’t like Framber Valdez held up either. He was tagged for 7 hits and 4 earned runs through 4.1 innings. The offense came to his rescue with big run support, though. The Houston bullpen held nicely with no runs allowed across 4.2 innings.

The second-highest scoring offense in the regular season showed up in that one. They also had a solid showing on October 7 in Game 1. Lance Lynn didn’t last as long as he hoped, as the hot Houston bats got to him for 6 hits and 5 earned runs. Pitching has ruled in other postseason series, but the White Sox have gotten the memo so far.

With a win tonight, the Astros can be the first team in the majors to advance to the next round. They are playing like a team on a mission, and certainly look motivated to show that they don’t need any outside assistance to have success in the postseason. You know that has to be in the back of their minds.

Luis Garcia is receiving the call for the ‘Stros in Game 3. He has an opportunity to bring the Astros to the ALCS tonight. Countering Garcia looking to force a fourth game is Dylan Cease. Cease had had a solid campaign, but hasn’t liked seeing Houston in 2021. Head below for our free Astros vs. White Sox pick on October 10, 2021.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Astros +1.5 (-190) +109 Over 8.5 (-110)
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+165) -119 Under 8.5 (-110)
Team Data Houston Astros Chicago White Sox
Overall Record 97-67 93-71
Away/Home Record 44-37 53-28
Batting Average .268 .256
Batting Average Away/Home .266 .257
Runs Per 9 5.46 5.11
Team ERA 3.76 3.78
Team ERA Away/Home 3.98 3.53

Astros vs. White Sox Prediction:

The Astros looked motivated all season to show that they don’t need to use their “help” to have an advantage at the plate. This is still a very dangerous team whether they are or not.
The Astros finished second in the majors with 5.38 runs scored per 9.

Including the postseason, they’re up to 5.46 runs per 9 innings. They were first in the major leagues with a team batting average of .268.

Dylan Cease is going into Sunday night with an ERA of 3.91 and a 1.25 WHIP through 167.1 innings. He was solid to close out the season with an ERA of 0.63 and a 1.12 WHIP across 15 innings.

However, look at the teams that Cease did that against. He neutralized the Rangers, Indians, and Tigers, none of which are in the postseason and were inconsistent offensively. The Astros have had success against Cease.

Cease has a 6.60 ERA and record of 0-3 against the Astros. The ‘Stros have an impressive OBP of .423 with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs versus Cease in 35 at-bats. Considering how well they’re swinging the bats, I’m confident in them doing something tonight.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine games versus the White Sox
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six postseason games
  • 6-1 overall in their previous seven third game of a series
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four games versus a right-handed starter
  • Luis Garcia ERA (Last 3): 2.20

White Sox

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four postseason games
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six divisional round games
  • 2-5 overall in their previous seven games versus the AL West
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games at home versus a team with a winning record
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five postseason games at Guaranteed Rate Field
  • Dylan Cease ERA (Last 3): 0.63

Luis Garcia was one of the most underrated members of the Astros’ rotation. The 24-year-old rookie posted an ERA of 3.30 and a 1.17 WHIP through 30 games. He wasn’t untouchable, but the White Sox probably thought so.

The White Sox are hitting just .198 with no home runs and 1 RBI versus Garcia in 23 at-bats. Garcia is coming off a 2-1 win against the White Sox in June, as he allowed just 1 earned run across 7 innings of work. That performance includes 8 strikeouts for Garcia.

In the biggest start of his career, look for Garcia to come up big at Guaranteed Rate Field. If he isn’t perfect, then I still have faith in the hot Astros’ offense doing enough damage against Cease and the White Sox bullpen. At plus money, all of the value is on the Astros in Game 3 tonight.


Astros vs. White Sox Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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